China’s reform and China’s rise have simultaneously been plunged into the deep end. These are two separate zones, not just one. They both are impacting the future of the Chinese people. We cannot attend to just one; both must be taken into account. China is groping for stones in the midst of the great river of human history. China was pushed into this river. There is no escape route from reform, nor is there an escape route from ascendance. The only way out is to move towards the other shore.

“Retweeted” 577 times and left with 487 comments as of May 14 (a few retweets have since disappeared), Hu’s post has its supporters and detractors. But as often happens on his Weibo, the detractors here are more vocal. Deng Bolun has translated select comments. Read the original post and all of the comments on Weibo.

PinchHim: What does “rise” mean? Is it the ability to face off with the U.S. military? Based on this standard, the 200-some small- and medium-sized countries never have and will never rise. They’ll never cross the river, will they? China’s rise won’t be marked by a military rise, but the rise of human rights. If there is no rise of human rights, China won’t withstand a single blow in a military face-off.
把掐他：“崛起”是什么意思？ 有能力与美国军事对峙才叫崛起？按照这个标准，世界上二百多个中小国家，从来没有，也不可能崛起，它们是不是永远过不了河了？中国的崛起，标志不是军事崛起，而是人权的崛起。没有人权的崛起，中国在任何军事对抗中都将是不堪一击的。

FutureOfFutureOfFreedom: The officials aren’t even willing to publicly announce their personal wealth. What’s the use of reform!
自由未来的未来：官员连个人财产都不敢公布，改革有嘛用！

SillyLittleWeasel: Groan. Editor Hu wants to outline an even scarier future for those of us who can’t afford to see a doctor or buy a house. He tells us, “You’re all very happy now.”
傻瓜阿狸：哼哼，胡编想给看不起病，买不起房的我们勾画一个更可怕的未来。告诉我们，你们现在很幸福。

DesertPoplarHy: What is the opposite shore like? Like North Korea or Taiwan?
沙漠胡杨hy：对岸是什么样的。是朝鲜还是台湾？

SunJianguoOk: Where is the opposite shore? What’s there? Does it have the human rights, freedom and constitutional democracy that other earthlings enjoy? Solid policy comes from deliberation; a country’s nature and fundamental structure are very important. Ours needs to be reconstructed. A foundation must be lain for long-term development. The one-party system is definitely not going to work. Peaceful, rational and good-intentioned competition must be allowed! Oppose civil war, palace coups, brutal in-fighting and disgusting internal conflict! China will go toward a civilized rebirth! With freedom lighting the way!
孙 建国ok：对岸在哪儿？对岸有什么？有地球人都有的人权，自由，宪政民主吗？具体的政策出于商讨，国家的性质与基本架构很重要，需要建立重构，以为未来长 远发展奠定基础。一党制肯定不行了，要允许和平理性善意的竞争！反对内战，宫廷政变，残酷内斗，恶性内讧！中国走向文明新生！自由照亮前路！

JiaoChengJun: I completely disagree with the notion that Chinese reform has gone into the “deep end.” The concept is vague, it confuses everyone. Just say it. Should China Westernize? Should it have a separation of powers? Should multiple parties rotate through power? Why are you so talkative?! You should just ask the people.
焦成君：非常不同意中国改革进入到什么‘深水区’的提法。概念模糊、让百姓糊涂。就直说吧，中国要不要全面西化、要不要三权分立、要不要多党轮替不就完了吗还啰嗦个啥！下面就该问问百姓吧。

UnmatchedHunger: Mr. Hu’s ass-kissing garbage talk. Two deep ends? Reform and rise don’t happen simultaneously? So-called logic and complexity are just fig leaves to coverall you  lackeys! Grope your mom’s stones and cross the river, there’s obviously a bridge!
盖世太饿：胡氏舔菊废话体。两个深水区？改革和崛起没有交集？所谓理性、复杂都你们这些狗奴才的遮羞布！摸你妈的石头过河，桥明明就在那！

