Assessing China’s ASAT Program – Desmond Ball

From Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability’s website:

On 11 January 2007, the PRC successfully tested a direct-ascent, kinetic-kill anti-satellite (ASAT) vehicle, destroying an inactive Chinese Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) weather satellite (launched in 1999). The satellite was in a polar orbit, at an altitude of 865 km (537 miles), and was attacked when it passed over the Xichang Space Centre in Sichuan province. The satellite broke into more than 900 pieces, generating more debris than any previous space event and threatening many operational spacecraft.

The launch vehicle was probably a mobile, solid-fuel KT-1 missile, a version of the DF-21 MRBM, with a range of 1,700 km to 2,500 km, although according to some accounts it was a KT-2, also mobile and solid-fuel, based on DF-31 IRBM/ICBM technology, with a range of more than 6,000 km. The launch vehicle and warhead were guided to the target by ground-based radars. [Full Text]

Desmond Ball is a professor at the Strategic Defence Studies Centre of The Australian National University. See also China’s ASAT Test: Motivations and Implications, a new INSS Special Report, written by Phillip C. Saunders and Charles D. Lutes:

China launched a direct-ascent ASAT on January 11, 2007, which struck a Chinese FY-1 weather satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO). The ASAT’s kinetic kill vehicle was likely boosted by a two-stage mobile launcher based on a DF-¬≠21 medium-range ballistic missile. China reportedly conducted several previous tests of the system; it is unclear if the same configuration was used for all the tests. The successful test demonstrates a Chinese capability to threaten a number of U.S. satellites in LEO, which may include capabilities for reconnaissance, remote sensing, surveillance, electronic surveillance, and meteorology, as well as some civilian communications satellites with military applications. These satellites and the International Space Station are also at increased, although not significant, risk from the debris cloud created by the recent ASAT test.

The direct-ascent ASAT appears to be part of a larger Chinese ASAT program that includes ground-based lasers and jamming of satellite signals. Chinese analysts, scientists, and strategists have written extensively about ASAT weapons and potential means of countering U.S. military uses of space. A recent Department of Defense report suggests that China appears to be developing a “ground-based laser designed to damage or blind imaging satellites.” According to a news article, the Director of the National Reconnaissance Office confirmed that a Chinese laser illuminated a U.S. satellite. In addition, jamming could disrupt U.S. military communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation and targeting signals. The exact performance characteristics of Chinese systems are unknown, but deployment of a range of ASAT capabilities could provide flexible options to temporarily or permanently deny U.S. space capabilities. The Chinese direct-ascent ASAT program appears to be in the research and development phase, and the intent or timing of operational deployment remains unknown. [Full Text]

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