\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u4e0e\u6cbb\u7406
\n\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u5f17\u6717\u897f\u65af\u2022\u798f\u5c71\u8457\uff0c\u5434\u4e07\u4f1f\u8bd1<\/p>\n
\u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1a\u5f17\u6717\u897f\u65af\u00b7\u798f\u5c71(Francis Fukuyama)\uff0c\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u76ca\u300b\u7f16\u8f91\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u672c\u6587\u9009\u81ea\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\uff1a\u4ece\u53f2\u524d\u65f6\u671f\u5230\u6cd5\u56fd\u5927\u9769\u547d\u300b(Farrar, Straus and Giroux)\u3002<\/p>\n
\u867d\u7136\u6700\u8fd1\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u754c\u65e0\u6cd5\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u8ba2\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ec0\u4e48\u6307\u5bfc\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\u4e0e\u5f53\u524d\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u3001\u57c3\u53ca\u548c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff1a\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u00b7\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f (Samuel Huntington)40\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u4e66\u300a\u53d8\u9769\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u300b1 \u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u5168\u9762\u7406\u89e3\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u9769\u4e4b\u95f4\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6279\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u8fd9\u79cd\u5927\u89c6\u89d2\u906d\u5230\u524a\u5f31\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u601d\u60f3\u4e0a\u8fd8\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u672f\u8bed\u4e0a\u90fd\u66f4\u96be\u4e86\u89e3\u5bf9\u5f53\u4eca\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf1950\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c1960\u5e74\u4ee3\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u9677\u5165\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u65f6\uff0c\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\u4e0d\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u5411\u73b0\u4ee3\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u987a\u5229\u8f6c\u578b\u800c\u662f\u5e38\u5e38\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u53d8\u3001\u9769\u547d\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u63a5\u7ba1\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u3001\u53d7\u5230\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u8005\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u548c\u671f\u5f85\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u9e3f\u6c9f\uff0c\u8be5\u4f53\u5236\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u673a\u5236\u3002\u4ed6\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u6761\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u88d9\u5e26\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u65b0\u83b7\u5f97\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u63d0\u4f9b\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u548c\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4ed6\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u5f88\u5c11\u662f\u7a77\u4eba\u4e2d\u6700\u8d2b\u7a77\u7684\u4eba\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u800c\u662f\u5bf9\u7f3a\u4e4f\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u673a\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u6cae\u4e27\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u6258\u514b\u7ef4\u5c14(Alexis de Tocqueville)\u5728\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6cd5\u56fd\u5927\u9769\u547d\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u7684\u7cbe\u5de7\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u57281960\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u88ab\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u6234\u7ef4\u65af(James Davies)\u7684\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201cJ\u66f2\u7ebf\u201d\u9769\u547d\u7406\u8bba\u6240\u518d\u6b21\u91cd\u590d\u30022<\/p>\n
\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5f62\u52bf\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u548c\u57c3\u53ca\u90fd\u9010\u6e10\u5c55\u5f00\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53cd\u653f\u5e9c\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0d\u662f\u90fd\u5e02\u7a77\u4eba\u6216\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u5730\u4e0b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\uff0c\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u9886\u8896\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u53d7\u5230\u5e38\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7Facebook\u548cTwitter\u7b49\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u826f\u597d\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u3002\u8c37\u6b4c\u7684\u533a\u57df\u8425\u9500\u4e3b\u7ba1\u74e6\u4f0a\u5c14\u00b7\u9ad8\u5c3c\u59c6(Wael