译者 天空碎片
Capitalism and its critics
资本主义和对他的批评
Rage against the machine
向体制的怒吼
People are right to be angry. But it is also right to be worried about where populism could take politics
人们感到一腔怒气是理所担任的，但是我们也应当顾虑民粹主义从哪里获取他们的主张。
FROM Seattle to Sydney, protesters have taken to the streets. Whether they are inspired by the Occupy Wall Street movement in New York or by the indignados in Madrid, they burn with dissatisfaction about the state of the economy, about the unfair way that the poor are paying for the sins of rich bankers, and in some cases about capitalism itself.
从西雅图到悉尼，抗议者们挤满了街头。无论他们受到了纽约的“占领华尔街”运动还是马德里的“愤青”运动的号召，他们对自己国家的经济，对穷人要为富有的银行家的罪行进行偿付的不公以及在一定程度上对资本主义本身都充满了不满之情。
In the past it was easy for Western politicians and economic liberals to dismiss such outpourings of fury as a misguided fringe. In Seattle, for instance, the last big protests (against the World Trade Organisation, in 1999) looked mindless. If they had a goal, it was selfish—an attempt to impoverish the emerging world through protectionism. This time too, some things are familiar: the odd bit of violence, a lot of incoherent ranting and plenty of inconsistency. The protesters have different aims in different countries. Higher taxes for the rich and a loathing of financiers is the closest thing to a common denominator, though in America polls show that popular rage against government eclipses that against Wall Street.
在过去，对于西方政客和经济自由主义者们来说，要缓和这种受到误导的民愤还是很容易的。比如，最后一次大型抗议运动（这是在1999年，抗议者们对世界贸易组织进行抗议活动），发生西雅图，这次运动看上去就是失去理智的。如果当时的抗议者有目的的话，那就是自私——试图通过保护主义来阻止新兴经济体富裕起来。这次抗议也有类似的现象：有零星的暴力冲突，抗议者们语无伦次的吼叫以及他们内在的不一致性。不同国家的抗议者有着不同的目的。尽管美国的民意测验显示在人们对政府的怨气面前，人们对于华尔街的不满简直就是小巫见大巫，然而，在此次的抗议中，对富人征高税收和对金融家的厌恶成为了人们最大的共同语言。
Yet even if the protests are small and muddled, it is dangerous to dismiss the broader rage that exists across the West. There are legitimate deep-seated grievances. Young people—and not just those on the streets—are likely to face higher taxes, less generous benefits and longer working lives than their parents. More immediately, houses are expensive, credit hard to get and jobs scarce—not just in old manufacturing industries but in the ritzier services that attract increasingly debt-laden graduates. In America 17.1% of those below 25 are out of work. Across the European Union, youth unemployment averages 20.9%. In Spain it is a staggering 46.2%. Only in Germany, the Netherlands and Austria is the rate in single digits.
不过，即使抗议人群数量不多，组织不严密，西方政府对存在于整个西方世界的更广泛的民愤不予重视还是很危险的。其中包括那些合理的深层次的民怨。年轻人——不仅仅是那些在大街上游行的——很可能会面临更高的税收，更低的福利以，而且还要他们的父母们工作更长的时间。他们面临的更为直接的困难是高房价、贷款难和找工作难——不仅仅是在制造业中，在那些日益受到负债累累的毕业生们追捧的服务业中也一样，这些都是年轻人面临的直接现实的难题。在美国，25岁以下的年轻人中有17.1%的人处于失业。在欧盟各国，年轻人的平均失业率为20.9%。在西班牙，这个数字是令人惊愕的46.2%。只有在德国、荷兰和奥地利，年轻人的失业率是个位数。
It is not just the young who feel squeezed. The middle-aged face falling real wages and diminished pension rights. And the elderly are seeing inflation eat away the value of their savings; in Britain prices are rising by 5.2% but bank deposits yield less than 1%. In the meantime, bankers are back to huge bonuses.
