Assessing China’s Economic Rise: Strengths, Weaknesses and Implications – Albert Keidel
From Foreign Policy Research Institute website:
Since its market reforms began in 1978, China’s economy has grown at close to 10 percent a year, according to official data, and has even accelerated since the year 2000. Internationally accepted measures of China’s growth show it to be even faster than officially reported. This growth success is no flash in the pan. It will likely continue at better than decade-doubling rates until close to the middle of the century.
The implications of China’s continued rapid growth include China’s overtaking the U.S. in overall GDP terms sometime around 2040. Such a large and fast-growing economy will change global patterns of production, trade, and pricing, and also implies adjustments in the balance of global military force projection capabilities. [Full Text]
Albert Keidel is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.