Political Cycle will Drive the Chinese Economy This Year – Richard McGregor
From Financial Times:
Economists struggling for a fix on the trajectory of China’s economy this year have focused on traditional drivers of growth, such as exports, investment and even consumer spending.
But most have ignored what may be the key propellant pushing output higher – top-level politics, in the form of the impending Communist party congress at the end of the year.
The party congress, held every five years, will consecrate the new membership of the ruling Politburo and be followed in March 2008 by the formation of a fresh government, with ministerial changes.[Full Text]