译者 edourdoo
THE ESSAY
My fellow Americans, Forty years ago, one of my predecessors went to China and changed the world. He turned its most populous country from a bitter enemy of America into a cautious friend. In doing so, Richard Nixon brought China into the global economy. Now China’s economy is changing the world, which in turn has great consequences for America.
我的美国同胞们，四十年前，尼克松总统访问了中国，而这次行程改变了世界。尼克松把中国这个世界上人口最多的国家从美国的敌人变成了一个挚友。是尼克松把中国带入了世界经济的大家庭中。现在，中国的经济改变了世界，也对美国本身产生了重大的影响。
There is a truth we need to grasp. Within a few years, China’s economy will be bigger than America’s on some measures.
我们还要知道，不用几年，中国的经济在某些方面来说要超过美国。
Within a couple of decades, it will be bigger than ours on any measure.
再用不了几十年，中国经济在所有方面都会超过美国经济。
Ultimately, this is a matter of numbers. America’s economy has been the world’s biggest for 130 years because our work force is both very big – the third biggest in the world – and very productive.
当然，最终，这是一个数字的对决。美国经济在过去的130年间一直都是全球最大的，不仅是最大的，而且是最有效率的。
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China has many more workers, but they have been much less productive, and so its economy has been smaller than ours. But China’s productivity has grown remarkably in the past three decades. They have been having their own industrial revolution. With a workforce four times as large, China needs only one-quarter our per capita productivity to overtake us and become the largest economy in the world. That is what is now happening.
中国的工人数量更多，但是他们一直没有美国的劳动生产率，所以中国的经济总量一直是小于美国的。但是中国的劳动生产率在过去三十年中一直是稳步增长的，这就像是中国的工业革命。由于劳动力数量是美国的四倍， 中国只需要四分之一的劳动生产率就能够超越美国成为世界第一大经济体。这也是正在发生的事实。
This change is not about America. It is about China. America remains, in itself, as strong, resilient and creative as it has always been. But if we assumed that America would always remain the world’s largest economy when China had the world’s largest workforce, it could only have been because we believed that Chinese workers could never become even a quarter as productive as we are. And how could we ever have believed this?
这个改变不是跟美国有关，而是跟中国有关。美国仍然是世界上最强大，最有创造性的经济体，一直如此。但是如果我们认为美国会永远是世界最大经济体，那只能是说中国的劳动生产率一直都是不能达到美国的四分之一。这个可能吗？
Well, many of us have believed it because of China’s political system. We have held firm to the idea that only a system like ours can unleash the full creativity of a people. I share that belief. And yet we simply cannot ignore the fact that China’s government, for all its faults, has presided over the greatest increase in material welfare in history.
当然，我们大部分人认为这个和中国的政治制度有关。中国那样的政治制度怎么可能会让人们释放出那样的创造性呢？我也是这么认为。尽管是这样，我们还是不能忽视这样一个事实，中国的政府，不管他有什么致命的弱点，在他们的治下，中国还是创造出来了人类历史上最大的财富传奇。
Perhaps it will not last. Perhaps China’s people will demand more political freedom and participation from their rulers. But if they do, will that slow their growth in the long run? If the people of China do indeed take the path to democracy, it is more likely – once the turbulence subsides – to strengthen their economy than to weaken it.
或许这个奇迹不能持续。或许中国的人民会要求更过的政治自由和政治参与。但是即使是这样，这样一定会减缓中国的经济发展速度吗？如果中国的人民真的实现了他们的民主化梦想，更可能的现实是，民主制度只会增强中国经济的韧性，而不是削弱它。
As China’s economy grows, the other dimensions of its power will grow, too. We need to recognise this, but we need also to keep it in perspective. China will remain a strong country, but it will never rule the world. It will have to deal with many other strong states – Japan, India, Russia, the EU and, of course, the US. Unlike us, it will have little ability to project its military power over the seas, even in the western Pacific.
随着中国经济的增长，中国其他的力量也在增长。中国将会是一个强大的国家，但是他不会统治这个世界。中国需要冷静对待其他的世界大国-日本，俄国，印度，欧盟和美国。中国在自己的海域都没有足够的海军力量，更不用提整个西太平洋了。
While its interests will expand around the world, it will remain focused on East Asia.
中国在全球扩张，但是她还是会把重心放在东亚。
But as China’s power grows, I believe it will want to be a great power again, and to be treated as a great power by others.
但是随着中国综合国力的增长，中国作为一个冉冉升起的世界大国的地位也需要被世界承认。
That raises a question: how will China use its power? Will it be a harsh bully or a co-operative partner in a regional order? The answers are not yet clear.