Ghonim)\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u57c3\u53ca\u7684\u8c61\u5f81\u548c\u9886\u8896\u51b3\u975e\u5de7\u5408\u3002\u6297\u8bae\u8005\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u672c\u963f\u91cc\u548c\u7a46\u5df4\u62c9\u514b\u7b49\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u4f4d\u76f8\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u540e\u6765\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7fa4\u4f53\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u5982\u5de5\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u3001\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u5206\u5b50\u3001\u519c\u6c11\u548c\u5bf9\u65e7\u653f\u6743\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u91cf\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u548c\u57c3\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u73b0\u4ee3\u6d3e\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bb9\u7eb3\u65b0\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u673a\u5236\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u6267\u653f\u5b98\u4e3b\u4e49(praetorianism)\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u5f62\u5f0f\u53ea\u80fd\u662f\u7f62\u5de5\u3001\u793a\u5a01\u6e38\u884c\u3001\u6297\u8bae\u548c\u66b4\u529b\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u519b\u65b9\u5e38\u5e38\u6293\u4f4f\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u552f\u4e00\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002\u57c3\u53ca\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14(Gamal Abdel Nasser)\u6070\u6070\u5c31\u662f\u57281952\u5e747\u6708\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0a\u53f0\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u519b\u5b98\u8fd0\u52a8\u5c31\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u57c3\u53ca\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u57c3\u53ca\u7684\u60b2\u5267\u662f\u5728\u6b64\u540e\u534a\u4e2a\u591a\u4e16\u7eaa\u91cc\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u7528\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u7684\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u5f62\u6210\u80fd\u548c\u5e73\u5730\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u6c11\u53c2\u4e0e\u6e20\u9053\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5236\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u8fdb\u5c55\u8fc5\u901f\uff1a\u57281990-2010\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u6307\u6570(\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7f16\u5236\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u6536\u5165\u7b49\u7efc\u5408\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6807)\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 30%\uff0c\u57c3\u53ca\u589e\u52a0\u4e8628%\u3002\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u4f7f\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5229\u76ca\u843d\u5165\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7279\u6743\u9636\u5c42\u3002\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u5bf91950\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c1960\u5e74\u4ee3\u57c3\u53ca\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4ecd\u7136\u5bf9\u5f53\u4eca\u60c5\u51b5\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u4e5f\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u672c\u8eab\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u9700\u8981\u5728\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5927\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u6765\u770b\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u662f\u7231\u5fb7\u534e\u00b7\u5e0c\u5c14\u65af(Edward Shils)\u3001\u5854\u5c14\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u5e15\u68ee\u65af(Talcott Parsons)\u548c\u6c83\u5c14\u7279\u00b7\u7f57\u65af\u6258(Walt W. Rostow)\u7b49\u5b66\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u768419\u4e16\u7eaa\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u5355\u4e00\u7684\uff0c\u65e0\u7f1d\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5173\u7cfb\u5982\u5927\u5bb6\u5ead\u4eb2\u5c5e\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u89e3\u4f53\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\u5305\u5bb9\u6027\u66f4\u5f3a\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u8303\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u6210\u5c31\u201d\u548c\u7406\u6027\u3001\u4e16\u4fd7\u5316\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u673a\u6784\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u7b49\u90fd\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n
\u901a\u8fc7\u6307\u51fa\u73b0\u4ee3\u6027\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5e76\u975e\u4e00\u5b9a\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u51e0\u4e4e\u98a0\u8986\u4e86\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u5206\u5f00\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c6\u89d2\u5f97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u8fdd\u53cd\u5e38\u8bc6\u7684\u751a\u81f3\u5230\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u5403\u60ca\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u540e\u679c\u5982\u72ec\u88c1\u3001\u5185\u6218\u548c\u7fa4\u4f17\u66b4\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u897f\u65b9\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u9677\u5165\u540d\u8a89\u626b\u5730\u7684\u5883\u5730\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u628a\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u5b83\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u50cf\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f00\u8f9f\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u9053\u8def\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u6e05\u695a\u8bf4\u660e\u8fbe\u5230\u6e34\u671b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u6bd4\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u60f3\u7684\u66f4\u96be\u4ee5\u6349\u6478\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u201c\u4e13\u5236\u8fc7\u6e21\u201d(authoritarian