Stephen Roach: The Echoes of Beijing

From Morgan Stanley:

Beneath the surface, however, there is a growing sense of unease in China. Don’t get me wrong ” the backward looking data flow still looks terrific. GDP growth continues to soar ” gains in 2003 were just revised upward to 9.5% (from 9.3%) and the Chinese economy was estimated to be holding at that pace in the first period of 2005. The latest update of the more reliable industrial output figures paints an equally impressive figure ” a reacceleration to 16% y-o-y growth in April versus somewhat more subdued year-end 2004 comparisons of 14.4%. Growth is not the issue in China. There has been plenty of it in recent years and there is an ample reservoir of considerably more growth to come in the pipeline. The issue is the consequences of that growth.

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