{"id":287874,"date":"2013-04-05T18:01:39","date_gmt":"2013-04-06T01:01:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/2013\/04\/%e7%99%bd%e8%a1%ac%e8%a1%ab-%e9%87%91%e6%ad%a3%e6%81%a9%e7%9a%84%e8%bd%ae%e7%9b%98%e8%b5%8c\/"},"modified":"2015-09-21T19:05:21","modified_gmt":"2015-09-22T02:05:21","slug":"%e7%99%bd%e8%a1%ac%e8%a1%ab-%e9%87%91%e6%ad%a3%e6%81%a9%e7%9a%84%e8%bd%ae%e7%9b%98%e8%b5%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/287874.html","title":{"rendered":"\u767d\u886c\u886b | \u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u7684\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><p>Korean\u00a0roulette<\/p>\n<p>\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u7684\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Kim\u00a0Jong\u00a0Un\u00a0has\u00a0raised\u00a0the\u00a0stakes;\u00a0it\u00a0is\u00a0time\u00a0to\u00a0get\u00a0tougher\u00a0with\u00a0the\u00a0nastiest\u00a0regime\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0planet<\/p>\n<p>\u65e2\u7136\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u5df2\u7ecf\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u8be5\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6700\u9f8c\u9f8a\u7684\u653f\u6743\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Apr\u00a06th\u00a02013\u00a0|From\u00a0the\u00a0print\u00a0edition<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u7684\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c \" src=\"http:\/\/img3.laibafile.cn\/p\/m\/138048937.jpg\" alt=\"\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u7684\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c \" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>EVEN\u00a0by\u00a0its\u00a0own\u00a0aggressive\u00a0standards,\u00a0North\u00a0Korea&#039;s\u00a0actions\u00a0over\u00a0the\u00a0past\u00a0couple\u00a0of\u00a0weeks\u00a0have\u00a0been\u00a0extraordinary.\u00a0Kim\u00a0Jong\u00a0Un,\u00a0the\u00a0country&#039;s\u00a0young\u00a0dictator,\u00a0has\u00a0threatened\u00a0the\u00a0United\u00a0States\u00a0with\u00a0nuclear\u00a0Armageddon,\u00a0promising\u00a0to\u00a0rain\u00a0missiles\u00a0on\u00a0mainland\u00a0America\u00a0and\u00a0military\u00a0bases\u00a0in\u00a0Hawaii\u00a0and\u00a0Guam;\u00a0declared\u00a0a\u00a0\u201cstate\u00a0of\u00a0war\u201d\u00a0with\u00a0South\u00a0Korea;\u00a0announced\u00a0that\u00a0he\u00a0would\u00a0restart\u00a0a\u00a0plutonium-producing\u00a0reactor\u00a0at\u00a0its\u00a0Yongbyon\u00a0nuclear\u00a0site,\u00a0while\u00a0enriching\u00a0uranium\u00a0to\u00a0build\u00a0more\u00a0nuclear\u00a0weapons;\u00a0and\u00a0barred\u00a0South\u00a0Korean\u00a0managers\u00a0from\u00a0entering\u00a0the\u00a0Kaesong\u00a0industrial\u00a0complex,\u00a0almost\u00a0the\u00a0only\u00a0instance\u00a0of\u00a0North-South\u00a0co-operation.\u00a0All\u00a0this\u00a0comes\u00a0after\u00a0the\u00a0regime\u00a0set\u00a0off\u00a0a\u00a0nuclear\u00a0test,\u00a0its\u00a0third,\u00a0in\u00a0February.\u00a0Tensions\u00a0are\u00a0the\u00a0worst\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0peninsula\u00a0since\u00a01994,\u00a0when\u00a0North\u00a0Korea\u00a0and\u00a0America\u00a0were\u00a0a\u00a0hair&#039;s\u00a0breadth\u00a0from\u00a0war.<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4fbf\u4ee5\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u90a3\u79cd\u597d\u6597\u7684\u4e60\u6027\u6765\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u5317\u97e9\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5468\u5185\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e5f\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u8be5\u56fd\u5e74\u5c11\u8f7b\u72c2\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u4ee5\u6838\u672b\u65e5\u6765\u5a01\u80c1\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53eb\u56a3\u8981\u5c06\u5bfc\u5f39\u503e\u6cfb\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u4ee5\u53ca\u590f\u5a01\u5937\u548c\u5173\u5c9b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u