China appears on track to forge a modern military by 2020, a rapid buildup that could be potentially destabilising to the Asia-Pacific region, the Pentagon has said.

Fuelled by its booming economy, China’s military growth in the past decade has exceeded most US forecasts. Its aircraft carrier programme, cyberwarfare capabilities and anti-satellite missiles have alarmed neighbours and Washington.

The US defence department’s annual assessment to Congress on the Chinese military flagged all the major concerns about China’s growing military might, including Beijing’s widening edge over Taiwan. It also noted cyber-attacks in 2010 – including those on US government computers – that appeared to have originated in China.

“We have some concerns [on cyber] about some of the things that we’ve seen. And we want to be able to work through that with China,” said Michael Schiffer, a deputy assistant secretary of defence.

The report focused on 2010, a year when the Pentagon said China’s military modernisation programme paid “visible dividends”. It cited China’s fielding of an operational anti-ship ballistic missile, continued work on its aircraft carrier programme and the completion of a prototype of China’s first stealth fighter jet, the J-20.

The J-20 programme, the Pentagon report said, would not achieve “effective operational capability” before 2018.

“Despite continued gaps in some key areas, large quantities of antiquated hardware and a lack of operational experience, the PLA [China's People's Liberation Army] is steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed forces,” the report said.

However, Chinese government officials have come forward to rebuff the Pentagon’s report. From Xinhua:

The Chinese government reacted strongly on Friday to a Pentagon report that warned China’s military modernization could destabilize the Asia-pacific region.

The Chinese Defense Ministry says, the US military’s annual assessment of China’s armed forces , indulged in exaggeration and groundless suspicion.

According to Yang Yujun, China’s Defense Ministry spokesman, China’s military is only to protect the national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It’s not aimed at any particular country or region.

The Pentagon report predicts that by 2020, the PLA will become a “modern, regional-focused military”, and claims that the Chinese mainland is focusing its military buildup on Taiwan.

But Yang Yujun replied saying that as technology advances, it’s very normal for the Chinese military to develop and upgrade its weaponry. The Pentagon report merely “exaggerated the so-called mainland military threat to Taiwan.”

Sources:

China Could Build a Modern Military by 2020 – the Guardian

Chinese Gov’t Strongly Rebuffs US Military Report - Xinhua

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Beijing is interested in more than just energy and fishery resources. The area is also integral to its nuclear submarine strategy.

In an effort to underscore its importance to Asia, geostrategist Nicholas Spykman once described it as the ‘Asiatic Mediterranean.’ More recently, it has been dubbed the ‘Chinese Caribbean.’ And, just as Rome and the United States have sought control over the Mediterranean and Caribbean, China now seeks dominance over the South China Sea.

It’s clear that China’s claims and recent assertiveness have increased tensions in this key body of water. Yet while most attention has focused on Beijing’s appetite for fishery and energy resources, from a submariner’s perspective, the semi-closed sea is integral to China’s nuclear strategy. And without understanding the nuclear dimension of the South China Sea disputes, China’s maritime expansion makes little sense.

Possessing a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent is a priority for China’s military strategy. China’s single Type 092, or Xia-class, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, equipped with short-range JL-1 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), has never conducted a deterrent patrol from the Bohai Sea since its introduction in the 1980s. However, China is on the verge of acquiring credible second-strike capabilities with the anticipated introduction of JL-2 SLBMs (with an estimated range of 8,000 kilometres) coupled with DF-31 and DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In addition, China plans to introduce up to five Type 094, or Jin-class, SSBNs outfitted with the JL-2 missiles, while constructing an underwater submarine base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.

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Why has China’s foreign policy been more aggressive over the past three years? Why have the Chinese undone a decade’s worth of good neighborly diplomacy in Asia? The facts of the case are now well known. In Southeast Asia, China declared the South China Sea a “core interest” (a term previously reserved for Taiwan and Tibet), in essence defining the sea as Chinese territory. To punctuate the point, China harassed Vietnamese fisherman near disputed islands in the sea.

