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Zoellick\uff095\u65e5\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u5f15\u64ce\u9700\u8981\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u53ef\u4ee5\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4ef0\u8cf4\u4ee5\u51fa\u53e3\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u70ba\u5c0e\u5411\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u8f03\u6b50\u3001\u4e9e\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u524d\u666f\u62b1\u6301\u8f03\u60b2\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u60e1\u5316\u8d85\u904e\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6301\u7a69\u7684\u53d7\u8a2a\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u53e6\u670921%\u7f8e\u570b\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5e74\u6050\u63d0\u4f9b\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u50c5\u6b21\u65bc\u6b50\u6d32\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u5e36\u9818\u4e2d\u570b\u5b89\u6e21\u8af8\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6311\u6230\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4f9d\u7136\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6eff\u6eff\u3002\u670948%\u53d7\u8a2a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u80e1\u9326\u6fe4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u653f\u7b56\u62b1\u6301\u6a02\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u53e6\u670940%\u5247\u62b1\u6301\u60b2\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u570b\u8a02\u65bc\u660e\u5e74\u7a0d\u665a\u63a8\u9078\u51fa\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\uff0c\u80e1\u9326\u6fe4\u8207\u6eab\u5bb6\u5bf6\u96d9\u96d9\u5c07\u65bc2013\u5e743\u6708\u4e0b\u53f0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u8f03\u65e5\u672c\u9996\u76f8\u91ce\u7530\u4f73\u5f65\uff08Yoshihiko Noda\uff09\uff0c\u5f6d\u535a\u8a02\u6236\u7d66\u4e88\u80e1\u9326\u6fe4\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u3002\u50c5\u670924%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8a8d\u540c\u91ce\u7530\u7684\u65bd\u6551\uff0c\u53e6\u6709\u9ad8\u905445%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u9019\u4f4d5\u5e74\u4f86\u7b2c6\u4f4d\u9996\u76f8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u62b1\u6301\u60b2\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9999\u6e2f\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u4e9e\u6d32\u516c\u53f8 (Societe Generale Asia Ltd.)\u4e9e\u6d32\u8b49\u5238\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u99ac\u4e01\uff08Todd Martin\uff09\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u81f4\u529b\u5c0d\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u8207\u623f\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u5927\u8868\u8b9a\u8cde\u3002\u4e2d\u570b8\u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u8f03\u4e0a\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u4e0a\u53476.2%\uff0c\u5347\u5e45\u4f4e\u65bc7\u6708\u76846.5%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u904e\u53bb20\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6700\u58de\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u51fa\u73fe\u57281999\u5e74\u7b2c4\u5b63\uff0c\u53d7\u7d2f1997-98\u5e74\u4e9e\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7576\u5b63GDP\u50c5\u90546%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u532f\u8c50\u63a7\u80a1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5bb6\u5c48\u5b8f\u658c\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u8eab\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u6700\u591a\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u786c\u8457\u9678\u300d\uff0c\u6210\u9577\u7387\u4e0d\u52305%\uff0c\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u800c\u8a00\u5c07\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u300c\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c48\u5b8f\u658c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5c07\u7121\u6cd5\u70ba\u6e67\u5165\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6c42\u8077\u4eba\u6f6e\u5275\u9020\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u4e00\u4f86\uff0c\u6050\u5f15\u7206\u300c\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u793e\u6703\u554f\u984c\u300d\u3002\u300c\u6211\u5be7\u9858\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\u5c07\u65bc5\u5e74\u5167\u964d\u81e8\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u62bc\u5bf6\u4e2d\u570b\u6210\u9577\u5c07\u6e1b\u901f\u81f35%\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u4e26\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u5bb6\u5747\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6210\u9577\u6e1b\u901f\u81f35%\u5c07\u4e0d\u5229\u4e2d\u570b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b78\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u767d\u63d0\u65af\uff08Michael Pettis\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u82e5\u6210\u529f\u8f49\u578b\uff0c\u5be6\u73fe\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u5c07\u6709\u671b\u964d\u4f4e\u9ad8\u5931\u696d\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u501f\u8cb8\u904e\u5ea6\u7684\u767c\u751f\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u767d\u63d0\u65af\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u53ea\u8981\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u529f\u8f49\u578b\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u6210\u9577\u5927\u5e45\u8da8\u7de9\u3002\u300d\uff08\u8b6f\u8005\uff1a\u4e2d\u592e\u793e\u8d99\u851a\u862d\uff091000929<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/api.mixpanel.com\/track\/?data=eyJldmVudCI6ICJmdWxsdGV4dGltcHJlc3Npb24iLCAicHJvcGVydGllcyI6IHsidG9rZW4iOiAiYTRhNDYwYTM5MDRlZWU4ZmY1ZTAyNGVhNGJkZTdhYzIifX0=&#038;ip=1&#038;img=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" border=\"0\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/pixel.quantserve.com\/pixel\/p-89EKCgBk8MZdE.gif\" border=\"0\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><small>\u672c\u6587\u7531\u81ea\u52a8\u805a\u5408\u7a0b\u5e8f\u53d6\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5185\u5bb9\u548c\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3\u7acb\u573a<\/small><\/p>\n<form method=\"POST\" action=\"http:\/\/www.feedblitz.com\/f\/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect\">\n\u5b9a\u671f\u83b7\u5f97\u7ffb\u5899\u4fe1\u606f\uff1f<a href=\"http:\/\/www.feedblitz.com\/f\/?Sub=750556\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8bf7\u7535\u90ae\u8ba2\u9605\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3<\/a> <br \/><input name=\"EMAIL\" maxlength=\"64\" type=\"text\" size=\"25\" value=\"\"><br \/>\n<input name=\"FEEDID\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"750556\"><br \/>\n<input name=\"PUBLISHER\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"7485568\"><br \/>\n<input type=\"submit\" value=\"\u8ba2\u9605!