From Financial Times:
Since 2006, financial reforms in China have been stuck in a rut. But for a number of reasons – most simply because Beijing now has little choice – we are now convinced that financial reform is going to be a far bigger part of the China story over the next three years.
The basic reason for this belief is not the intentions of regulators but brute economic reality.
Over the past 20 years Chinese exports grew by 19 per cent a year in dollar terms, and average export growth was 27 per cent in 2002-08.
Those growth rates depended principally on debt-turbocharged consumption growth in the US, which will not return any time soon. So for five years we are likely to see exports growing far more slowly than at any point in recent history – our guess is no more than 5 per cent on average in 2009-2012.
