\u4e00\u6218\u524d\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u610f\u5927\u5229\u519c\u5987\u5bf9\u5979\u513f\u5b50\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5feb\u9003\uff0c\u7956\u56fd\u6765\u4e86\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u6536\u5f55\u5728\u827e\u745e\u514b\u00b7\u970d\u5e03\u65af\u9c8d\u59c6\u7684\u300a\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u5e74\u4ee3\u300b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u516c\u6295\uff0c\u300a\u65b0\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u8d76\u70ed\u95f9\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u53ebEnd of nations\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u662fDebora Mackenzie\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u7ffb\u8bd1\u4e00\u4e0b\u8981\u70b9\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n
193\u56fd\u5bb6<\/p>\n
\u8bd5\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u5f20\u6ca1\u6709\u8272\u5757\u533a\u5206\u7684\u5730\u56fe\uff0c\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e0b\u6211\u4eec\u5e73\u5e38\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u2014\u2014\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u65c5\u884c\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u3001\u7ef4\u62a4\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u4e0d\u8981\u7528\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u8bd5\u7740\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e0b\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u4f60\u6709\u6743\u81f3\u5c11\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u7c4d\u4e5f\u6709\u6743\u6539\u53d8\u56fd\u7c4d\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u7c4d\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u7684\u5c0f\u8272\u5757\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u62e5\u6709\u4e3b\u6743\u3002\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6709193\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u72ec\u7acb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5230\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u5723\u6218\u5206\u5b50\u3002\u4ece\u52a0\u6c99\u51b2\u7a81\u5230\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u7684\u5934\u6761\u65b0\u95fb\u90fd\u591a\u5c11\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e3b\u5f20\u6709\u5173\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u6599\u7406\u6211\u4eec\u65e5\u5e38\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u7528\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53bb\u5904\u7406\u98df\u54c1\u4f9b\u5e94\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u4ece\u5c0f\u4e00\u70b9\u513f\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u548c\u533a\u57df\u81ea\u6cbb\u80fd\u6bd4\u4e00\u56fd\u4e4b\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u670d\u52a1\u4eba\u6c11\u3002<\/p>\n
150\u4eba<\/p>\n
\u572818\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u201c\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff0c\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u7684John Breuilly\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u8fb9\u754c\u7ebf\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u7ba1\u4f60\u8981\u62a4\u7167\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6709\u79cd\u65cf\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u5b9a\u4e49\u4f60\u6240\u5c45\u7559\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b9e\u4f53\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ee5\u5bb6\u5ead\u65b9\u5f0f\u6f2b\u6e38\uff0c\u7ee7\u800c\u805a\u96c6\u4e3a\u91c7\u96c6\u548c\u72e9\u730e\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u7fa4\uff0c\u5927\u7ea61\u4e07\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u5f62\u6210\u6751\u843d\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u534f\u4f5c\u83b7\u53d6\u98df\u7269\u5e76\u4fdd\u62a4\u81ea\u8eab\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u9093\u5df4\uff08Robin Dunbar\uff09\u7684\u8003\u53e4\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8bf4\u53e4\u65f6\u5019\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u822c\u4e0e\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc7150\u4eba\u4fdd\u6301\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u73b0\u5728FACEBOOK\u4e0a\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u822c\u7ef4\u6301\u7684\u201c\u670b\u53cb\u201d\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u6253\u4ed7\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u4f1a\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u591a\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5eb7\u6d85\u8fea\u514b\u5927\u5b66\u7684Peter Turchin\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c0f\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\uff0c10%\u523060%\u7684\u7537\u6027\u516c\u6c11\u6b7b\u4ea1\u90fd\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u6709\u5173\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5b58\u6d3b\u51e0\u7387\u3002\u53e4\u4ee3\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6b27\u4e9a\u5e1d\u56fd\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u968f\u6218\u4e8b\u6765\u4e34\u800c\u6210\u957f\u58ee\u5927\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u4f1a\u88ab\u654c\u65b9\u5438\u6536\uff0c\u83b7\u80dc\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u7586\u57df\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c31\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n
8\u4e2a\u5c42\u7ea7<\/p>\n