transition)\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u653f\u515a\u3001\u5de5\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u4e13\u4e1a\u534f\u4f1a\u3001\u548c\u80fd\u591f\u89c4\u8303\u53c2\u4e0e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6210\u719f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u8fc7\u65e9\u5730\u8fdb\u5165\u5bf9\u6297\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e71\u3002\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u7ef4\u6301\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u76d1\u7763\u66f4\u52a0\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7b49\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u53c2\u4e0e\u53ef\u4ee5\u548c\u5e73\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u624d\u8f6c\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4f18\u5148\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u987a\u5e8f\u6b63\u662f\u50cf\u97e9\u56fd\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u9053\u8def\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u6210\u529f\u5730\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u53d8\u6210\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u6e90\u6cc9\u4e4b\u540e\u57281980\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u671f\u5b9e\u73b0\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u4ece\u524d\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u6cd5\u91cc\u5fb7\u00b7\u624e\u5361\u91cc\u4e9a(Fareed Zakaria)\u63a8\u8350\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u66f4\u559c\u6b22\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u4e13\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\u9886\u8896\u4e5f\u559c\u6b22\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d1\u5c55\u6218\u7565\u30023 \u6211\u4eec\u968f\u540e\u56de\u5934\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6218\u7565\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5982\u4f55\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c71\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/p>\n
\u867d\u7136\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4f4d\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u601d\u60f3\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4e3b\u6d41\u601d\u60f3\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u9886\u57df\u3002\u5f88\u5c11\u5b66\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u7406\u89e3\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u5185\u5728\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20\u5982\u8d44\u672c\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u3001\u6280\u672f\u7b49\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u300250\u5e74\u4ee3\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u54c8\u7f57\u5fb7-\u591a\u9a6c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b(The Harrod-Domar)\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2b\u7a77\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7f3a\u5c11\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u50cf\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u7b49\u53d1\u5c55\u673a\u6784\u901a\u8fc7\u6177\u6168\u6ce8\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\u8fdb\u884c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5efa\u8bbe\u6765\u63a8\u52a8\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u5230\u4e86\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u6c99\u6f20\u4ee5\u5357\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u94a2\u94c1\u5382\u548c\u76ae\u978b\u5382\u56e0\u4e3a\u8150\u8d25\u548c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u80fd\u529b\u800c\u8352\u829c\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u88ab\u8feb\u4ece\u5934\u518d\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n
\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5219\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u5f0f\u7684\u5927\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7f29\u51cf\u91ce\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4ece1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8fdb\u5165\u6216\u8d70\u51fa\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u3001\u8461\u8404\u7259\u548c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u4e3a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u7d27\u8feb\u7684\u8bae\u9898\u3002\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e4b\u95f4\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u867d\u7136\u4e5f\u6709\u4e9b\u590d\u5174\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u5bfc\u81f4\u628a\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5171\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5173\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u628a\u6c11\u4e3b\u63a8\u5e7f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u9886\u57df\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u3002\u8be5\u89c2\u70b9\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8e1970\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e0e\u5fb7\u56fd\u653f\u515a\u6709\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u673a\u6784\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u51fb\u9000\u4e86\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u63a5\u6536\u8461\u8404\u7259\u653f\u6743\u7684\u4f01\u56fe\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u30021980\u5e74\u4ee3\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a(NED)\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u51c6\u72ec\u7acb\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u7528\u6765\u652f\u6301\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u4eb2\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u8be5\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5728\u6ce2\u5170\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u57ae\u53f0\u4e4b\u524d\u8d44\u52a9\u4e86\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u30021990\u5e74\u4ee3\u770b\u5230\u80fd\u591f\u76d1\u7763\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u4f17\u591a\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u589e\u957f\u548c\u8d44\u52a9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u53d1\u5c55\u5c40\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u90e8\u7684\u8d44\u52a9\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u6bcf\u5e74\u51e0\u4e4e15\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5230\u4e861990\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u671f\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u8bae\u7a0b\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u67d0\u79cd\u6c47\u5408\u3002\u5230\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u8bfa\u65af(Douglass