不仅仅是年轻人感到经济困难，中年人也有类似的境况，他们的实际工资正在不断下降，退休金计划也在不断缩水。另外，让那些老年人睡不好觉的则是不断在侵吞着他们的储蓄实际价值的通胀；英国的物价已经上涨到了5.2%，而银行储蓄利率还低于1%。同时，银行家门又开始瓜分起巨额的薪金。
History, misery and protest
历史、不幸和抗议
To the man-in-the-street, all this smacks of a system that has failed. Neither of the main Western models has much political credit at the moment. European social democracy promised voters benefits that societies can no longer afford. The Anglo-Saxon model claimed that free markets would create prosperity; many voters feel instead that they got a series of debt-fuelled asset bubbles and an economy that was rigged in favour of a financial elite, who took all the proceeds in the good times and then left everybody else with no alternative other than to bail them out. To use one of the protesters’ better slogans, the 1% have gained at the expense of the 99%.
对于抗议者们来说，整个政治体系都出了问题。就连在目前获得了许多政治成就的西方模式也不例外。欧洲的社会民主主义曾经向选民们许诺的福利现在已经无法兑现了。安格鲁撒克逊模式声称自由放任的市场能过创造繁荣；事实恰恰相反，许多选民认为他们得到的是由债务引起的资产泡沫以及一个受到操纵专门为金融精英们服务的经济，这些精英在经济繁荣时挥霍了所有的成果，之后使其他人别无选择，只能给他们买单。套用一些抗议者最经典的口号：“1%的人以其他99%的人受苦为代价来获得好处。”
If the grievances are more legitimate and broader than previous rages against the machine, then the dangers are also greater. Populist anger, especially if it has no coherent agenda, can go anywhere in times of want. The 1930s provided the most terrifying example. A more recent (and less frightening) case study is the tea party. The justified fury of America’s striving middle classes against a cumbersome state has in practice translated into a form of obstructive nihilism: nothing to do with taxes can get through Washington, including tax reform.
若果当前的抗议者们对体制的不满的理由比以往的抗议者的要更合理、更现实，那么他们的愤怒也会更加强烈。人民党党人的怒火可能在任何有必要的时刻蔓延到任意一个地方，尤其当他们没有一个明确的目的时。二十世纪三十年代的抗议就是一个最可怕的实例。离我们更近的是茶党（不过他们不那么可怕）。美国拥有艰苦奋斗精神的中产阶级对于这个国家的合理民怨实际上已经转化成一种碍事的无政府主义：对于税收包括税收改革能否通过国会已经没有多大帮助。
Worryingly, politicians are already in something of a funk. The Republicans first denounced the occupiers of Wall Street, then cuddled up to them. Across Europe social democratic parties have tended to lose elections if they move too far from the centre ground, but leaders, like Ed Miliband in Britain and François Hollande in France (see article), still find the anti-banker rhetoric enticing. Why not opt for a gesture—tariffs, a supertax on the rich—that may only make matters worse? A struggling Barack Obama, who has already flirted with class warfare and business-bashing, might well consider dragging China and its currency into the fray. And it will get worse: austerity and protest have always gone together.
令人担忧的是，政客们现在已经有点怯懦了。美国民主党起初对华尔街的占领者表示谴责，之后又去讨好他们。如果欧洲的社会民主党做得太过火的话，全欧洲的社会民主党可能会在竞选中落选，然而，像英国的Ed Miliband和法国的François Hollande这样的领导人还是觉得反银行家运动很诱人。为什么不这样做——对富人征收超高的税收（这可能只会把事情弄糟）？挣扎中的奥巴马政府对阶级冲突和商业问题的处理已经不太恰当，现在很可能还打算围绕中国和人民币来做文章。这将会是问题变糟：通货紧缩和抗议往往是相伴而行的。
Tackle the causes, not the symptoms
直捣症源
Braver politicians would focus on two things. The first is tackling the causes of the rage speedily. Above all that means doing more to get their economies moving again. A credible solution to the euro crisis would be a huge start. More generally, focus on policies that boost economic growth: trade less austerity in the short term for medium-term adjustments, such as a higher retirement age. Make sure the rich pay their share, but in a way that makes economic sense: you can boost the tax take from the wealthy by eliminating loopholes while simultaneously lowering marginal rates. Reform finance vigorously. “Move to Basel 3 and higher capital requirements” is not a catchy slogan, but it would do far more to shrink bonuses on Wall Street than most of the ideas echoing across from Zuccotti Park.