MaoMaoLovesFreedom2010: The masses crossed the river long ago. It’s just you and your master that still pretend to be holding on to the river stones as a matter of life and death!
毛毛爱自由2010：人民群众早就过河了，就你和你主子还假装摸着石头死活不放手呢！

YuZhengzhi: The only way out is for the Chinese Communist Party to pocket its pride and stop making empty calls for “serving the people.” Instead it should accept accountability to the people by realizing competitive elections for People’s Congress representatives, then gradually establishing a civil society of freedom, democracy and rule of law.
余正之：唯一的出路就是中国共产党放下架子，不是空喊“为人民服务”这样的假话，而是接受人民的监督，先推进实现人大代表公开全民竞争选举，逐步建立自由、民主、法治的公民社会。

DukeOfHarmony: Sh*t, ten years into reform we were told we’re in the river, 20 years later we were told we’re still in the river, and 30 years on we’re still told we’re in the river. It’s getting deeper and deeper! If we keep going, won’t the entire population be “reformed” into the sea? How come we never make it to shore?
大公大同：靠，10年了告诉我们在河里，20年了告诉我们还在河里，30年了告诉我们仍然在河里，还越来越深！继续下去，是不是把全国人民“改革”进大海里啊？怎么老是上不了岸？

GraceLHY: Editor Hu’s style is my favorite. Every character is a Chinese character. Each sentence is disconnected from the next. He wrote 140 characters but said absolutely nothing. None of it resembles the Chinese language~
雍容LHY：胡总这种风格我最喜欢了，每个字都是汉字，每一句都和另一句没关系，写了140字还是啥都没说，全不像汉语~

Pekinggdq: The problem is you’ll never reach the other shore.
pekinggdq：问题是你永远到不了对岸.

© Anne.Henochowicz for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Deng Bolun, Global Times, Hu xijin, sina weibo, weibo
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Mr. Wang, 57, is regarded as one of the most successful Chinese real estate tycoons. His $17 billion empire includes huge commercial property developments, five-star hotels, tourist resorts, a film and television production company and Asia’s largest cinema network.

Now, by paying $2.6 billion to acquire AMC, the Wanda Group is extending its reach globally. The deal, announced Sunday, is still subject to the approval of United States regulators, though there are no hints it will be blocked. The purchase signifies a new era for Mr. Wang and in China’s development. Companies here are moving away from low-cost manufacturing and going abroad in search of natural resources and global consumer brands, part of an effort to upgrade the nation’s economy.

…

Wanda is a private company in a nation dominated by state-owned enterprises. But the AMC deal is closely aligned with the Chinese government’s priorities, which include encouraging Chinese companies to “go global,” pushing an overhaul of Chinese media and entertainment properties and placing greater emphasis on consumer spending.

Policy makers in Beijing also want to bolster China’s “soft power” capabilities to extend its cultural influence internationally, and the film industry is considered one of the most promising avenues for doing so.

The article also notes that Wang got his start in Dalian, the coastal city where Bo Xilai kickstarted his political career, though Wang dismissed any notion that his ties to Bo would threaten Wanda. AMC’s chief executive hailed the proposed deal, which both sides claim will create the world’s largest cinema operator, as a “unique combination.” For the Los Angeles Times, Richard Verrier and David Pierson write that Wanda’s bid for AMC may spur other purchases by Chinese investors:

The deal announced Sunday — which pairs China’s biggest theater operator with the second-largest chain in the U.S. — marks the largest investment to date by a Chinese company in the U.S. entertainment industry. Most of the deal making has been Hollywood companies striking business deals in China.

But Wanda’s move to buy AMC could turn the traffic in the other direction, setting the stage for a string of similar moves by other Chinese investors looking to diversify and raise their global profile by scooping up blue-chip American entertainment properties. AMC is owned by Apollo Investment Fund, Carlyle Group and other investors who bought the company in 2004.