57fa\u5730\uff1b\u4ed6\u5ba3\u79f0\u5df2\u4e0e\u5357\u97e9\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u6218\u4e89\u72b6\u6001\u201d\uff1b\u4ed6\u4e00\u8fb9\u5ba3\u5e03\u91cd\u542f\u5b81\u8fb9\u6838\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u949a\u53cd\u5e94\u5806\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u8fdb\u884c\u94c0\u6d53\u7f29\u4ee5\u5236\u9020\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff1b\u4ed6\u8fd8\u7981\u6b62\u5357\u97e9\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u5458\u8fdb\u5165\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5317\u5357\u5408\u4f5c\u552f\u4e00\u6210\u679c\u7684\u5f00\u57ce\u5de5\u4e1a\u56ed\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u6709\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u653f\u6743\u4e8e\u4eca\u5e742\u6708\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e4b\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u8fd9\u79cd\u7d27\u5f20\u6c14\u6c1b\u662f\u671d\u9c9c\u534a\u5c9b\u81ea1994\u5e74\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u65f6\u5317\u97e9\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u7206\u53d1\u6218\u4e89\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0questions\u00a0are\u00a0what\u00a0to\u00a0make\u00a0of\u00a0all\u00a0this,\u00a0and\u00a0how\u00a0to\u00a0respond.\u00a0Neither\u00a0is\u00a0easy.\u00a0The\u00a0White\u00a0House\u00a0has\u00a0tried\u00a0to\u00a0play\u00a0down\u00a0the\u00a0aggression,\u00a0talking\u00a0of\u00a0a\u00a0\u201cdisconnect\u00a0between\u00a0rhetoric\u00a0and\u00a0action\u201d,\u00a0and\u00a0some\u00a0parts\u00a0are\u00a0pure\u00a0bluster.\u00a0The\u00a0nuclear\u00a0threat\u00a0against\u00a0mainland\u00a0America\u00a0is\u00a0patently\u00a0hollow:\u00a0it\u00a0will\u00a0be\u00a0years\u00a0before\u00a0the\u00a0North\u00a0has\u00a0the\u00a0technology\u00a0to\u00a0dispatch\u00a0nuclear-tipped\u00a0missiles.\u00a0North\u00a0Korea\u00a0has\u00a0yet\u00a0to\u00a0order\u00a0a\u00a0large-scale\u00a0mobilisation\u00a0of\u00a0its\u00a01.1m-strong\u00a0army.\u00a0Pyongyang,\u00a0the\u00a0capital,\u00a0does\u00a0not\u00a0seem\u00a0like\u00a0a\u00a0city\u00a0that\u00a0is\u00a0about\u00a0to\u00a0go\u00a0to\u00a0war\u00a0(see\u00a0article).<\/p>\n<p>\u6446\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u524d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53c8\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u53bb\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u54ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u7b54\u3002\u767d\u5bab\u5bf9\u5317\u97e9\u7684\u53eb\u56a3\u4e00\u76f4\u91c7\u53d6\u6de1\u5316\u5904\u7406\u7684\u539f\u5219\u3002\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\u00a0\uff0c\u767d\u5bab\u9664\u4e86\u79f0\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u201c\u8a00\u8f9e\u4e0e\u884c\u52a8\u8131\u8282\u201d\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u8868\u793a\u6709\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u8d64\u88f8\u88f8\u7684\u6050\u5413\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u7684\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5b9e\u8d28\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u5317\u97e9\u9700\u8981\u6570\u5e74\u624d\u80fd\u5177\u5907\u53d1\u5c04\u5e26\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9110\u591a\u4e07\u4eba\u7684\u519b\u961f\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8c03\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u9996\u90fd\u5e73\u58e4\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u4e5f\u4e0d\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u505a\u597d\u6218\u4e89\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Only\u00a0connect<\/p>\n<p>\u552f\u6709\u6c9f\u901a<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But\u00a0there\u00a0are\u00a0also\u00a0depressing\u00a0reasons\u00a0to\u00a0take\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim\u00a0all\u00a0too\u00a0seriously.