Hu Sheng-Cheng, an economist at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s most renowned research institute, cautioned that although the Chinese State Council announced that there will be a new regulation, it has yet to provide details.

“The actual effect is difficult to assess but likely not big. Although the central government puts in place the law, it will not necessarily make a real difference as the major obstacle taishang face has always been local governments’ many kinds of rules,” he argued.

…

But Hsu Yu-fang, a political commentator and associate professor at National Dong Hwa University’s Department of Sinophone Literatures, believes that Beijing’s move will pay off, nonetheless. He sees the new rule as bound to tie the Taiwanese economy closer to the mainland.

“It’s very clear that the creation of dependence is the purpose. Apart from rolling out the red carpet for petty entrepreneurs, the Chinese government also energetically demands that Taiwan opens more to Chinese investment,” Hsu said.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Cross-Strait relations, Ma Ying-jeou, reunification, taishang
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3. You emphasize that our people are intelligent, hardworking, courageous and good, the most excellent people on earth. How then do you explain that this most excellent population, having passed through 5,000 years of corrupt history and then having subsequently lived through 50 years under the most advanced and ideal system replacing [the old corrupt system], are still of such low character that they aren’t suited to the most basic democratic rights?

14. You have publicized that, “Revolution is guiltless, and revolt is rational.” But now you emphasize that “stability is the overriding priority,” afraid of the wind even stirring the grass. In this era of peace, how is it that you work along contrary lines?

20. You say that the Party was established for the people, that [the Party] is single-minded in serving the people, but the expenses of the Party are from the national treasury and the people don’t have the right to ask questions about them. Why is that?

James McGregor, meanwhile, has re-posted a column he wrote for The Wall Street Journal after the 1989 elections, in which he argued that democracy was Taiwan’s best defence against China:

As is usual in Taiwan, the average citizens are way ahead of their government. Voters interviewed during the campaign and since the voting say they were seeking to establish a two-party system. Their foremost concerns are stability and furthering the island’s economic development while solving the problems of horrible pollution, a soaring crime rate, rampant financial speculation and an antiquated infrastructure that provides a quality of life that is far from commensurate with the citizenry’s $7,200 per-capita income.

Voters here seem to realize something else that has yet to dawn on this island’s politicians: A functioning democracy can provide Taiwan with an effective poison-pill defense against China. If Taiwan can develop full democracy in the next few years, China has good reason to keep the island at arm’s length. The last thing China’s rulers want is to absorb an island where people are accustomed to speaking their minds and electing their government representatives.

© Samuel Wade for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | One comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Chinese democracy, democracy, stability, Taiwan elections
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Politics will be introduced into discussion sooner or later. But when conditions are not mature, consolidating and expanding the middle ground is a good transition to building trust and reducing sensitivity about political topics.

The Chinese mainland and Taiwan should firstly put signing a peace treaty on the agenda. This will have particularly positive significance for Taiwan. The political content of such a treaty can be negotiated. In his second term, Ma Ying-jeou should have the courage and wisdom to take this step. Ma suggested a peace treaty with the Chinese mainland a few months ago, but later moved away from this offer. This sent out a complicated signal. Both the Chinese mainland and Taiwan should create opportunities to promote relations.

The national strength growth of the Chinese mainland has brought changes favorable to itself in the Taiwan Straits. The mainland should keep the momentum rather than seeking to dominate cross-Straits politics.

Across the Taiwan Strait, the press mostly conveyed a sense of optimism as well. The China Post hailed Ma in a Sunday editorial, calling his first four years in office a refreshing escape from the scandal and corruption that defined the term of his predecessor. Separately, a Monday opinion piece called the election a vote of confidence in Ma’s work to build closer ties with mainland China. Yet another Op-Ed, by journalist and former diplomat Joe Hung, echoed the Global Times by urging Ma to conclude a “long overdue” peace accord with the PRC:

In the run-up to the 2008 presidential election, Ma made a campaign promise to sign a peace accord between Taiwan and the People’s Republic, if he were elected. He was elected, but reneged on his promise just as Chen did by making the National Unification Council cease to function. Nonetheless, President Ma renewed his promise in his “Golden Decade Vision” platform for his bid for a second term to conclude a peace pact across the Strait in ten years. Under fire from his challenger Tsai Ing-wen and company, Ma qualified his promise by laying down the three conditions for the accord being “needed by the nation,” “agreed to by the people,” and “supervised by Parliament.” He then followed it up by offering a referendum to decide whether negotiations would be started on that pact. He said the peace agreement would be negotiated if the referendum is passed. If not, there would be no negotiations. Ma won the re-election. All he needs to do now is to satisfy those conditions and conclude peace between Taiwan and China before he steps down in 2016.