North)\u548c\u4ed6\u521b\u7acb\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u201d\u8ba9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8d22\u4ea7\u6743\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u8bd5\u56fe\u628a\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u91cf\u5982\u6cd5\u5236\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u5bf9\u884c\u653f\u6743\u529b\u7684\u76d1\u7763\u5236\u8861\u7eb3\u5165\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8fd9\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6240\u6b96\u6c11\u5316\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f88\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u5f85\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u6027\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u9014\u5f84\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u51fa\u73b0\u57281995\u5e74\u52302005\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u6c83\u5c14\u82ac\u68ee(James Wolfenson)\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u30024 \u6c83\u5c14\u82ac\u68ee\u65e9\u5c31\u53d1\u8868\u6f14\u8bb2\u5411\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u8868\u660e\u201c\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u764c\u75c7\u201d\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u50cf\u8150\u8d25\u548c\u5584\u653f\u7b49\u653f\u6cbb\u8bae\u9898\u5f00\u59cb\u88ab\u4e25\u8083\u5bf9\u5f85\u3002\u201c1997\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u53d1\u5c55\u62a5\u544a\uff1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u51fa\u7248\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u601d\u60f3\u754c\u8131\u79bb\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u7f29\u5c0f\u653f\u5e9c\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u673a\u6784\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\u6539\u9769\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u6210\u4e3a\u516c\u5f00\u627f\u8ba4\u653f\u6cbb\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u969c\u788d\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u6350\u52a9\u673a\u6784\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u63a8\u52a8\u628a\u6c11\u4e3b\u95ee\u8d23\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53cd\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6df7\u4e71\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4e25\u91cd\u7834\u788e\u5316\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\u5f80\u5f80\u76f8\u4e92\u6253\u67b6\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u57c3\u585e\u4fc4\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u6885\u83b1\u65af\u2022\u6cfd\u7eb3\u7ef4(Meles Zenawi)\u3001\u5362\u65fa\u8fbe\u7684\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u5361\u52a0\u6885(Paul Kagame)\u548c\u4e4c\u5e72\u8fbe\u7684\u7ea6\u97e6\u91cc\u00b7\u7a46\u585e\u97e6\u5c3c(Yoweri Museveni)\u7b49\u72ec\u88c1\u6216\u534a\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u536b\u751f\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u76ee\u6807\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u826f\u597d\u8bb0\u5f55\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb10\u5e74\u4e00\u76f4\u5f97\u5230\u5927\u91cf\u63f4\u52a9\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u63a8\u5e7f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5219\u6fc0\u70c8\u6279\u5224\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7fa4\u4f53\u548c\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5bf9\u884c\u653f\u6743\u529b\u7684\u95ee\u8d23\u548c\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u63f4\u52a9\u673a\u6784\u5e76\u4e0d\u53cd\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u6743\u5728\u66f4\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5b9e\u73b0\u8d23\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u63a8\u5e7f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e5f\u4e0d\u963b\u788d\u6cbb\u7597\u827e\u6ecb\u75c5\u6216\u759f\u75be\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u4e8b\u4e1a\u3002\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u73b0\u6709\u63f4\u52a9\u9879\u76ee\u662f\u5728\u5e2e\u52a9\u5f53\u6743\u8005\u5de9\u56fa\u6743\u529b\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u7834\u574f\u653f\u6743\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a?<\/p>\n
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\u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/p>\n
1 Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies: With a New Forward by Francis Fukuyama (Yale University Press, 2006).<\/p>\n
2 Davies, \u201cTowards a Theory of Revolution\u201d, American Sociological Review, Vol. 27 (1962).<\/p>\n
3 Zakaria, The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad (W. W. Norton, 2003); see also Zakaria, \u201cA Conversation with Lee Kuan Yew\u201d, Foreign Affairs (March\/April 1994).<\/p>\n
4 For a description of the Wolfenson presidency, see Sebastian Mallaby, The World\u2019s Banker: A Story of Failed States, Financial Crises, and the Wealth and Poverty of Nations (Penguin Press, 2004).<\/p>\n
5 See Harold James\u2019s retroview, entitled \u201cGrowing Pains\u201d, of a classic December 1963 essay by Mancur Olson (\u201cRapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force\u201d) in The American Interest (September\/October 2006).<\/p>\n
\u8bd1\u81ea\uff1aPolitical Order in Egypt Francis Fukuyama<\/p>\n
http:\/\/www.the-american-interest.com\/article.cfm?piece=953<\/p>\n