\u00a0It\u00a0does\u00a0not\u00a0take\u00a0much\u00a0to\u00a0imagine\u00a0the\u00a0cycle\u00a0of\u00a0provocation\u00a0and\u00a0deterrence\u00a0getting\u00a0out\u00a0of\u00a0hand,\u00a0especially\u00a0if\u00a0South\u00a0Korea\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0United\u00a0States\u00a0misjudge\u00a0North\u00a0Korea&#039;s\u00a0actions\u2014or\u00a0vice\u00a0versa.\u00a0And\u00a0even\u00a0without\u00a0nuclear\u00a0missiles,\u00a0conflict\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0crowded\u00a0Korean\u00a0peninsula\u00a0would\u00a0be\u00a0savage.\u00a0Decrepit\u00a0North\u00a0Korea\u00a0would\u00a0certainly\u00a0be\u00a0outgunned\u00a0by\u00a0South\u00a0Korea\u00a0and\u00a0America.\u00a0But\u00a0nobody\u00a0should\u00a0doubt\u00a0the\u00a0cult-like\u00a0commitment\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0North&#039;s\u00a0armed\u00a0forces.\u00a0The\u00a0human\u00a0cost\u00a0of\u00a0war\u00a0would\u00a0be\u00a0huge:\u00a01.7m\u00a0men\u00a0serve\u00a0in\u00a0uniform\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0peninsula,\u00a0and\u00a0North\u00a0Korean\u00a0artillery\u00a0batteries\u00a0are\u00a0trained\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0megalopolis\u00a0of\u00a0Seoul.\u00a0American\u00a0generals\u00a0guess\u00a0that\u00a0a\u00a0conflict\u00a0could\u00a0kill\u00a0at\u00a0least\u00a01m,\u00a0including\u00a0thousands\u00a0of\u00a0Americans.\u00a0Oh,\u00a0and\u00a0it\u00a0would\u00a0also\u00a0be\u00a0curtains\u00a0for\u00a0Asia&#039;s\u00a0thriving\u00a0economy.<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u7528\u7406\u7531\u4e25\u8083\u8ba4\u771f\u5730\u5bf9\u5f85\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u3002\u4e0d\u96be\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u5357\u97e9\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5317\u97e9\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u505a\u51fa\u8bef\u5224\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5317\u97e9\u5bf9\u5357\u97e9\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u505a\u51fa\u8bef\u5224\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6311\u8845\u4e0e\u5a01\u6151\u6216\u8005\u5a01\u6151\u4e0e\u6311\u8845\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u5c31\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u534a\u5c9b\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u51b2\u7a81\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u91ce\u86ee\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u88c5\u5907\u9648\u65e7\u7684\u5317\u97e9\u80af\u5b9a\u6253\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u5357\u97e9\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5317\u97e9\u519b\u961f\u90a3\u79cd\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u90aa\u6559\u7684\u6218\u6597\u529b\u8868\u793a\u6000\u7591\u3002\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u6210\u672c\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\uff1a\u534a\u5c9b\u4e0a\u7684\u73b0\u5f79\u519b\u4eba\u8fbe170\u4e07\u4eba\u4e4b\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u5317\u97e9\u7684\u706b\u70ae\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee5\u9996\u5c14\u8fd9\u5ea7\u7279\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u9ad8\u5c42\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u81f3\u5c11\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u5305\u62ec\u6570\u5343\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u58eb\u5175\u5728\u5185\u7684100\u4e07\u519b\u4eba\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u7e41\u8363\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u707e\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Moreover,\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim\u00a0heads\u00a0a\u00a0regime\u00a0that\u00a0cares\u00a0nothing\u00a0for\u00a0its\u00a0own\u00a0brutalised\u00a0people.\u00a0Some\u00a0150,000-200,000\u00a0North\u00a0Koreans\u2014individuals\u00a0and\u00a0often\u00a0whole\u00a0families\u2014rot\u00a0as\u00a0political\u00a0prisoners\u00a0in\u00a0a\u00a0vast\u00a0gulag.