One thing has to be made perfectly clear. The conclusion of the peace accord has nothing to do with Chinese unification. The pact is one to end formally the long Chinese civil war, which started or resumed right after World War II.

An editorial from the Taipei Times, on the other hand, cautioned against complacency over relations with the mainland:

The question is if Ma’s re-election will mean that cross-strait relations remain stable and continue to develop. Not necessarily.

Over the past few years, China has continued to nurse and support the Ma administration. Paying no attention to cost, Beijing has offered many policy benefits and advantages, what Ma and his government have called “peace dividends.”

Following Ma’s re-election, we can be quite sure that China will no longer keep a low profile in relations with his government, in particular since Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) is scheduled to step down this year. Before he does, he is almost sure to want to make progress on the Taiwan issue as part of his political legacy. We can therefore expect China to increase its pressure on Taiwan.

The Wall Street Journal wrote today that while Ma’s victory renews his mandate to continue developing relations with China, “significantly lower” support levels than in 2008 also indicate ”deep suspicions” among voters towards the mainland:

Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s former chief representative to the U.S., said there is growing frustration in China from some leaders that China hasn’t received substantive steps from Taiwan to move toward political talks, despite significant concessions in trade deals.

That makes it more likely that Chinese leaders will attempt to extract political concessions, including formal talks with Mr. Ma, according to Mr. Wu.

Wang Yeh-li, chairman of the political-science department at National Taiwan University, disagreed, arguing that Mr. Ma is limited in the steps he can take, as anything that is perceived as moving too close to China would do great damage to the KMT’s support base for future elections.

“Ma’s sliding popularity is a strong message to Beijing that even though Ma still represents the majority sentiment of Taiwan, there are many who are very suspicious of his leadership. This means Ma will likely take a tougher stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty in future talks with Beijing,” he said.

See also CDT coverage of election commentary by netizens on Sina Weibo.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Cross-Strait relations, Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan election, Taiwan independence
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@darkillzhou：Just now,  a Taiwanese friend said to me at the end of our conversation, “I am going to vote tomorrow morning, and we will know who will be the President by the evening.” I suddenly do not know how to respond to him. Although there is no real communication barrier between us, I felt thoroughly ashamed in front of him.  I could only say to him, “You guys are too backward. If we had to vote tomorrow morning, tonight we would already know who would be elected… ”

A couple of typical comments in response to this post: “Actually the whole world knows who our next term president will be.” And “We wouldn’t just know the night before, we would know five years ahead of time.”

CDT has translated additional comments on Sina Weibo about Taiwan’s election. Below are some examples:

@ABEL_OURDEN：转：王木木 : 台湾大选，今晚十点才能知道结果。大陆明年换届，可是我们现在已经知道结果了。 体现了无比的优越性。
@ABEL_OURDEN: RT Wang Mumu: For Taiwan’s election, you will only find out the results this evening at 10 o’clock. But as for next year’s transfer of leadership on the Mainland, you already know the results. Here is an incomparable advantage.

@时报翔哥：对比是全方位的，何止是选票呢……对岸的小马全家齐上阵，忙上忙下拜票出风头；这边小胡家家属情况都是“国家机密”，上张千金照片都被删；对岸是参选的时候，我们知道了老婆是谁，这边是判刑的时候，我们知道了情妇是谁……
@时报翔哥: There are a full range of contractions, not only the ballot itself…… On the other side [of the Taiwan Strait] Mr. Ma had his whole family come out, everyone under the spotlight working their ass off begging for votes. On this side any information about the family members of Mr. Hu is “state secrets”, if one uploads a photo of his daughter it would be immediately deleted. On the other side we know who is the wife when he is running as a candidate; on this side, when they are being sentenced, we find out who his mistresses are……

@落雪是花博报：有选票，台湾官员就得向选民鞠躬；无选票，屁民就得向他们下跪。
@落雪是花博报: With ballots, Taiwan officials have to bow to voters; without ballots, “Fart People” have to kneel to them.