Some see parallels with the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Japanese companies acquired a number of prized U.S. assets, including Hollywood studios such as MCA-Universal and Columbia Pictures and crown jewels such as New York’s Rockefeller Center and California’s Pebble Beach golf course.

“More and more Chinese companies are going to try to come in and buy American businesses, just like Japanese companies did in the 1980s,” said Sean Yu, a Los Angeles-based executive director at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney who advises Chinese investors. “They want to increase their prestige and their reputation.”

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: AMC Entertainment, Bo Xilai, dalian, hollywood, soft power, Wanda Group, Wang Jianlin
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Armed with video cameras, Mr Wu’s researchers have already travelled to 50 villages in 10 provinces across China.

So far they have collected more than 600 memories from the famine, the result of a disastrous political campaign launched by Mao Zedong.

The Great Leap Forward was supposed to propel China into a new age of communism and plenty – but it failed spectacularly.

Agriculture was disrupted as private property was abolished and people were forced into supposedly self-sufficient communes.

Interviews for this new project reveal that even though the famine happened a long time ago – between late 1958 and 1962 – memories are still sharp.

Read more about the Great Leap Forward via CDT, including efforts by Chinese historian Yang Jisheng and Dutch historian Frank Dikötter to document this period of history.

© Sophie Beach for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | One comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: famine, great leap forward, Mao Zedong, PRC history
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The improved ties have been highlighted by this week’s visit to Beijing by Israel’s military chief and a training mission to Israel by the Chinese paramilitary force that, among other things, polices the restive Tibetan and Muslim Uighur regions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to travel to China in the coming weeks.

[...] Chen told the official China Daily that China “attaches importance to the ties with the Israeli military and is willing to make concerted efforts with the Israeli side to deepen pragmatic cooperation.”

In a statement released by the Israeli military, Gantz mentioned a commitment to developing the relationship, including “joint courses that are scheduled to take place.” It did not elaborate.

Such comments are a remarkable turnaround from just a few years ago, when ties deteriorated after the failed arms deals.

In recent years, China has often found itself in the middle of tensions between Israel and Iran, which has bought Chinese military technology despite objections from the U.S. and other countries. For more on this, see a previous CDT post, “Beijing Steers ‘Tricky Path’ With Iran.” Read more about Chinese relations with Israel via CDT.

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Bo, 24 years old, appeared at ease as shook the hands of faculty and walked across the platform during commencement for Harvard’s Kennedy School, where he earned his master’s in public policy during the ceremony at John F. Kennedy Memorial Park. Bo is the son of Bo Xilai, the ousted party chief of Chongqing, China, and his wife Gu Kailai, who is under suspicion in China over the killing of a British businessman.

After the ceremony, Bo, wearing a black gradation robe and crimson hood, declined to comment to The Wall Street Journal.

“I’d just like to have my own day today,” he said, as he walked with two friends and joined a group of others to chatting outside the commencement tent.

Slate’s William J. Dobson details the decade-long link between the Chinese Communist Party and Harvard University, looking beyond the educations of “princelings” such as Bo Guagua to call attention to a much less publicized but far more important training program for future party leaders:

A little more than 10 years ago, the Chinese Communist Party embarked on an ambitious effort to give its public officials the training, skills, and expertise they need to govern in the increasingly complex situations that test an authoritarian regime’s resilience. Carefully vetted officials—a selection of some of the regime’s rising stars—were sent abroad to study in specially designed programs at some of the world’s finest universities. The first crop was sent to Harvard. Today, Chinese authorities have expanded the program to include Stanford, Oxford, Cambridge, the University of Tokyo, and others. A year ago I met with Lu Mai, the head of the China Development Research Foundation, who oversees the program. “This was a big decision,” he told me. “We have already sent more than 4,000 [officials]. I don’t know any other country that sends on that scale.”

