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来源【每日电讯报】China has no choice but to look inside itself for growth
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China has no choice but to look inside itself for growth

中国除了从内部寻求增长之外别无选择

Self-sustaining domestic growth in China is a necessity, not a chioce, writes Jeremy Warner.

独立的国内增长对中国来说是必须的,别无选择,Jeremy Warner写道。

By Jeremy Warner, Tianjin

Jeremy Warner于天津

Published: 10:16PM BST 15 Sep 2010

发布时间:2010年9月15日

At the World Economic Forum’s “summer Davos” in Tianjin this week, Wen Jaibao, the Chinese premier, held out the promise of bold reform that would restructure the Chinese economy away from the old export-led model of development to a more balanced and healthier form of growth based on domestic demand, and particularly consumption.

在本周举行的世界经济论坛“夏季达沃斯”天津年会上,中国总理温家宝承诺将采取大胆的改革重塑中国经济,使中国经济的从旧的以出口为导向的发展模式转向更为均衡和健康的基于国内需求尤其是消费的增长方式。

We’ve heard this before from China’s leaders. They’ve been promising it for years, but little seems to change. China’s essentially mercantilist approach to growth persists regardless of the rhetoric.

我们已经多次听过中国领导人类似的说法。他们承诺了很多年,但是变化看上去并不大。中国根本上的通过出口带动增长的方式基本上不理会这样的说法。

Is China set to disappoint again? The financial crisis gave reason to believe that this time, the Chinese leadership might be serious and perhaps as much out of necessity as design move to address this long-standing sore at the heart of the world economy.

中国又一次让人失望了吗?这一次金融危机给出了相信这种说法的理由,中国领导人可能是认真的,从世界经济的中心表明出这种长期的隐痛,出于形势的需要和出于作秀需要的成分同样的多。

Yet after a brief interlude in which exports plunged and imports surged thanks to economic collapse in the West and China’s fiscal response to it, the old order seems to be reasserting itself.

但是,受惠于西方经济衰退以及中国方面的应对,在短暂的出口骤降进口激增之后,旧的秩序似乎又获得了重生。

The IMF has predicted that China’s monstrous current account surplus would soon reincarnate itself in an expanded form. Such an outcome would be unacceptable to the US, and in any case the debt constrained state of demand in advanced economies would seem to make it a logical impossibility.

IMF警告说,中国庞大的经常账户盈余会使中国迅速膨胀。这样的结果是美国不能接受的,无论如何,受债务困扰的美国似乎要让它从逻辑上成为不可能。

China cannot hope to rely for much longer on export expansion to sustain present breakneck growth. That phase of the development process is already close to exhaustion. Something has got to change. China’s vast internal market of 1.3bn souls has to be persuaded to become the main driver of growth instead.

中国不能再指望依靠出口膨胀来维持目前这种恐怖的增长。这种发展方式已经逼近衰竭。是到了做出改变的时候了。中国13亿人口的巨大国内市场将成为增长的主要推动力。

I’m in China trying to understand how this transformation might occur, and though past experience gives few reasons for hope – Chinese consumption as a share of GDP has actually been falling during the past decade – I’m more optimistic than I was.

我曾经试图搞清楚这种转变怎样才能出现,但是从过去的经验看不出丝毫的希望——做为GDP的一部分中国的消费在过去的十多年中是下降的——现在我比过去更乐观了。

That’s not to say there won’t be setbacks. The past two years of accelerated modernisation and speculative development, has made some kind of a bust, or at least pause in the growth story, much more likely.

这并不表明一切都会一同帆风顺。过去两年加速的现代化和冒进的发展已经造成了一些破坏,或者至少中断了增长的传奇。

You cannot have development on such a scale and at such a speed without misallocation of capital, even in a planned economy. When it happens, it will be a rude awakening for a country which is overarching self-confident believes it can do no wrong.

你不可能以如此的规模和速度进行发展而不产生资本的不合理配置,即使是在计划经济情况下也不行。而这些一旦发生,对于一个自信并且相信不会出错的国家而言,那会追悔莫及。

The country’s authorities may have left it too late to rein in bank lending. But if the pace of development does stall, they will do their utmost to fight it – or cover it up. The Chinese economy remains largely opaque; unreliable statistics combined with inscrutable public policy and impenetrable transmission mechanisms mean it’s never entirely clear what’s going on.

中国政府在控制信贷方面也许动手太晚了。但是,如果发展的步伐停止下来,他们就会尽最大的努力去扭转——或者掩盖它。中国经济很大程度上保持着不透明;不可靠的统计数据以及谜一样的公共政策,再加上千回百转的沟通机制意味着它从来没有完全清楚正在发生的事。

Nevertheless, it is clear that this vast land mass and population is undergoing a profound industrial revolution. There is a momentum which looks pretty much unstoppable on any kind of long-term view.

尽管如此,有一点是清楚的,这个拥有广阔土地和大量人口的国家正在进行一场深刻的工业革命。从任何一个长远的考量出发,都会存在一种永不信息的推动力。

Over the next several years, China must move to what might be called the Henry Ford phase of development, or the recognition that to command a mass market for its goods, China must pay or subsidise its workers well enough to actually buy them.