\u00a0Farmers\u00a0are\u00a0herded\u00a0into\u00a0collectives\u00a0and\u00a0forced\u00a0into\u00a0gruelling\u00a0manual\u00a0labour.\u00a0Women\u00a0trying\u00a0to\u00a0make\u00a0a\u00a0living\u00a0by\u00a0smuggling\u00a0refugees\u00a0across\u00a0the\u00a0border\u00a0with\u00a0China\u00a0are\u00a0shot\u00a0if\u00a0they\u00a0do\u00a0not\u00a0know\u00a0the\u00a0right\u00a0people\u00a0to\u00a0bribe.<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u6240\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u653f\u6743\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u53d7\u8650\u5f85\u4e5f\u4e1d\u6beb\u4e0d\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u6743\u3002\u4e00\u8fb9\u662f\u5927\u7ea6\u6709150000-200000\u5317\u97e9\u4eba\u5728\u5fcd\u9965\u6328\u997f\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u662f\u5927\u6279\u653f\u6cbb\u72af\u88ab\u5173\u8fdb\u96c6\u4e2d\u8425\u3002\u519c\u6c11\u88ab\u5708\u7981\u5728\u5408\u4f5c\u793e\u4e2d\uff0c\u88ab\u8feb\u4ece\u4e8b\u975e\u4eba\u7684\u4f53\u529b\u52b3\u52a8\u3002\u5987\u5973\u9760\u7a7f\u8d8a\u8fb9\u5883\u628a\u96be\u6c11\u5077\u6e21\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u652f\u6491\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5979\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u53bb\u8d3f\u8d42\u5e94\u8be5\u8d3f\u8d42\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5979\u4eec\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u6253\u6b7b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In\u00a0some\u00a0ways\u00a0the\u00a0North\u00a0is\u00a0even\u00a0scarier\u00a0under\u00a0its\u00a0new\u00a0ruler\u00a0than\u00a0it\u00a0was\u00a0under\u00a0his\u00a0father,\u00a0who\u00a0died\u00a0in\u00a02011.\u00a0Early\u00a0hopes\u00a0that\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim\u00a0might\u00a0prove\u00a0a\u00a0youthful\u00a0agent\u00a0of\u00a0change\u00a0seem\u00a0entirely\u00a0dashed\u00a0by\u00a0his\u00a0nuclear\u00a0explosion\u00a0and\u00a0boundless\u00a0bombast.\u00a0He\u00a0is\u00a0thought\u00a0to\u00a0have\u00a0ordered\u00a0the\u00a0sinking\u00a0of\u00a0a\u00a0South\u00a0Korean\u00a0naval\u00a0corvette\u00a0in\u00a02010,\u00a0with\u00a0the\u00a0deaths\u00a0of\u00a046\u00a0crewmen,\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0shelling\u00a0of\u00a0a\u00a0South\u00a0Korean\u00a0island\u00a0later\u00a0that\u00a0year.\u00a0Whereas\u00a0Kim\u00a0Jong\u00a0Il\u00a0was\u00a0practised\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0calibrated\u00a0calculation\u00a0of\u00a0shaking\u00a0down\u00a0the\u00a0outside\u00a0world,\u00a0his\u00a0callow\u00a0son\u00a0has\u00a0escalated\u00a0tensions\u00a0wildly.\u00a0Nobody\u00a0knows\u00a0how\u00a0to\u00a0walk\u00a0him\u00a0back\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0brink.<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u5df2\u4e8e2011\u5e74\u6b7b\u53bb\u7684\u7236\u4eb2\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u5317\u97e9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u8981\u66f4\u53ef\u6015\u3002\u5728\u6838\u7206\u70b8\u548c\u5927\u653e\u53a5\u8bcd\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5148\u524d\u5bf9\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e74\u8f7b\u6539\u9769\u8005\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f7b\u5e95\u7834\u706d\u3002\u636e\u79f0\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u57282010\u5e74\u4e0b\u4ee4\u51fb\u6c89\u5357\u97e9\u6d77\u519b\u7684\u4e00\u8258\u5c0f\u578b\u519b\u8230\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5bfc\u81f446\u540d\u8239\u5458\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1b\u5f53\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u53c8\u4e0b\u4ee4\u5bf9\u5357\u97e9\u7684\u4e00\u5ea7\u5c9b\u5c7f\u8fdb\u884c\u70ae\u51fb\u3002\u91d1\u6b63\u65e5\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\u662f\u6839\u636e\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u5916\u754c\u5bf9\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u90a3\u4f4d\u7fbd\u7ffc\u672a\u4e30\u7684\u513f\u5b50\u603b\u662f\u7aed\u529b\u8c03\u9ad8\u8c03\u95e8\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u7d27\u5f20\u6c14\u6c1b\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u8ba9\u4ed6\u60ac\u5d16\u52d2\u9a6c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Doing\u00a0so\u00a0depends\u00a0partly\u00a0on\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim&#039;s\u00a0motives.