The Harvard curriculum, specially designed for this program, resembles a midcareer executive course. Housed at the Kennedy School’s Ash Center—the same graduate school Bo Xilai’s son attended—Harvard faculty teach Chinese officials leadership, strategy, and public management. Some of the lectures are given by big-name Harvard professors, including Roger Porter and Joseph Nye. Although the classes are restricted to Chinese officials, these party members have ample opportunity to mix with the school’s faculty and general student body. Borrowing from the case-study method made famous at the university’s business school, the coursework zeroes in on specific topics such as U.S. policy and government, how the media operates, negotiation strategy, and even social media. The classroom work is supplemented by site visits to places like the Massachusetts State House, the Boston Redevelopment Authority, and larger institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations. Besides its main leadership program, which lasts eight weeks, Harvard runs more tailored courses, too. One is focused on crisis management. Another is entirely devoted to the Shanghai municipal government. A new energy program will bring together executives from the China Southern Grid Power Corporation. “The goal is to help the Chinese government work in this environment of globalization,” says Lu. “To catch up.”

Harvard may be a competitive institution, but it’s nothing compared to being selected by the party’s Central Organization Department—the highly secretive body that is in charge of making all party appointments across China and chooses the handful of officials sent abroad to study each year. (The department’s work is done almost entirely in secret. It is housed in an unmarked building less than a mile from Tiananmen Square. A phone call from the Organization Department shows up on your phone as a string of zeroes.) The officials selected can vary: They include municipal officers, mayors, provincial governors, all the way up to central government vice ministers. It’s worth remembering that in a country as populous as China, even a very junior official can have a portfolio that affects millions of people. What they all have in common is that they distinguished themselves as comers. Lu sits proudly when he tells me more than half of the officials sent to Harvard receive a promotion not long after they return to their duties at home, although he admits, “We don’t know if it’s because of the training or because they are already so good. But we try to claim it is because of the training.”

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Bo Guagua, Bo Xilai, chinese communist party, education, gu kailai, Harvard, princelings, scandal
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I’m taking my Godfather into battle!

Hot Topics:

• BJDaily (BJ日报): Beijing Daily
• Show-Off Girl (炫富女), Ma Lihong (马力宏): Weibo user Yang Zilu (@杨紫璐) wrote that her godfather chartered a plane for 8.88 million yuan for himself and Yang to see the London Olympics, posting snazzy photos as well. Some netizens think the “Lihong” Yang mentions is not the pop star Wang Lihong, but instead Zhejiang Province Communist Party Party Provost Ma Lihong.
• Ma Chi + Ferrari + Singapore (马驰+法拉利+新加坡): Reportedly, Ma Chi is the wealthy Sichuan man who died while driving recklessly in Singapore.
• Liu Mingze (刘明泽): Blogger Han Han sued Liu Mingze in January following allegations by Fang Zhouzi that Han Han’s writing is produced by ghostwriters. Liu is said to have sent information about the ghostwriters to Fang. But Han Han withdrew his case against Liu just one day after he had filed at the Shanghai Putuo District Court. Danwei details the Han Han v. Fang case.

Internet “Nicknames” for Security Chief Zhou Yongkang, an alleged backer of Bo Xilai:

• Zhouyong (周永)
• zyKang (zy康)
• zYongK (z永K)

Note: All Chinese-language words are tested using simplified characters. The same terms in traditional characters occasionally return different results.

CDT Chinese runs a project that crowd-sources filtered keywords on Sina Weibo search. CDT independently tests the keywords before posting them, but some searches later become accessible again. We welcome readers to contribute to this project so that we can include the most up-to-date information.

© Anne.Henochowicz for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Beijing Daily, Bo Xilai, Fang Zhouzi, Ferrari, filtered words, Han Han, sensitive words, sina weibo, Wang Lihong, weibo, Zhou Yongkang
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“I met Chen Guangfu this morning. His health situation is okay,” said Ding Xikui, a lawyer authorised by Chen Kegui’s wife to represent her husband.