In Northeast Asia, China could not bring itself to condemn its North Korean ally for Pyongyang’s wanton murder of South Korean soldiers and civilians on two separate occasions last year. China also picked a fight with Japan. After Tokyo acquiesced in Beijing’s demand to release a Chinese fishing captain that had been arrested for ramming Japanese vessels in disputed waters, China suspended diplomatic relations, demanded an apology, and halted the sale of rare earth minerals to Tokyo. And finally there was China’s shabby treatment of U.S. President Obama during his November 2009 visit to China. If ever there was a president entering office with an outstretched hand to Beijing, it was Obama. His secretary of state went out of her way to downplay China’s human rights abuses. Obama delayed both a meeting with the Dalai Lama–a standard affair in U.S diplomacy–and the sale of the second half of a package of badly needed arms that President Bush had promised to Taiwan. During Obama’s maiden voyage to China, Beijing reneged on agreements to allow the president’s speeches to air on television without censorship, and left the new president to return to Washington without accomplishing anything on his agenda, from climate change talks to Beijing’s currency manipulation.

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The Japanese F-15 fighters are engaged in an increasingly busy, and at times tense, game of cat-and-mouse with rapidly modernizing China, just across the East China Sea. The pilots say they face intrusions into Japanese-controlled airspace by an array of increasingly sophisticated Chinese aircraft, including advanced fighters like the Russian-made Su-27.

“You cannot let down your guard when you fly up against an Su-27,” said Maj. Gen. Masashi Yamada, commander of Naha’s squadron of 24 fighters.

General Yamada will soon get additional help. In December, Tokyo announced plans to strengthen its forces in the southwestern Okinawan islands, including adding a dozen F-15s in Naha. The increase is part of a broader shift in Japanese defensive stance southward, toward China, that some analysts are calling one of Japan’s biggest changes in postwar military strategy.

This strategic shift is another step in a gradual and limited buildup of Japan’s forces, aimed at keeping up with the changing power balance in Asia while remaining within the bounds of Japan’s antiwar Constitution and the constraints of its declining economic power. Political analysts say Japan is slowly raising the capabilities of its forces to respond to a more assertive China and a nuclear-armed North Korea — and to take a first, halting step out of the shadow of the United States, its postwar protector, which many Japanese fear may one day no longer have the will or ability to defend Japan.

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Saying publicly for the first time what they’ve thought privately for years, Japanese defence planners in December announced a new defence posture that fingered China’s military rise as justification for a new, more proactive approach, including a refocusing of forces from Japan’s north to its southernmost islands.

Unfortunately, China’s response was as predictable as it was unhelpful: it issued a blunt statement saying that no country had the right to make irresponsible comments about its development.

From a distance, it’s hard not to be alarmed at the three trends that have dominated the region over the last decade: the growth of Chinese power, the relative decline of US power and the resulting remilitarisation of Japanese power. Indeed, given the growth in importance of the region to the global economy, these trends are as alarming as they are dangerous since they have the capacity to be self-fulfilling, driving a cycle of mistrust and spiralling arms spending. And, since Japan’s defence posture automatically includes the United States (which is obliged by treaty to come to Japan’s defence) any potential conflict has all the ingredients for a ‘great power war.’

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China‘s biggest military parade in a decade will show off an army bristling with formidable new capabilities and deliver a potent message to the U.S. and others not to underestimate Beijing’s determination to defend its interests at home and abroad.

The military display is expected to be the centerpiece of a grandiose parade through Beijing on Oct. 1 to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. A preview rumbled through the Chinese capital a week ago, giving an excited citizenry and foreign military analysts a first-time glimpse at some cutting-edge weaponry…

“The exercise is aimed at not only showing the Chinese people some of the symbols of China’s new great power status, but also showing foreigners that policies based on the presumption of Chinese weakness must be changed,” said Denny Roy, an expert on the Chinese military at Hawaii‘s East-West Center… Officially, Beijing says the parade is nothing more than a move to boost patriotism and showcase the PLA’s modernization drive — an explanation that fits with the oft-repeated government line that the Chinese military buildup poses no threat to others. Chinese defense spending officially reached $71 billion this year, though analysts believe the actual figure is much higher. The spending is second to the U.S. but a fraction of American defense spending.