\u00a0Perhaps\u00a0aggression\u00a0is\u00a0a\u00a0rite\u00a0of\u00a0passage\u00a0to\u00a0prove\u00a0his\u00a0leadership\u00a0credentials\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0country&#039;s\u00a0ancient\u00a0generals.\u00a0Perhaps\u00a0he\u00a0will\u00a0shrewdly\u00a0claim\u00a0he\u00a0has\u00a0seen\u00a0off\u00a0the\u00a0imperialist\u00a0threat\u00a0and\u00a0back\u00a0down.\u00a0Perhaps\u00a0he\u00a0gets\u00a0a\u00a0thrill\u00a0from\u00a0orchestrating\u00a0the\u00a0chaos\u2014as\u00a0if\u00a0he\u00a0were\u00a0playing\u00a0a\u00a0video\u00a0game.\u00a0Or,\u00a0most\u00a0worrying,\u00a0perhaps\u00a0he\u00a0is\u00a0out\u00a0of\u00a0his\u00a0depth\u00a0and\u00a0therefore\u00a0more\u00a0prone\u00a0to\u00a0miscalculation.<\/p>\n<p>\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u662f\u5426\u60ac\u5d16\u52d2\u9a6c\u90e8\u5206\u53d6\u51b3\u4e0e\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u5e72\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u707c\u707c\u903c\u4eba\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4f20\u9012\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e3a\u7684\u662f\u8bc1\u660e\u4ed6\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u90a3\u4e9b\u8001\u673d\u7684\u5c06\u519b\u4eec\u4ecd\u5177\u6709\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\uff1b\u4e5f\u8bb8\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u9002\u53ef\u800c\u6b62\u5730\u5ba3\u79f0\u5df2\u7ecf\u7c89\u788e\u4e86\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u505a\u51fa\u8ba9\u6b65\uff1b\u4e5f\u8bb8\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u4eb2\u81ea\u6307\u6325\u8fd9\u573a\u6df7\u4e71\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5982\u540c\u73a9\u7535\u5b50\u6e38\u620f\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u4f53\u9a8c\u5230\u4e86\u67d0\u79cd\u523a\u6fc0\uff1b\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u5168\u4e27\u5931\u7406\u667a\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4f1a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u505a\u51fa\u8bef\u5224\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Whenever\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim&#039;s\u00a0father\u00a0ratcheted\u00a0up\u00a0tensions,\u00a0at\u00a0least\u00a0the\u00a0pretence\u00a0held\u00a0that\u00a0a\u00a0bargain\u00a0was\u00a0to\u00a0be\u00a0had.\u00a0In\u00a0return\u00a0for\u00a0aid,\u00a0oil\u00a0or\u00a0respect,\u00a0North\u00a0Korea\u00a0would\u00a0agree\u00a0to\u00a0discussions\u00a0over\u00a0dismantling\u00a0its\u00a0nuclear-weapons\u00a0programme.\u00a0The\u00a0process\u00a0was\u00a0often\u00a0a\u00a0charade,\u00a0but\u00a0it\u00a0kept\u00a0the\u00a0North\u00a0engaged\u00a0and\u00a0it\u00a0probably\u00a0helped\u00a0slow\u00a0the\u00a0development\u00a0of\u00a0nuclear\u00a0weapons,\u00a0as\u00a0with\u00a0the\u00a0agreement\u00a0to\u00a0mothball\u00a0the\u00a0Yongbyon\u00a0reactor\u00a0in\u00a02007.\u00a0Now\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim\u00a0has\u00a0declared\u00a0that\u00a0his\u00a0nuclear\u00a0capability\u00a0is\u00a0non-negotiable.