“His family are not allowed to leave the village. Chen escaped secretly. He came here to tell us what happened that night [when people broke in] and seeks help from the lawyer. He also supports the request from Chen Kegui’s wife to engage us as his lawyer in this case.”

Chen Kegui’s wife hired Ding and Si Weijiang after two other lawyers she had appointed were intimidated and harassed. But officials told the men that they could not act for Chen Kegui unless his wife came to the police station to file paperwork. She is currently in hiding due to fears for her safety.

Reuters’ Sui-Lee Wee met with Chen Guangfu to discuss his son’s case, his own reported torture, his brother’s departure, and other events of the past month.

He said he was restricted from leaving the village and that police in Shandong warned him they would increase the sentence for his son, Chen Kegui, who is being held on an attempted murder charge, if he gave interviews.

“I feel since they are already doing this, why can’t I say something?” Chen Guangfu said late on Wednesday in a teahouse in western Beijing. “I have the power to speak up.”

“I told them their claims have no legal basis, but are based on power or by their will to determine Kegui’s sentence. On this point, I’ll never be able to accept it,” he said, adding he planned to return to his village soon.

Local government and public security bureau officials were not immediately available for comment.

Chen Guangfu said that the security presence around Dongshigu has only intensified since his brother’s escape. As Charles Custer commented at ChinaGeeks in the immediate aftermath of Chen Guangcheng’s escape, this security apparatus had become a significant factor in the local economy, which various parties had a strong interest in sustaining. McClatchy’s Tom Lasseter reported from the area last week on the persistent cordon around the village.

A reporter attempting on Wednesday to walk the stretch of farm fields and groves between [Pengjiazhai] village and Chen’s hometown of Dongshigu was intercepted by two guards at a turn on a small dirt track. Their stools were positioned so that they could easily see anyone crossing to Dongshigu across a remaining flat expanse, the length of about six and a half football fields.

On the highway to Dongshigu, police cars and vans still zipped back and forth, their lights flashing. Men lurked in the meadows.

The continued siege of Dongshigu underscores the punishing weight with which China enforces its version of social order. It suggests, too, the steep costs of such an approach – the inertia of an authoritarian system that becomes difficult to change, and a messy legacy that it must then try to conceal.

See also Chen Guangfu’s earlier account of his torture by local security officers, news of Chen Guangcheng’s arrival in New York and the start of his family’s new life there and more on the Chen Guangcheng saga via CDT.

© Samuel Wade for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Beijing, Chen Guangcheng, Dongshigu, house arrest, legal defense, security guards, torture
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The timing and the description of the Heywood case match all the details that have been released of the death, although the detective who called Lee from the Chongqing police did not disclose a name. “I don’t know who was the victim, who was the suspect,” said Lee, who added, “I don’t get involved in politics.”

Lee did not recall the exact date he received the phone call, but thought it was one week before Wang fled to the consulate. The blood sample never arrived in Connecticut.

However, it appears that Wang had had a preliminary test of the sample performed elsewhere. A businessman familiar with the case said that at the consulate, Wang offered the technical evidence from a test of the blood sample.

“The test confirmed the poisoning. There is physical evidence, a sample of flesh. The forensic evidence is very strong,” said the businessman, who asked not to be quoted by name.

The Telegraph’s Jon Swaine writes that the blood samples suggest that investigators may prove decisively that Neil Heywood was poisoned, a revelation that would have serious consequences for Gu Kailai, Bo Xilai or anyone else involved in the incident.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: blood sample, Bo Xilai, forensics, gu kailai, murder, Neil Heywood, scandal
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If you are interested in participating in this project by submitting and/or translating terms, please contact the CDT editors at CDT [at] chinadigitaltimes [dot] net.

天朝 (tiān cháo): Celestial Empire

The Celestial Empire is an ancient name for China. Recently, netizens have used the term sarcastically to refer to China under the current government. Oftentimes the term is used to suggest that China’s leaders are self-important and have a China-centric view of the world.

