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”里有没有藏人的梦?

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继续抱有这样的希望是不是合适?即中共新的领导人习近平将在西藏问题上有变化。许多人希望的是转硬为软的变化,甚至不止于此,用类似于外交辞令的说法,希望有“积极的变化”。

我很头疼被人追问如何展望习时代的西藏问题。因为随之而来的,往往会捎带一些听上去带有感情的往昔故事作为注脚。在故事中,尊者达赖喇嘛二十出头,习近平的父亲习仲勋是正当壮年的中共高官,彼此似乎当时就结下了友谊。的确,尊者回忆过与习仲勋的交往,留下的是温和、开明的印象。不过习仲勋曾被毛泽东称赞“比诸葛亮还厉害”,而这也是与藏人有关。说来话长,总之他当时统战成功,劝降抵抗的藏人首领项谦,毛于是将他与七擒孟获的诸葛亮类比,而孟获不正是少数民族头领?历史上有无此事众说纷纭,孟获下场如何不得而知,但项谦却是在几年后死于共产党的狱中。

鉴于习近平的位高权重已无人能比,人们在预测他治理西藏的动向,除了分析他的亡父对尊者达赖喇嘛及十世班禅大师亲善有加,还会说起他的年迈母亲与歌唱家夫人彭丽媛都是“佛教徒”,还说彭丽媛“拜藏传师”而这岂不是与西藏的关系更为亲密?这么不停地说啊说,似乎西藏的未来会因此而有一线甚至更多的光明。

可是真的会这样吗?中国文化的祖先孔子有句名言:“观其言而察其行”。对于即将完全掌握大权的习近平,十八大之后说得最多的可能是这句话:“实现中华民族伟大复兴”。并将其浓缩为“中国梦”,但不认为是空想,因为他用标准的普通话强调:“何为中国梦?我以为,实现中华民族伟大复兴,就是中华民族近代最伟大中国梦。现在比历史上任何时期都接近这一目标。”

中共的传统是每个领导人都有其纲领,邓小平是“改革开放”,江泽民是“三个代表”,胡锦涛是“和谐社会”,而习近平应是“中华民族复兴”。那么“中华民族复兴”与什么息息相关?今年1月28日,习近平就钓鱼岛局势的表态是强硬的。他说:“决不能放弃我们的正当权益,决不能牺牲国家核心利益。任何外国不要指望我们会拿自己的核心利益做交易,不要指望我们会吞下损害我国主权、安全、发展利益的苦果。”而这个“核心利益”,毋庸赘言,主要指的是领土与主权。

已经有分析人士注意到习与前任不同的是以强调“中华民族复兴”宣示民族主义立场;“中国梦”是一个中华大帝国之梦。放眼望去,老牌的帝国主义国家日落西山,而新兴的帝国主义国家正在崛起。领土自主权乃重中之重,已在手中的决不放弃,不在手中的竭力攫取。事例有二:去年中国通过启用新版电子护照,来宣示对于南中国海、中印争议地区和台湾的主权;而钓鱼岛之争,使得习亲任“钓鱼岛应变小组”组长,统辖军队、情报、外交及海监执法部门。

藏人也是有梦想的。无外乎有二:尊者达赖喇嘛是以“中间道路”的方式来求得西藏的高度自治;但追求西藏独立的意愿也是逐日增多。在中共看来,“中间道路”是“变相独立”,与“独立”一样罪不可赦,因为都关乎领土与主权,关涉中国的“核心利益”,这样的梦想是必须要粉碎的。

尽管有人不相信习近平能“实现中华民族伟大复兴”,认为“一个被剥夺精神和灵魂的民族是不会真正复兴的”,但有个事实是清楚的,无论实现与否,这个“中国梦”里是没有藏人的梦的。

(本文为自由亚洲电台特约评论,相关内容并由自由亚洲电台藏语专题节目广播,转载请注明。)

‘No Room for Tibetans in the Chinese Dream’ 
By Tsering Woeser

Tsering Woeser, who is one of 10 Women of Courage honored by the U.S. State Department this week, has used her blog, Invisible Tibet, together with her poetry and nonfiction and social media platforms like Twitter to give voice to millions of ethnic Tibetans who are prevented from expressing themselves to the outside world by government curbs on information. Woeser continues to document the situation of Tibetans in spite of constant surveillance and house arrest.

In a commentary broadcast by RFA’s Mandarin Service, she assesses the likelihood of a less hard-line policy on Tibet with the advent of China’s new leadership under Communist Party chief Xi Jinping:

Perhaps it’s inappropriate to continue to hope that we will see any change from the new leader of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, on Tibet? I think that a lot of people are hoping for a softer line, or even for something like the “positive changes” we have heard spoken about in diplomatic statements.

So many people have asked me what to expect from the Xi administration on Tibet that I am getting a headache. This is because that is often followed up with a story from the past that is supposed to sound heartening. The story goes that His Holiness the Dalai Lama met with Xi’s father when he was in his early twenties … and had an impression of warmth and open-mindedness from the friendship.

But Confucius, that ancestor of Chinese culture, has a saying: “Look not at someone’s words but at their actions.” Xi Jinping, about to fully grasp power at the 18th Party Congress [in November], talked about “achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” and focused on the “Chinese dream.”

I don’t think this is fantasy. I think that the Chinese people are closer to realizing this goal now than at any other point in history.

According to Party tradition, every leader has his own agenda. Deng Xiaoping’s was “reform and opening up.” Jiang Zemin had the “Three Represents.” Hu Jintao’s was “a harmonious society.” And Xi Jinping’s should be “the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.

And to what is the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation closely related?

On Jan. 28 this year, Xi Jinping took a stand and got tough on the Diaoyu Islands. He said: “We must not give up our legitimate rights and interests, and we must not sacrifice our core national interests.”

Analysts noted that Xi’s emphasis on “the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and “the Chinese dream” are actually a dream of a Chinese empire.

Looking ahead, the sun is setting on the veteran imperialist countries, while the emerging empires are on the rise. Territorial autonomy is a top priority, and has usually been focused on never giving it up, rather than on trying to grab it.

The Tibetans’ dream is nothing less than the “Middle Way” of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, who seeks a high degree of autonomy in Tibet; although support for the pursuit of independence for Tibet increases daily.

But it seems that for the Chinese Communist Party, the “Middle Way” is still “de facto independence,” and “independence” is a sin which cannot be pardoned. It interferes with China’s “core interests” relating to territory and sovereignty, and so this dream must be crushed.

Some people do not believe that Xi Jinping can achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and feel that the renaissance of a nation deprived of its spirit and soul is no renaissance at all.

But one fact is clear. There is no room for the dreams of Tibetans in the “Chinese dream.”

Translated by Luisetta Mudie.(http://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/room-03052013153949.html

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