<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5f53\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u7684\u7236\u4eb2\u6311\u8d77\u7d27\u5f20\u4e4b\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u81f3\u5c11\u8fd8\u88c5\u51fa\u4e00\u4ed8\u51c6\u5907\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6837\u5b50\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6362\u6765\u63f4\u52a9\u3001\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u897f\u65b9\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u5c0a\u656c\uff0c\u5317\u97e9\u4f1a\u5728\u89e3\u9664\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u8ba1\u5212\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u540c\u610f\u8fdb\u884c\u8c08\u5224\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5e38\u5e38\u72b9\u5982\u731c\u8c1c\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u80fd\u628a\u5317\u97e9\u7559\u5728\u8c08\u5224\u684c\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5ef6\u7f13\u5176\u5f00\u53d1\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c2007\u5e74\u8fbe\u6210\u7684\u5173\u95ed\u5b81\u8fb9\u53cd\u5e94\u5806\u534f\u8bae\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u5374\u5ba3\u79f0\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6838\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u5bb9\u8ba8\u4ef7\u8fd8\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>No\u00a0prizes\u00a0for\u00a0backing\u00a0off<\/p>\n<p>\u7a77\u8ffd\u731b\u6253<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>What\u00a0should\u00a0the\u00a0West\u00a0do?\u00a0In\u00a0the\u00a0long\u00a0term,\u00a0the\u00a0best\u00a0way\u00a0to\u00a0destabilise\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim\u00a0is\u00a0from\u00a0within.\u00a0A\u00a0new\u00a0merchant\u00a0class\u00a0is\u00a0emerging\u2014the\u00a0only\u00a0prospering\u00a0bit\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0economy.\u00a0The\u00a0world\u00a0must\u00a0redouble\u00a0its\u00a0efforts\u00a0to\u00a0engage\u00a0with\u00a0these\u00a0and\u00a0other\u00a0possible\u00a0agents\u00a0of\u00a0change.\u00a0This\u00a0includes\u00a0teaching\u00a0more\u00a0mid-ranking\u00a0officials\u00a0how\u00a0societies\u00a0work\u00a0when\u00a0they\u00a0are\u00a0organised\u00a0around\u00a0market\u00a0economies\u00a0and\u00a0underpinned\u00a0by\u00a0laws;\u00a0and\u00a0funding\u00a0defector\u00a0radio\u00a0stations\u00a0beaming\u00a0news\u00a0back\u00a0into\u00a0the\u00a0North.<\/p>\n<p>\u897f\u65b9\u5e94\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u529e\uff1f\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u52a8\u6447\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u653f\u6743\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4ece\u5185\u90e8\u7740\u624b\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5904\u4e8e\u840c\u82bd\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5546\u4eba\u9636\u5c42\u6b63\u5728\u4ece\u5317\u97e9\u5185\u90e8\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u4eae\u70b9\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u500d\u52aa\u529b\u6765\u6276\u6301\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u8981\u6276\u6301\u5176\u4ed6\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u3002\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e9b\u505a\u6cd5\uff1a\u5f53\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4e2d\u5c42\u5b98\u5458\u56e0\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e2\u4f53\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u80fd\u591f\u5f97\u5230\u6cd5\u5f8b\u652f\u6301\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5411\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f20\u6388\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff1b\u7ed9\u53db\u9003\u8005\u7684\u5e7f\u64ad\u7535\u53f0\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\u4f20\u56de\u5317\u97e9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That,\u00a0though,\u00a0is\u00a0for\u00a0the\u00a0long\u00a0term.\u00a0The\u00a0imperative\u00a0now\u00a0is\u00a0to\u00a0face\u00a0down\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim.\u00a0After\u00a0all,\u00a0he\u00a0has\u00a0ruled\u00a0out\u00a0the\u00a0only\u00a0promise\u00a0worth\u00a0having\u00a0(suspending\u00a0his\u00a0nuclear\u00a0programme\u00a0again).