Nearly 10 years have passed since the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. When China had to give up pressuring Taiwan–all but helpless against two aircraft carrier battle groups deployed by the United States–I was visiting the Foreign Ministry to see Hiroshi Shigeta, then chief of the ministry’s Intelligence and Analysis Bureau and a seasoned Soviet watcher.
I remember Shigeta saying, “It’s just like the Cuban missile crisis, isn’t it?”