\"><br \/>\n<\/form>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> \uff08\u4e2d\u592e\u793e\u53f0\u531729\u65e5\u96fb\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u51fa\u7210\u7684\u300c\u5f6d\u535a\u5168\u7403\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\uff08Bloomberg Global Poll\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d55\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u6050\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b30\u5e74\u524d\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u63da\u68c4\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4ee5\u4f86\u4fdd\u6301\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6210\u9577\u7387\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8170\u65ac\uff0c\u53ea\u5269\u4e0b\u4e0d\u5230\u4e00\u534a\u3002 \u5f6d\u535a26\u65e5\u91dd\u5c0d\u5168\u74031031\u540d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u3001\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8207\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u7b49\u8a02\u6236\u5b63\u5ea6\u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\uff0c59%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u9810\u4f30\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5e74\u5ea6\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d (GDP)\u7684\u6210\u9577\u57282016\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u6050\u4e0d\u52305%\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u5b63\u589e\u5e45\u70ba9.5%\u3002\u670912%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6050\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u53e6\u670947%\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f862-5\u5e74\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c07\u5448\u73fe\u653e\u7de9\u589e\u9577\u683c\u5c40\u3002 \u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f2008-09\u5e74\u5e2d\u6372\u5168\u7403\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u907d\u964d\uff0c\u5275\u4e0b\u81f3\u5c111979\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u6b50\u3001\u7f8e\u6b63\u529b\u6297\u4e8c\u5ea6\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u9760\u5411\u6b50\u7f8e\u51fa\u53e3\u7522\u54c1\u7dad\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96a8\u8457\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u80e1\u9326\u6fe4\u8207\u7e3d\u7406\u6eab\u5bb6\u5bf6\u660e\u5e74\u7a0d\u665a\u5c07\u4ea4\u68d2\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8655\u7406\u597d\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0b\u884c\u91cd\u4efb\u5c07\u843d\u5728\u4e2d\u5171\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002 \u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u591a\u862d\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\uff08Doraine Wealth Management\uff09\u57f7\u884c\u9577\u591a\u862d\uff08Charles Doraine\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\uff09\u82e5\u4e0d\u63a1\u8cfc\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\uff08\u4e2d\u570b\uff09\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u751f\u7522\u9019\u4e9b\u5546\u54c1\u3002\u300d\u6b64\u6b21\u8abf\u67e5\u7684\u8aa4\u5dee\u7bc4\u570d\u5728\u6b63\u8ca03.1%\u3002 \u5df4\u9eceMW Gestion\u6295\u8cc7\u9577\u585e\u52d2\uff08Jerome Selle\uff09\u4ee5\u4e2d\u570b\u5730\u7522\u6f5b\u85cf\u6ce1\u6cab\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u98c6\u9ad8\u53ca\u6b50\u7f8e\u64f4\u5f35\u75b2\u8edf\u70ba\u7531\uff0c\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bc3\u97ff\u8b66\u9418\u3002 \u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u77ed\u671f\u4f9d\u820a\u4fdd\u6301\u6b63\u9762\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u88ab\u554f\u5230\u672a\u4f8612\u500b\u6708\u80fd\u5920\u5275\u9020\u6700\u4f73\u5831\u916c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6642\uff0c\u670923%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u5c6c\u610f\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u50c5\u6b21\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u3002\u670930%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u770b\u597d\u7f8e\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u3002 \u5927\u9678\u4e0a\u6d77\u7d9c\u5408\u8b49\u5238\u6307\u6578\u4eca\u5e74\u4f86\u632b\u8dcc15%\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u7f8e\u80a1\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e500\u6307\u6578\u8dcc\u5e45\u70ba8.5%\uff0cMSCI\u4e16\u754c\u6307\u6578\u8dcc\u5e45\u905412.3%\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u81ea1979\u5e74\u9010\u6f38\u5411\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u9760\u650f\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5e74\u6210\u9577\u5e73\u5747\u4fdd\u6301\u572810%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u9032\u884c\u6539\u9769\u958b\u653e\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u8d85\u904e6\u5104\u4eba\u812b\u8ca7\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e5f\u8e8d\u5c45\u5168\u7403\u51fa\u53e3\u5927\u570b\uff0c\u4e26\u5f37\u5316\u4e86\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u3002 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