网络用语，中国大陆网民对中华人民共和国的称呼，多见于与动漫相关的网站，使用时往往带有讽刺或称颂色彩。

Dragon, symbol of the Celestial Empire

Character combining the characters for “Celestial” and “Kingdom.”

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Post tags: GMH Lexicon, word of the week
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Feeling the warm sun on his face, blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng relaxed in an outdoor playground with his family Sunday, basking in perfect spring weather—and not having to worry about being beaten or harassed for the first time in years.

Chen, his wife, Yuan Weijing, and their two kids started a new life in a quiet, leafy Greenwich Village neighborhood full of university students sunbathing in grassy parks and yuppies walking their dogs. It’s a long way from their rural Shandong farmhouse—a virtual prison with blocked-up windows, surveillance cameras, and dozens of guards who threatened and beat would-be visitors ….

A TV-satellite truck has materialized outside Chen’s apartment block, which has also been staked out by reporters and photographers who scrambled when he appeared in the playground. (“It’s exciting. I’ve never heard so many police sirens as I did last night,” said one of Chen’s new neighbors about his arrival in the building.) But Chen didn’t want to grant media interviews on their first day in America. He and his wife are especially concerned about protecting the privacy of their 10-year-old son, Chen Kerui—who’d lived separately from his parents for several years so his father’s imprisonment and harassment wouldn’t disrupt his schooling—and their vivacious 6-year-old daughter, Chen Kesi, who succumbed to her jet lag by early evening. “She was fast asleep on the couch when I first arrived,” said one visitor, “but then she woke up and greeted me full of giggles.”

Speaking to WNYC’s Brian Lehrer, Jerome Cohen explained Chen’s likely course of study at New York University, his long term ambitions, and the negotiation process that brought the family to the US. Cohen also tactfully addressed the risk of Chen becoming a political pinball, and the question of how neatly his work against forced abortion and sterilisation might fit an American pro-life agenda. Chen, he said, “understands China’s need for birth control”, and was concerned primarily with civil liberties. “I don’t think,” he added, “we should associate Mr. Chen with one specific religious organization or with one particular political cause, however important it is.”

Giving his own views on China’s future direction, Cohen said that he is “very optimistic” for the long term and “fairly optimistic” for the medium term, but “quite pessimistic” about the immediate future.

Chen’s studies could begin as soon as next week, according to the South China Morning Post. How long they will continue, however, is unknown.

While in New York, Chen will study Chinese, American and international law. Lectures will be given in Chinese since Chen does not speak English. The programme was scheduled to last a year, but could go longer if necessary, Cohen said. “His study will probably begin next week or the week after,” Cohen said. “We will see when he is ready. There is no rush ….”

Cohen said Chen understood that few activists had had much success trying to influence domestic reform after leaving the country.

Nonetheless, Cohen said he believed Chen had a good chance of returning should he focus on legislation to protect the disabled. He noted that more Chinese activists had been pressing for legal reforms without being jailed, such as civil rights lawyer Pu Zhiqiang .

The Guardian’s Tania Branigan reported that Chen may return to China in as little as a year:

The couple … will not be working towards degrees, [Cohen] added. “Maybe he’ll go back to China quickly at the end of the year, if things look good,” Cohen said. “Initially he’s going to put in a year of serious study and he’ll feel his way.”

Chen has said he wants to return to China at some point, although some activists and dissidents who have left have not been allowed back into the country. “The Chinese government has a long history of preventing the return of critics who have been abroad,” warned Nicholas Bequelin, senior Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch.

“Some parties involved in the negotiations are fairly confident Chen will be able to return … [But] it is not entirely clear what will happen.”

Another article at The Guardian illustrated what may be the worst case scenario, reporting the efforts of several Tiananmen-era dissidents to secure a safe return to China. They include student leader Wang Dan, who recently welcomed Chen to America and assured him that exile, thanks to the Internet, no longer imposed the same limitations as in the past.