@十年砍柴:若干年我们这边回忆：那一年，我们一起骂的铁道部；我们一起喝的毒牛奶。。。。。。
@十年砍柴: Years later, those of us on this side of the strait will remember: that year, we cursed the Ministry of Railway together, we drank poisoned milk together……

@haitaode ： 据说，大陆提供便利，助台商回台湾投票。真提供便利，不如让台湾三党在大陆设票箱……
@haitaode : It is said that the mainland provides convenience to help Taiwan businessmen to go back to Taiwan to vote. The real convenience we should provide is to let the three Parties in Taiwan to put ballot boxes in the mainland……

@旁观者马勇：不管今晚新闻联播怎么播，我相信中南海和各省委与微薄上的各位一样紧张，一样在思考着台湾这一次没有枪声的选举会给大陆带来怎样的冲击。这个冲击绝对超过什么花，因为那些花还可以说是动荡。这一次台湾人民太伟大了，一举粉碎一百多年对中国人的妖魔化。不管谁赢，都是中国赢。民主选举也可以不打架。
@旁观者马勇： No matter how it CCTV spins tonight’s new program, I believe Zhongnanhai and officials at every provincial level are as tense as everyone else on weibo and are thinking, what kind of impact Taiwan’s election without gunshots will have on the mainland. This impact definitely surpasses those flowers [Jasmine Revolution] because those flowers after all can be called social turmoil. But this time, people in Taiwan are truly great. Once and for all, they have destroyed the hundred year demonization of the Chinese people [that we cannot have democracy]. No matter who wins, it is a win for China. Democratic elections does not have to have violence.

@梁树新：同一个华人春节，台湾同胞在阳光下排队投票，大陆同胞在风雨中排队买票。
@梁树新: Same Chinese Spring Festival, Taiwanese are lining up to vote in the sunshine; mainlanders are lining up to buy (train/airplane) tickets in the rain.

@李不三四：看到海峡对岸热气腾腾的领导人选举，我心中的妒忌羡慕不由得汹涌澎湃，真想大声高喊：大陆也是中国不可分割的一部分啊！
@李不三四: Watching the hot Presidential election on the other side of the strait, my heartfelt jealousy also arises like the ocean waves. I really want to shout loudly: the mainland is an inseparable part of China as well! *

* PRC propaganda slogan: Taiwan is an inseparable part of the China.

@yuen几件小事：茶餐厅有两部电视，左边播着台湾大选，右边播着广东省两会，结果茶餐厅上的人的头清一色偏向左边……

@yuen几件小事: there were two TV sets in the diner. The one on the left showed the Taiwan presidential election, the one on the right showed Two Conferences of Guangdong Province. Everyone in the diner was watching the TV set on the left.

[This post was updated at 9:30 pm PST January 14 to add additional weibo comments and to include election results.]

© Xiao Qiang for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | 2 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: democracy, Taiwan election
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Mr. Ma, of the Kuomintang, is facing a vigorous challenge from Tsai Ing-wen, a low-key academic whose Democratic Progressive Party has long advocated formal independence, a position that in the past inspired Beijing to lob missiles into the Taiwan Strait. Polls suggest that the race is too close to call, with a third candidate expected to draw around 10 percent of the vote, largely from Mr. Ma.

The growing political heft of the Taishang, the name given to the million or so Taiwanese in China who have staked their livelihoods on its expansive economy, has become a point of contention in a race that has raised existential questions about a Taiwan increasingly ensconced in Beijing’s embrace.

Because Taiwan does not allow absentee balloting, Taishang executives have been urging their compatriots to return home to vote, warning that a victory for Ms. Tsai could anger Beijing and prompt it to yank back the welcome mat. But Taishang business leaders have done more than exhort. They have arranged for discounted plane tickets, pressed Chinese airlines and those from Taiwan to add 200 flights and have offered their employees paid holidays that coincide with Election Day, which falls just more than a week before the start of the Chinese New Year.

When seats on regularly scheduled flights to Taiwan sold out, business groups in and around Shanghai and Guangzhou organized charter flights. Terry Gou, the chairman of Foxconn, an electronics manufacturing giant based in Taiwan, is reportedly flying home 5,000 of his employees.

The Voice of America reports that Tsai is catching up to Ma in opinion polls.

See also a report from Al Jazeera:

Meanwhile the Mercury News reports on Taiwanese living in Silicon Valley who are keeping a close eye on the election and also flying home to vote.