\u00a0North\u00a0Korea\u2014and\u00a0other\u00a0rogue\u00a0regimes\u00a0and\u00a0would-be\u00a0nuclear\u00a0proliferators,\u00a0such\u00a0as\u00a0Iran\u2014need\u00a0to\u00a0know\u00a0that\u00a0actions\u00a0have\u00a0consequences.\u00a0That\u00a0is\u00a0why\u00a0President\u00a0Park\u00a0Geun-hye\u00a0of\u00a0South\u00a0Korea,\u00a0in\u00a0turn,\u00a0was\u00a0right\u00a0to\u00a0make\u00a0it\u00a0clear\u00a0that\u00a0sneak\u00a0attacks\u00a0will\u00a0be\u00a0met\u00a0with\u00a0a\u00a0much\u00a0firmer\u00a0response\u00a0than\u00a0in\u00a02010.\u00a0America\u00a0is\u00a0right\u00a0to\u00a0move\u00a0missile\u00a0defences\u00a0to\u00a0Guam.\u00a0When\u00a0it\u00a0sent\u00a0two\u00a0nuclear-capable\u00a0B-2\u00a0bombers\u00a0to\u00a0fly\u00a0over\u00a0the\u00a0peninsula\u00a0it\u00a0was\u00a0a\u00a0warning\u00a0not\u00a0only\u00a0to\u00a0North\u00a0Korea,\u00a0but\u00a0also\u00a0a\u00a0gesture\u00a0of\u00a0support\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0South.\u00a0If\u00a0Ms\u00a0Park\u00a0doubts\u00a0American\u00a0backing,\u00a0she\u00a0will\u00a0be\u00a0tempted\u00a0to\u00a0seek\u00a0nuclear\u00a0weapons\u00a0herself.<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u505a\u6cd5\u53ea\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u7d27\u8feb\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u8ba9\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u989c\u9762\u626b\u5730\u3002\u4ed6\u6bd5\u7adf\u5df2\u7ecf\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u552f\u4e00\u8fd8\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff08\u518d\u6b21\u53eb\u505c\u548c\u8ba1\u5212\uff09\u3002\u5317\u97e9\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u6d41\u6c13\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5305\u62ec\u50cf\u4f0a\u6717\u90a3\u6837\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u6838\u6269\u6563\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u5185\u2014\u2014\u9700\u8981\u660e\u767d\uff1a\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u662f\u6709\u4ee3\u4ef7\u7684\u3002\u5357\u97e9\u603b\u7edf\u6734\u69ff\u60e0\u66fe\u660e\u786e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u5077\u88ad\u90fd\u5fc5\u5c06\u906d\u5230\u6bd42010\u5e74\u90a3\u6b21\u53cd\u5e94\u66f4\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\u3002\u5979\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u6b63\u5728\u4e8e\u6b64\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u628a\u5bfc\u5f39\u9632\u5fa1\u7cfb\u7edf\u8c03\u9063\u5230\u5173\u5c9b\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u6d3e\u9063\u4e24\u67b6\u80fd\u591f\u643a\u5e26\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684B-2\u9690\u5f62\u8f70\u70b8\u673a\u98de\u8dc3\u671d\u9c9c\u534a\u5c9b\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u7ed9\u5317\u97e9\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5bf9\u5357\u97e9\u8868\u793a\u652f\u6301\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u59ff\u6001\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6734\u69ff\u60e0\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u652f\u6301\u6709\u6240\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5979\u5fc5\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7531\u81ea\u5df1\u5f00\u53d1\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u6240\u6253\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Now\u00a0more\u00a0than\u00a0ever,\u00a0America\u00a0needs\u00a0to\u00a0cajole\u00a0China\u00a0to\u00a0press\u00a0for\u00a0change\u00a0in\u00a0its\u00a0satellite.\u00a0Apart\u00a0from\u00a0humanitarian\u00a0aid\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0North&#039;s\u00a0stunted\u00a0people,\u00a0all\u00a0other\u00a0commercial\u00a0favours\u00a0towards\u00a0the\u00a0regime\u00a0should\u00a0be\u00a0stopped.\u00a0Sick\u00a0of\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim\u00a0and\u00a0his\u00a0family\u00a0racket,\u00a0China\u00a0signed\u00a0up\u00a0to\u00a0fresh\u00a0UN\u00a0financial\u00a0sanctions\u00a0against\u00a0North\u00a0Korea\u00a0after\u00a0the\u00a0latest\u00a0nuclear\u00a0test.