但是问题来了，中国如何使用她的的综合国力呢？他会是一个恶霸，还是一个地区良好秩序的合作者？我们不知道。
One thing, however, is clear. China’s ambitions are not compatible with the old order, the one that has kept the region peaceful and prosperous for four decades since Nixon met Mao. Since 1972, America’s role as the leader of Asia has been uncontested by any other major power.
有一点时很清楚的，中国的野心是和尼克松毛泽东会面四十年以来保持世界经济繁荣和和平的当今的世界格局不相符合的。1972年以来，美国一直是亚洲不可挑战的世界霸权。
We have been not just a leader in Asia but the leader in Asia.
美国不仅是领导者，而是唯一的领导者。
But today we face a new reality. China has begun unmistakably to contest American primacy in Asia and the regional order that has been built on it.
但是，当今的额中国正在亚洲不断挑战美国的霸权。
The choice America faces is how we respond to China’s challenge to our leadership of Asia. I believe we have three alternatives.
美国如何应对这个挑战呢？我认为有三个选项。
First, we can withdraw from Asia.
第一，撤出亚洲。
However, this would leave Asia to be dominated by China, or devastated by the rivalry of Asia’s great powers. This would threaten both America’s security and its economy. There is no peaceful and prosperous future for Asia without a strong US presence, and there is no peaceful and prosperous future for America without a peaceful and prosperous Asia.
这样一来，中国就会主宰亚洲。这对美国的经济和国家安全都是一个极大的挑战。如果没有美国的存在，亚洲不会有和平，世界也不会有和平。
Second, we can push back against China’s challenge, aiming to maintain our supremacy and compelling China to accept it.
第二，我们可以强制的中国接受美国的霸权。
For many this is a natural, instinctive response. And if China is determined to dominate Asia by force, it will be the right response. But we should be under no illusions about its cost.
但是，这样做的成本有多大呢？中国人会怎么应对美国的强力打压呢？
China will not simply back down if America pushes back. It would push back at us, and we would push back again in turn. In this fashion, America would find itself in a new and dangerous era of rivalry.
中国不仅会强力的反击，美国的处境也会越来越危险。
The third option is to seek an agreement with China about a new order in Asia, an order that would allow China a bigger role, but preserve a significant role for America in keeping Asia secure.
第三个选项就是和中国达成在亚洲分权的协议。中国拥有更多的话语权，美国也仍然是亚洲不可忽视的力量。
By remaining engaged, America will balance China’s power and help ensure that its power is not misused. By stepping back from primacy and allowing China a bigger role, we will seek an accord that avoids the risks of rivalry, while preserving America’s key interests.
作为一个制衡，美国的存在会让中国不至于滥用自己的权力，这样也会避免了冲突，同时保存了美国的主要战略利益。
The essence of such an accord is simple. America and China would share power in Asia as equal partners in a joint regional leadership. That does not mean we would agree about everything, but it does mean we would manage our disagreements carefully.
这样关系的实质很简单，美国和中国需要分享权力。两国处理分歧的时候也要更加谨慎。
Such a deal would depend as much on China as it does on us.
这样的关系有赖于双方的努力。
China would have to accept that it will not be able to take over the leadership of Asia, as I’m sure many Chinese hope and expect.
中国需要认识到，中国不能像他的国民们认为的做亚洲的老大。
It would require them to accept that their country, for all its wealth and strength, will be subject to the checks and balances imposed by American power.
中国需要认识到，尽管中国拥有亚洲第一强大的综合国力，但是他还是要接受美国的制衡。
Many in China would not want to accept this state of affairs.
很多中国人不这么认为。
They would argue that China should push America out of Asia and take its place as Asia’s primary power. To them I have a clear message: America will not accept Chinese primacy. We do not believe that such primacy would be accepted by China’s neighbours in Asia. If now, or in the future, China tries to impose it upon them by force or other forms of pressure or intimidation, America will lead them in resisting China.
很多中国人认为应该把美国人赶出亚洲，中国来做亚洲的老大哥。对这些人，我想说：美国绝对不会接受中国的霸权，亚洲的紧邻也不会接受这样的结果。如果中国想要用强制的武力恫吓亚洲国家，他们会跟随美国抵抗中国。
But if China is willing, America will work with it as an equal partner in a shared leadership to build and maintain, with other countries, an international order in Asia that conforms to the broad principles laid down in the UN Charter.
