原作者:
来源Double Dip: Would China Bail Out the Global Economy Again?
译者echo9316

For a global economy already jittery over sovereign debt risk in the U.S. and Europe, last week’s 500-point freefall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average helped resurrect fears of a dreaded double-dip recession. The downgrade of U.S. debt by Standard & Poor’s on Friday has only fueled those fears further.

如今的全球经济形势已经使得债券危机在美国和欧洲犹如头上悬刀,战战兢兢。上周道琼斯指数下跌的500点成功唤醒了人们对于可怕双重经济大萧条的回忆。周五急剧下跌的美国信用评估等级进一步扩大了这份恐惧。

The first dip would have been far more frightening had it not been for China, whose $586 billion stimulus plan in 2008 kept the country’s economy growing briskly and helped ensure the rest of the world didn’t grind to a halt. Can China be counted on to do the same in the event of a second slide?

第一波的经济衰退对于中国来说已经是很为可怕的了,中国在2008年斥资5860亿的刺激经济计划使得国家的经济良性增长并且确保了世界其余国家的经济没有缓慢停滞。中国能在这第二波的危急中做出同样的抉择和应对办法吗?

According to University of California, Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen, the answer is no. Asia should be “very” afraid of a double-dip recession, Mr. Eichengreen writes at East Asia Forum, adding that the world’s second-largest economy isn’t where it was in 2008:

Barry Eichengreen—加州伯克利分校的经济学家给出了否定的答案。亚洲应该“万分”害怕这次的二波衰退,Eichengreen先生在东亚论坛如此写道,并说如今世界的第二大经济体系已与2008年的不同了。

Then it was possible for China to pull out all the stops and unleash a massive fiscal stimulus. To support investment spending, it could instruct the banks to lend like there was no tomorrow. Today Chinese policy makers have less room for maneuver. With inflation already running at 5 per cent, they are anxious to rein in bank lending. Credit policies that inflated further an already expanding property bubble would not be helpful. Then there are worries about the balance sheets of financial institutions, like the credit cooperatives that financed local government’s infrastructure projects. Standard & Poor’s has already warned that a third of their loans may have to be written off. More generally, analysts are concerned that the public-sector debt burden, considering all levels of government, is higher than suggested by the headline figures and higher than is healthy for an emerging economy.

那么对于中国来说,尽量减少发展停滞以及提供巨大的财政刺激还是有可能的。为了鼓励投资,中国可以指示银行像今天便是世界末日一般放出贷款。如今中国政策制定者已经没有多余时间去试行了这一系列政策了。信用政策对一个已经膨胀的房地产泡沫已经无多大帮助。然而又有担忧在金融机构的资产负债表中滋生,像是那些资助当地政府建设基础项目的信用合作社。普尔指数已经表明了对第三次贷款也许会被报废的警告了。进一步说,考虑到政府的各个层级,分析师们更加担心公共部门的欠债负担会高于被提出的公认数字,以及高于一个新兴经济所能承受的范围。

Mr. Eichengreen would appear to agree with Heard on the Street’s Tom Orlik, who wrote in a column last week that not only had China’s banking debt ballooned to nearly 180% of GDP in 2010, but that the country has recently appeared to be getting less for what it spends.

Eichengreen先生会同意Tom Orlik 在上周一个栏目里说的不仅中国银行的债务猛增到到2010年GDP的180%,并且这个国家最近呈现出消费越来越少的趋势。

If China sees exports plummet again, Mr. Eichengreen writes, the government would be in no position to compensate for the loss with domestic spending: “The implications for other economies that sell parts, components and, above all, raw materials to China would not be pretty.”

如果中国再次遭遇了出口量暴跌的情况,Eichengreen先生写道,政府将无力承担国内消费的损失:“其他经济体销售零件,组件材料等经济体的卷入,会使中国的情形更不容乐观。”

A reason, perhaps, to take Beijing’s recent lashing out at Washington over the handling of the U.S. debt problem as more than just the grumblings of an unhappy creditor.

也许北京最近对华盛顿关于美国债券偿还能力的抨击不仅仅是作为一个不开心的贷款人而发出的抱怨吧。

添加新评论

相关文章:

  性爱经济学基础课

  BBC的调查问卷发现,中国的崛起让大家产生了恐惧

  美国债务评级下调,中国外汇储备带灾

  英国的比尔·盖茨在哪儿?

  再看韩国:游戏结束了

本文由自动聚合程序取自网络,内容和观点不代表数字时代立场

定期获得翻墙信息?请电邮订阅数字时代