It’s been almost 23 years since the optimism that gripped China during the seven-week Tiananmen protests was brutally swept away. Now, five exiled Tiananmen leaders have written an open letter calling on Beijing to allow them to return home in the spirit of human rights at a time when “China is undergoing profound changes”.

“I want to be able to visit my parents,” said Wang Dan in an email. “The Chinese government not allowing us to return is another continuous punishment ….”

While a number of dissidents have returned to China, the permission to do so comes attached with stipulations that most dissidents refuse to accept.

Xiang Xiaoji, now a lawyer in New York, explains: “I will never apologise for anything. What I did was right, and I will never promise to stop pushing for democracy in China. I will not accept their political conditions to return home,” Xiang says. “Besides, I’m not scared of a jail sentence. I’ve been in exile for 23 years, and I’m 55 now. I’ve never regretted what I did in the past, so why would I be scared of what I’ll do in the future?”

At TIME’s Global Spin blog, on the other hand, Austin Ramzy raised the possibility that media coverage of Chen’s saga, regardless of its tone, has sown the seeds of an influence that could weather a wintry exile:

… Chen is still not … widely known in China, but the past month’s coverage in domestic media has raised his profile. While many Chinese readers will agree with criticism of the U.S. role in protecting Chen for six days after he escaped from house arrest, they will also be curious to learn more about who he is. And his story is as compelling as the role of officials in Shandong is troubling. Even before Chen’s escape from house arrest, there was a grassroots effort to support him, and average citizens like former English teacher He Peirong found themselves drawn to his cause.

Earlier this spring I interviewed a migrant worker about a strike at the electronics factory where he was employed in Shenzhen. At the end of our discussion he said he knew that TIME had once interviewed the blind lawyer. “Blind lawyer?” I asked, shocked that a factory worker would know about a man who had been under one form of arrest or another since 2005. “Yes, you know, the blind lawyer Chen,” he replied, adding that he had been inspired by him and closely followed his case …. Chen’s influence may, as State media suggest, diminish during his exile. But not if they keep talking about him.

Also uncertain are the broader implications and lessons of Chen’s case. From the Associated Press:

Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, doubted that Chen’s case would start a trend. She pointed to exceptional factors — Chen is blind and had broken bones when he sought US help, while China was eager to ensure smooth talks with Clinton ….

But Sophie Richardson of Human Rights Watch said that — even if it is unlikely that droves of dissidents will seek shelter at the US embassy — the Chen case showed activists inside China the possibilities of pushing the government.

“I have trouble imagining that people who will have watched this saga unfold won’t in some ways feel empowered by it,” she said ….

Sharon Hom, executive director of Hong Kong- and New York-based group Human Rights in China, said the Chen case did not give simple answers on whether quiet or loud diplomacy works best with China as many factors — from international attention to Chinese netizen activism — had been factors.

At The Atlantic, James Fallows suggested that one lesson was not to rush too quickly to judgement based on incomplete information.

… [L]ooking back on the evolution of the administration’s foreign policy, I contended in my long story about Obama early this year that U.S. positioning toward China was actually one of the more chessmaster-like features of Obama’s overall policy. That is, love the current administration or hate it, you really should consider China-handling one of the more successful parts of its record ….

[The Chen Guangcheng] episode has so far turned out better than it easily might have. And the State Department and White House negotiators on the U.S. side, whatever mistakes or misjudgments they may have made, appear to have been something other than the feckless clowns portrayed in the first wave of press coverage, based on the question of whether they had sold Chen Guangcheng out.

… We naturally crave “what does it all mean?” “who screwed up?” “who won and lost?” certainty, but there are times when the immediately available answers to those questions are likely to be wrong. In our little part of our journo-sphere we will try to do our part by taking this lesson to heart.

© Samuel Wade for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Chen Guangcheng, exiles, forced abortion, forced sterilization, human rights in china, human rights watch, James Fallows, Jerome cohen, new york city, news media, pu zhiqiang, State Department, Tiananmen, wang dan, White House
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