但是如果中国人愿意，美国人会乐意在联合国宪章的架构下，和中国以及其他的亚洲国家分享在亚洲的权力。
America, too, faces a hard choice. Throughout our history we have seen ourselves not as a country like other countries, but as a nation apart. An exceptional country. This has always posed a profound dilemma for our foreign policy: how do we reconcile our sense of exceptionalism with the need to work as a nation among other nations in the international community? And how do we remain true to our exceptional nature while working with the world as it is? The answer has always been that we must deal realistically with the world as we find it, or sacrifice our own interests and those of wider humanity. Even so, many will say that never before in our history have we dealt with any country as an equal in the way I am proposing we deal with China. That is true. But never before in our history have we encountered a country like China – a country with the potential to become as rich and strong as China is set to do.
美国也面临一个严峻的挑战，那就是在历史上，美国从来都是有一种例外论。这也带给美国的外交政策一个难题：如果把这种例外和国际社会的规则相结合？如何保持这种例外论，并且与国际社会合作？美国必须从很现实的角度出发，在必要的时候要牺牲小我成就大我。历史上美国也还从来没有向对待中国这样的对等权力一样，中国很可能会和美国一样富有和强大。
America is going to have to deal with the world rather differently from now on, not because America has changed, but because the world is different.
美国也需要用不同的眼光来对着这个世界，不是因为美国变了，而是因为世界变了。
Many will say that America cannot deal with China as an equal because its values are so different from ours. China’s government suppresses political dissent, denies religious freedom and perpetuates a political system that deprives people of the right to choose their own government. We should deplore these things, and I do.
很多人说美国不可能平等的对待中国，因为中国的政治制度和我们的差别太大了，中国的统治者们决不允许政治异议，中国人也不能选举自己的政府。这的确很遗憾，我也这么认为。
In justice, however, we should also acknowledge that many good things are happening in China. Hundreds of millions of Chinese live better, fuller lives than their parents could have dreamed of because of the economic growth China has achieved. Better homes, better schools, better food, better jobs, better healthcare – these material things have real moral value, and it would be dishonest not to acknowledge this achievement.
但是，我们必须承认，中国也在发生很多可喜的转变。中国经济的快速发展使得很多中国人能够获得他们父辈难以想象的好生活。房子大了，学校更漂亮了，好吃的更多了，工作更舒心了，医疗也更加有保障了。我们绝对不可以忽视这些物质层面上的成就。
Treating China as an equal does not mean that we should ignore the bad things that happen. It means that we should consider carefully what kind of relationship would be best for the people of America, and best for the people of China, and best for people everywhere. The choices we face about our future with China have real consequences for the kind of world we will live in.
当然，平等的对待中国决不是意味着我们会忽视中国的丑恶。这是我们要认真考虑什么样的关系对美国人来说最好，对中国最好，对世界最好。美国和中国的关系取舍会影响到全世界人类的福祉。
Once Americans accepted the burden of leadership because it was the only way to keep America safe and the world at peace. But they also recognised that in time a new order could arise in which the US worked with others as equal partners to keep the world stable and prosperous.
美国的领导重担是保持世界和平的最重要的力量。但是美国也需要学会和其他国家平等的对话和合作。
President Nixon had such a vision before he went to China. In 1972 he told Time magazine, “I think it will be a safer world and a better world if we have a strong, healthy United States, Europe, Soviet Union, China, Japan, each balancing the other.”
尼克松在访华前接受《时代周刊》的访问时曾经说到：我认为如果美国，欧洲，苏联，中国和日本都很强大，这对世界的制衡很重要。
And President Bill Clinton said a decade ago: “America has two choices. We can use our great and unprecedented military and economic power to try to stay top dog on the global block in perpetuity. Or we can seek to use that power to create a world in which we are comfortable living when we are no longer top dog on the global block.”
克林顿总统十年前曾经说过：美国人有两个选择，我们可以尽力保持世界第一的霸主地位，我们也可以创造一个美国不是世界第一但仍然安全舒适的国家环境。
Today we confront that choice. I think most of us would agree that America’s political system has not been at its best these past few years. The tougher we politicians have talked, the more reluctant we have been to face tough facts and take tough decisions. Perhaps we feel America is so strong that we do not need to see the world as it really is. That would be a historic mistake, and contrary to America’s true strengths and virtues.
现在我们就面临这样的挑战。我们需要承认美国过去几年的政治制度不是最好的。我们政客们说的很多，但是在面对严峻的事实的时候反而做的很少。也许是因为我们认为美国实在是太强大了，不需要面对真实的世界了。那样做就大错特错了，这样违背美国的精神。
We need now as a country to debate our future with China carefully, soberly, responsibly and realistically. America’s future depends on it.
我们在对待中美关系这个问题上，需要一个认真，清醒，负责以及现实的态度。美国的未来和它息息相关。
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-speech-obama-should-make-20120803-23l4p.html#ixzz22Yo7ahmg
本文由自动聚合程序取自网络，内容和观点不代表数字时代立场