© Sophie Beach for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: DPP, Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan election, tsai ing-wen
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Mr. Ma, 61, a Nationalist, has overseen a raft of agreements that have revolutionized the way ordinary Chinese and Taiwanese interact. There are now direct flights, postal services and new shipping routes between Taiwan and the mainland, and a landmark free trade agreement has slashed tariffs on hundreds of goods.

The agreements opened the gates to the deluge of Chinese tourists — 213,000 arrived in November, 30 percent more than in November 2010 — who buoyed the local economy with more than $3 billion in spending last year. Other firsts include a pair of giant pandas from China, an early reward for Mr. Ma’s Beijing-friendly gestures, and nearly 1,000 mainland students who now study at Taiwan universities.

The burst of contact has reawakened old sensitivities and raised new ones.

Ma and chief rival Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has historically supported Taiwanese independence and more recently sought a more democratic “Taiwan Consensus” to challenge Ma’s desire to maintain the status quo, largely sidestepped the issue of cross-Strait relations to focus on the economy during debates in December. Bloomberg reported that opinion polls released on Tuesday, the last surveys permitted to be published before the January 14 vote, showed Ma maintaining a lead over Tsai. Ma’s policies have defused tensions with China, according to Reuters, but opponents have argued that by doing so he has propped up Taiwan’s business elite while ignoring the needs of ordinary citizens:

Most polls show Ma with a slender lead over Tsai, who has focused her campaign on Ma’s economic record, leveling attacks that have struck a chord with ordinary Taiwanese wrestling with rising living costs, stagnant wages and unaffordable housing.

Ma’s response has been to showcase a coming “10 golden years” of peace and prosperity for all in Taiwan, a goal he says only he can achieve because of his policy of stable relations with China.

“In political terms, maybe people do not agree with us, but you can’t deny that the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement benefits both our farmers and fishermen,” Ma said in his last televised campaign platform presentation on December 24.

Ma has repeatedly rejected accusations that his policy is handing Beijing a chance to achieve its long-stated goal of recovering Taiwan, which has been self-governing since the Nationalists retreated there after losing control of the mainland to Mao Zedong’s communists in 1949.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Cross-Strait relations, Ma Ying-jeou, public opinion, Taiwan election, Taiwan independence, tsai ing-wen
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“We will continue to manage well the relationship between stable and relatively quick economic growth, structural adjustment and inflation,” Hu said. “Global interdependence is deepening while instability and uncertainty in the world economy’s revival is increasing.”

The government is wrestling with the aftermath of past stimulus, including the debt burdens of local-government investment vehicles. Companies also face rising labor costs, and Communist Party leaders have recently sought to defuse protests over illegal land use and environmental pollution.

While the 25-member Politburo affirmed an unchanged “proactive” fiscal stance for 2012 in December, a Nov. 30 cut in banks’ reserve requirements indicated a shift toward a bigger emphasis on supporting growth.

Earlier today, the head of China’s central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, said the country would maintain a “prudent” monetary stance and ensure that policy remains stable in 2012.

While Hu addressed the economy, he also addressed the status of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. China Daily translates Hu’s speech:

In the new year, we will unswervingly adhere to the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, follow the guidelines of Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents, and further carry out the Scientific Outlook on Development. We will continue to properly deal with the relationship among maintaining a stable and relatively fast economic growth, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations. We will accelerate the change of economic development mode and structural adjustment, focus on ensuring and improving people’s livelihood and work hard to consolidate the healthy momentum of economic and social development.

We will uphold the principles of “one country, two systems”, “Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong” and “Macao people governing Macao” with a high degree of autonomy. We will work together with our compatriots in Hong Kong and Macao to maintain long-term prosperity and stability in the two Special Administrative Regions. We will adhere to the principles of “peaceful reunification and one country, two systems,” continue to promote the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations, maintain the essential interests of the Chinese nation and enhance the common interests of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits.

© melissa chan for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: economic recovery, economic slowdown, Hong Kong status, Hu Jintao, inflation, macau, Taiwan relations
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Under the agreement, which could receive final approval next year, Knauf Plasterboard Tianjin, a Chinese affiliate of Germany’s Knauf Gips KG, would provide cash settlements or pay to replace the drywall in affected homes. Thousands of lawsuits have been filed against KPT and other Chinese makers of the affected drywall, which was installed in homes during the housing boom of the mid-2000s, when domestic drywall was in short supply.