\u00a0China\u00a0has\u00a0the\u00a0capacity\u00a0to\u00a0choke\u00a0the\u00a0most\u00a0iniquitous\u00a0sources\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0criminal\u00a0regime&#039;s\u00a0cash.\u00a0Yet\u00a0its\u00a0commitment\u00a0to\u00a0enforcing\u00a0the\u00a0sanctions\u00a0seems\u00a0half-hearted\u00a0and\u00a0it\u00a0appears\u00a0to\u00a0have\u00a0insisted\u00a0that\u00a0Shanghai\u00a0accounts\u00a0in\u00a0two\u00a0of\u00a0its\u00a0biggest\u00a0banks,\u00a0holding\u00a0hundreds\u00a0of\u00a0millions\u00a0of\u00a0dollars\u00a0on\u00a0behalf\u00a0of\u00a0Mr\u00a0Kim\u00a0and\u00a0his\u00a0cronies,\u00a0be\u00a0excluded\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0sanctions.\u00a0Attempts\u00a0at\u00a0changing\u00a0North\u00a0Korean\u00a0behaviour\u00a0have\u00a0so\u00a0far\u00a0patently\u00a0failed.\u00a0But\u00a0then,\u00a0as\u00a0China\u00a0shows,\u00a0not\u00a0everything\u00a0has\u00a0yet\u00a0been\u00a0tried.<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u8ba8\u597d\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4e3a\u7684\u662f\u8ba9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5979\u7684\u536b\u661f\u56fd\u65bd\u52a0\u538b\u529b\u4ee5\u4fc3\u6210\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u5317\u97e9\u8425\u517b\u4e0d\u826f\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u63d0\u4f9b\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u63f4\u52a9\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u540c\u8be5\u653f\u6743\u6709\u5546\u4e1a\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u5e94\u5f53\u88ab\u53eb\u505c\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u53ca\u5176\u5bb6\u65cf\u82b1\u5929\u9152\u5730\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u611f\u5230\u538c\u70e6\uff0c\u5728\u5317\u97e9\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c31\u540c\u610f\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u91d1\u878d\u5236\u88c1\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5207\u65ad\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7f6a\u6076\u653f\u6743\u7528\u6700\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u83b7\u5f97\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5316\u5236\u88c1\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7f3a\u5c11\u8bda\u610f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u575a\u6301\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u8be5\u628a\u5317\u97e9\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77\u5f00\u8bbe\u7684\u8d26\u6237\u4ece\u5236\u88c1\u540d\u5355\u4e2d\u5254\u9664\u51fa\u53bb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d26\u6237\u4ee3\u8868\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u53ca\u5176\u9ad8\u5b98\u7b49\u4eba\u6301\u6709\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u5317\u97e9\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f7b\u5e95\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u6240\u8868\u660e\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5e94\u5f53\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e00\u4e0b\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u6765\u6e90\u300aECO\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 &#8212;&#8211;\u767d\u886c\u886b<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><small>\u672c\u6587\u7531\u81ea\u52a8\u805a\u5408\u7a0b\u5e8f\u53d6\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5185\u5bb9\u548c\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3\u7acb\u573a<\/small><\/p>\n<p>Loading&#8230;<\/p>\n<form method=\"POST\" action=\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.us4.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=17daa75df533f6c6ff72e51ab&amp;id=b4fd4ae247\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/mstlf\" target=\"_blank\" 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