See also past CDT posts on National Day.

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With few exceptions, Beijing rarely says much of substance about its ongoing military build-up or its strategic thinking. But the overriding message from the recent Moscow Airshow and other airshows, plus occasional interviews with Chinese and Russian engineers, is that Beijing is not conceding next-generation air superiority to anyone, least of all the United States.

Exhibit A is Beijing’s long-running effort to build a fifth-generation fighter plane equivalent to the U.S. F-22 and F-35. Such planes use extensive stealth and advanced radar and can usually “supercruise,” or fly supersonically for extended periods without using fuel-guzzling afterburners. In what may be the only public reference to the program by a Chinese official, the Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy mentioned their requirement for a fighter capable of “supersonic cruise” during 60th anniversary celebrations in April. Today this can only be achieved by the U.S. F-22A Raptor, the world’s only operational fifth-generation fighter.

To be sure, China faces many technical obstacles. Development of advanced engines capable of 15-ton thrust levels is a particularly serious bottleneck. But China’s fifth-generation efforts date back to the early 1990s and will start with two heavy fighters from China’s two main fighter companies.

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A military analyst, Song Xiaojun, says the site will offer more detail on that spending and on general defence policy.

“The Defence Ministry is a special organisation. In principle it should be in the system of the State Council,” said Song, referring to China’s cabinet. “In fact, it is more like a window of the army toward the outside world. The current chinamil site is mainly about life in the army. It doesn’t have much on the policy level.”… In keeping with Beijing’s desire to control all information–both internal and international–about the image of the Communist Party, the new military web site already presents one face in Chinese and another one in English.

Chinese site headlines are uniformly mundane, such as “Jiaoliu Train Line Derailed, Soldiers Perform Urgent Rescue,” whereas the site’s English avatar features items such as “U.S. May OK High-tech Exports to China.”

A military analyst, Song Xiaojun, says the site will offer more detail on that spending and on general defence policy.

“The Defence Ministry is a special organisation. In principle it should be in the system of the State Council,” said Song, referring to China’s cabinet. “In fact, it is more like a window of the army toward the outside world. The current chinamil site is mainly about life in the army. It doesn’t have much on the policy level.”… In keeping with Beijing’s desire to control all information–both internal and international–about the image of the Communist Party, the new military web site already presents one face in Chinese and another one in English.

Chinese site headlines are uniformly mundane, such as “Jiaoliu Train Line Derailed, Soldiers Perform Urgent Rescue,” whereas the site’s English avatar features items such as “U.S. May OK High-tech Exports to China

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China has become the world’s second biggest military spender behind the United States, a Swedish peace research group said Monday.

Global arms spending rose 4 percent last year, but China increased its spending by 10 percent to an estimated $84.9 billion last year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in its annual report on world arms transfers.

“China is continuing to acquire both domestic and foreign arms as it seeks to equip its armed forces for conditions of modern ‘informationalized’ warfare,” it said. Such warfare involves the use of precision weapons and high-tech information and communications technology.

“They are the second biggest military spender now, that does not mean they are the second strongest military power, because a lot of other countries have been at this game for a lot longer than China,” Perlo-Freeman said.

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The Pentagon views China as the country most likely, at some point down the road, to acquire the capacity to challenge the U.S. military on a global scale. The U.S. in recent years has moved to strengthen its forces in the Pacific and urged its ally Japan to do the same. Washington and Tokyo are working together to boost anti-missile defenses, to defend against threats from both North Korea and China. And some in the Defense Department talk up the “China threat” to justify greater spending on new weapons systems.

[...] However, many observers, both in China and the U.S., say that fear of China is exaggerated. China’s armed forces are still no match for U.S. firepower at sea, on land or in space. Many American security analysts — including former senior military officers — do not believe that China intends to take on the U.S., as the former Soviet Union once did. For now, China’s military falls back on a mix of high-tech weaponry, such as its new Jin-class nuclear-missile submarines, and low-tech stealth and cunning.

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