Homeowners, many in Southern states, have complained of a rotten-egg odor and sulfur fumes that corrode wiring and metal pipes. About 5,200 plaintiffs allege that their homes contain the problematic KPT drywall, and roughly half of those have submitted evidence.

Steven Glickstein, an attorney representing KPT, said the company was “pleased to have the problem behind them, or at least start the process now in a very definitive way.” Some plaintiffs’ lawyers said the cost of the settlement could reach $1 billion. KPT said it is too early to provide an estimate.

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Post tags: drywall, exports, product safety
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Mr. Guo, who told the authorities he comes from the far west region of Xinjiang, set off from coastal Fujian Province on a flotation device made from bamboo and Styrofoam. Mr. Pu said officials had been tracking his progress by radar.

After his arrest, he told Taiwanese reporters that he was inspired to make the perilous journey by Taiwan’s presidential race, which pits the incumbent Ma Ying-jeou against two opponents. “I want to see your elections, with campaign flags flying all over the place,” he said.

The elections, which take place Jan. 14, have piqued considerable interest in China, which is led by a Communist government keen to dampen the democratic yearnings of its people. After decades of authoritarian rule, Taiwan — considered by Beijing to be a breakaway province — held its first direct presidential elections in 1996.

Taiwan held its first of three presidential debates last week as it prepares to go to the polls in January 2012, with candidates playing it safe with regards to the question of reunification or independence and focusing mostly on economic issues instead. See also additional CDT coverage of cross-Strait relations.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2011. | Permalink | One comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Cross-Strait relations, democracy, elections, Fujian, Taiwan independence, unification, Xinjiang
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The three candidates — incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (or Nationalist) Party, Democratic Progressive Party chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen and People First Party founder James Soong — tread very carefully over the two-and-a-half-hour debate. It was a sign, commentators said, of how tight race the race has become, with the candidates preferring to play it safe and avoid losing votes – or inviting attacks.

…

Unlike the televised debates ahead of the previous presidential election, which had been dominated by Taiwan’s relations with China, the three presidential hopefuls this time spent almost half of the time addressing economic concerns — joblessness, stagnant wages and a wide wealth gap — although none of them managed to offer much in the way of specific remedies.

“The debate was quite empty,” said Yu Tzu-hsiang, chairman of department of speech communication at Shih Hsin University. “There were moments when I expected some follow-up questions or attacks, but there weren’t.”

The Taipei Times published a transcript of the debate, which comes as conflicting polls show Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ying-wen in a virtual dead heat. Tsai questioned Ma’s efforts to bring Taiwan and mainland China closer together and adhere to the so-called “1992 Consensus” – bilateral recognition of the “One China Principle” with differing opinions of what “One China” really means – claiming that such a policy has left the KMT and DPP farther apart than Taipei and Beijing. She proposed a democratic ”Taiwan Consensus” to challenge Ma’s so-called “Three Noes,” a policy which seeks “no unification, no independence, no use of force” (and a revision of the more extreme 1980s policy of former president Chiang Ching-kuo which pledged ”no contact, no compromise, no negotiation” with China). Ma believes that a majority of Taiwanese support his policy, but Taiwanese think tank consultant Tung Li-wen said that such a stance only divides Taiwan and ignores the need for the people to decide for themselves. From The Taipei Times:

Saying that the pro-unification and pro-Taiwan independence positions both enjoy support, Tung added that it is crucial to Taiwan’s democracy that every person can proclaim his or her own opinion and that Taiwan’s future is decided via a democratic mechanism.

“That President Ma Ying-jeou dared others to support [his] idea of ‘no unification, no independence,’ is an act tantamount to killing the ability of Taiwanese to choose their future. It not only harms Taiwan’s democracy, it also deepens the blue-green division and becomes a tool that Ma can use to tear Taiwan apart,” Tung said.

See also dueling YouTube videos posted by the Kuomintang and by Tsai Ing-wen, which The Wall Street Journal says marks the beginning of a media blitz that will soon ramp up, as well as additional CDT coverage of cross-Strait relations.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2011. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: 1992 Consensus, Cross-Strait relations, democracy, Democratic Progressive Party, Kuomintang, Ma Ying-jeou, One China Principle, Taiwan independence, unification
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