在以后的几年中,中国必将转向一种被称做Henry Ford的发展阶段,或者说要认识到,要为他的产品找到巨大的市场,中国必须为工人们提供更高的薪酬或者补贴以使他们能够买得起这些产品。

Environmental considerations, including the widening use of solar power, may be a key driver of this change.

环境因素的影响,包括太阳能的广泛应用,可能成为这种变化的关键推动力。

Already that process has begun. Labour rates are rising strongly, and in his speech this week, Wen Jabaio hinted at further policy action to improve disposable incomes, social security and the availability of affordable housing. What China loses in export competitiveness by adopting such policies it will gain in domestic purchasing power.

这个进程已经开始。劳动力价格在强劲上涨,在本周的讲话中,温家宝暗示将进一步采取措施提高可支配收入,增加社会保障以及经济适用房的供给。采取这些政策导致的出口竞争力的损失会从国内购买力中得到补偿。

Any analysis of this transition must include an examination of the constraints on private demand growth in China, which thanks to the legacy of 30 years of Maoist rule are legion.

任何关于这种转变的分析都应考虑到中国被压抑的个人需求的增长,这种增长要感谢30多年毛主义治理的积累。

According to the Chinese saying, you should plant trees in your youth so that you can sit in the shade in your old age. This way of thinking has long instructed the Chinese approach to development and helps explain why China has invested so heavily in infrastructure.

中国有句谚语叫“前人栽树,后人乘凉”。这种思维长期以来指导了中国的发展并且解释了为什么中国在基础设施建设上投以重资。

Unfortunately, there’s not much point in having pleasant tree lined avenues if there’s insufficient enterprise to take advantage of them. A spanking new, first world infrastructure is no guarantee of future prosperity.

不幸的是,如果没有足够的企业利用的话,再多的林荫大道也没什么意义。说句泄气的话,世界一流的基础设施并不是未来繁荣的保证。

The Great Wall of China was by the standards of its time a structural achievement of even greater ambition and apparent utility than today’s gleaming sky-scrapers, super highways and high speed bullet trains, yet it was followed by centuries of stagnation and relative decline. Structurally and culturally, Chinese society was incapable of matching the innovations that were transforming Europe.

按照当时的标准,中国的长城是比如今的摩天大楼、高速公路以及子弹头高速列车更为野心勃勃和实用的建设成就,但是随之而来的却是几个世纪的停滞和相对的衰退。从建设和文化上讲,中国社会未能跟上改变欧洲的大变革。

Some of these weaknesses in Chinese society persist and have even been enhanced by communist rule. The state owned or sponsored enterprises (SOEs) that dominate the Chinese economy are still rigidly hierarchical organisations typified by imperious chief executives, poor promotional prospects, shockingly deficient R and D, and low rates of innovation. Many of them are monopolies.

这些中国社会的的弱点被共产党的统治延续甚至增强了。占有中国经济主导地位的国有企业依旧是等级森严、由专横的管理层掌控的组织,黯淡的前景,令人震惊的低效率的研发,低效率的变革。多数的国企都是垄断的。

There is a fear of failure, or loss of face, which permeates the educational system and acts as a significant barrier to entrepreneurialism and innovation. The Chinese are taught to work for others rather than themselves.

他们有一种对失败、丢面子的恐惧,这些都渗入到了教育体系并且成为企业创新精神和变革的障碍。中国人认为他们是在为他人工作而不是为自己工作。

The “can do” attributes of China’s unique brand of authoritarian capitalism have self evidently served the country well during the past three years of crisis in the advanced economies. Set against the paralysis that afflicts the US, it might even be said to have eclipsed the West’s laissez faire, democratically driven approach to economic management, and provide a model for us all.

“能干”这个属于中国的权力资本的独一无二商标在过去三年发达经济区处于危机时显然给这个国家带来了好处。抛开饱受停滞折磨的美国,它甚至使西方的自由主义以及民主地推进经济管理都显得暗淡无光,为我们提供了一个典范。

On this I remain unashamedly sceptical, for with the exception of present traumas, most modern history would not incline you to the view that politically directed development is more successful in generating wealth than market driven growth.

对此我保持着不知羞愧地怀疑,因为除了目前的混乱状态,多数的现代史实不会告诉你,政治引导的发展会在创造财富上比市场推动的增长更为成功。

Creativity, ideas and innovation, the great enablers of economic progress, require free societies.

创造性、创意与革新、经济进步的伟大推手都需要自由的社会。

Yet for now, absence of the West’s crippling legacy costs, both from the crisis and social entitlements, will in itself continue to drive strong relative improvement.

但是现在呢,没有付出象西方因遭受危机和社会认可而严重受损那样的代价,它们将继续推动相对强劲的改进。

The reason self-sustaining domestic growth will soon be taking up the baton of Chinese development is simple; it’s not a matter of choice, but of necessity and economic evolution.

独立于世的国内增长很快会接过中国发展接力棒的原因是简单的,它无关选择,而是一种必然和经济规律。

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