更勇于进取的政客会专注于两件事。第一件是马上去料理民愤的源头。总之，这意味着尽更大的努力来是经济重入增长的轨道。其中，制定出一个可信的欧元危机化解方案可能是一个重要的开端。更笼统的说，政客们要专注于自定一系列可以促进经济增长的政策：尽可能少以短期的通缩为代价来换取中期的调整，比如延长工龄的政策。同时，还要保证富人们支付应尽的税赋，但是这要以一种对经济来说有好处的办法：比如可以通过减少偷税漏税来增加从富人那里得到的税收，同时下调边际税率。最后，还要积极改革金融体系。“采取巴塞尔3以及更高的资本要求”不是一个招人耳目的口号，但是这种措施能远比Zuccotti公园中上空回响着的主意更有助于减少华尔街金融巨头们摄取的红利。
The second is telling the truth—especially about what went wrong. The biggest danger is that legitimate criticisms of the excesses of finance risk turning into an unwarranted assault on the whole of globalisation. It is worth remembering that the epicentre of the 2008 disaster was American property, hardly a free market undistorted by government. For all the financiers’ faults (“too big to fail”, the excessive use of derivatives and the rest of it), the huge hole in most governments’ finances stems less from bank bail-outs than from politicians spending too much in the boom and making promises to do with pensions and health care they never could keep. Look behind much of the current misery—from high food prices to the lack of jobs for young Spaniards—and it has less to do with the rise of the emerging world than with state interference.
第二，政客们还要坦诚——尤其是要坦白到底哪里出问题了。最大的危险是人们对于过量的金融风险的正当批评化对全球化毫无理由的通盘否定。值得铭记的是，2008年金融危机的源头是美国的资产市场，所以自由市场也难以受到政府的扭曲。尽管银行家们的种种不是（过量的使用了金融衍生品从而丧失了支付能力），但是财政的空洞更多的源于政客们在繁荣时期的过量支出以及对更高退休金和更好医疗保险的许诺（这些都是他们永远不能兑现的），而不是源于银行家们提前瓜分红利。仔细透视当前人们种种的不幸——从高物价到西班牙青年的失业——就能发现它们更和政府干预有关，而不是新兴经济体的崛起。
Global integration has its costs. It will put ever more pressure on Westerners, skilled as well as unskilled. But by any measure the benefits enormously outweigh those costs, and virtually all the ways to create jobs come from opening up economies, not following the protesters’ instincts. Western governments have failed their citizens once; building more barriers to stop goods, ideas, capital and people crossing borders would be a far greater mistake. To the extent that the protests are the first blast in a much longer, broader battle, this newspaper is firmly on the side of openness and freedom.
全球化是有代价的。它将给西方工人带来更多的压力，无论是熟练工还是非熟练工。但是，无论如何，全球化的收益大大高出了它所引起的代价，另外，事实上创造就业终究还是要靠经济的开放，绝对不能听信抗议者们的臆想。西方政府已经使自己的国民受过一次难了；通过筑起更多的壁垒，限制商品、思想、资本以及人口的国际流动总会产生更大的问题。这就说明了在更为长久、广泛的争辩中，抗议者们总是最先不攻自破的，我们这份报纸坚定地站在开放和自由这一边！
本文由自动聚合程序取自网络，内容和观点不代表数字时代立场