\u9093\u5df4\u6559\u6388\u6240\u8bf4\u7684150\u4eba\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e5f\u88ab\u9010\u6e10\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u5c42\u7ea7\u3002\u51e0\u4e2a\u6751\u5b50\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9996\u9886\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u8054\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u51e0\u4e2a\u9996\u9886\u7684\u90a6\u843d\u53c8\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u9996\u9886\u4e0b\u805a\u5408\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8054\u76df\u4e0d\u65ad\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5c42\u7ea7\uff0c\u5728Peter Turchin\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u4e00\u7ea7\u7684\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u548c\u6700\u9ad8\u4e00\u7ea7\u7684\u9886\u8896\uff0c\u9694\u7740\u4e2d\u95f4\u5404\u79cd\u5c42\u7ea7\u76846\u4e2a\u9996\u9886\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u54b1\u81f3\u5c11\u67098\u4e2a\u5c42\u7ea7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8054\u76df\u7ee7\u7eed\u6269\u5927\u5e76\u6709\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u4ed8\u5c42\u7ea7\u591a\u7684\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u5bf9\u624b\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7528\u5c42\u7ea7\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6784\u5efa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u590d\u6742\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5c42\u7ea7\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u6253\u4ed7\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u517b\u6d3b\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5c31\u8981\u6709\u704c\u6e89\u6280\u672f\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3001\u7cae\u98df\u50a8\u85cf\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u8fd8\u8981\u6709\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u3002\u57ce\u90a6\u3001\u738b\u56fd\u3001\u5e1d\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73a9\u610f\u63a5\u8e35\u800c\u81f3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73a9\u610f\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6nation states\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u6253\u8d25\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u53ef\u4ee5\u81e3\u670d\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e1d\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5c45\u6c11\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u56fd\u6c11\u8eab\u4efd\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u83b1\u6bd4\u9521\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6Andreas Osiander\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u4f53\u6240\u9700\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6587\u660e\u540c\u6837\u60a0\u4e45\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u672a\u5fc5\u9760\u8c31\u3002<\/p>\n
50\u4e07\u519b\u961f\u548c2000\u6cbb\u5b89\u5175<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u519c\u8015\u793e\u4f1a\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\u653f\u5e9c\u7ba1\u7406\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u5341\u6709\u516b\u4e5d\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u519c\u6c11\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u79cd\u5730\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7ba1\u7406\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u70b9\u7a0e\uff0c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6cbb\u5b89\uff0c\u6709\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7ef4\u62a4\u8fb9\u754c\u5b89\u5168\u300217\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u56fd\u738b\u8def\u6613\u5341\u56db\u670950\u4e07\u7684\u519b\u961f\u8ddf\u5916\u56fd\u4eba\u4f5c\u6218\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u53ea\u67092000\u4e2a\u6cbb\u5b89\u5175\u300218\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u8377\u5170\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u300219\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5230\u8fbe\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e1c\u6b27\u79fb\u6c11\u90fd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6765\u81ea\u54ea\u4e2a\u6751\u5b50\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u54ea\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cJohn Breuilly\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u201c\u5782\u76f4\u5730\u201d\u786e\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u8c01\u7ed9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b9a\u89c4\u77e9\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u670d\u4ece\u8c01\u3002\u5728\u672c\u5730\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f88\u5c11\u201c\u5e73\u9762\u201d\u5730\u548c\u4ed6\u4eba\u53d1\u751f\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u522b\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u4eba\u5f52\u56fd\u738b\u7ba1\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u8001\u6b7b\u4e0d\u76f8\u5f80\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f53\u5236\u548c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u8001\u5e1d\u56fd\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8272\u5757\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u56fd\u6c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u7531\u51fa\u5165\u90a3\u4e9b\u53f8\u6cd5\u7ba1\u8f96\u533a\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u7ba1\u7406\u677e\u6563\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u524d\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u529f\u80fd\u2014\u2014\u79cd\u7cae\u98df\u3001\u6253\u4ed7\u3001\u6536\u7a0e\u3001\u7ef4\u6301\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u7f57\u9a6c\u5e1d\u56fd\u867d\u7136\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5168\u4f53\u81e3\u6c11\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5f88\u5c0f\u3002\u4e2d\u4e16\u7eaa\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4efb\u52a1\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5174\u4fee\u6c34\u5229\u5de5\u7a0b\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u673a\u6784\u5f00\u59cb\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u5206\u6563\u7684\u9886\u5730\u4e3b\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6743\u529b\u8ba9\u6e21\u7ed9\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\u7684\u541b\u4e3b\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n
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1648\u5e74\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u5a01\u65af\u7279\u4f10\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u7ea6\u7ed3\u675f\u591a\u5e74\u6218\u4e71\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u5f53\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u738b\u56fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8fc8\u5411\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u201c\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u5c31\u840c\u82bd\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u9645international\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u8981\u7b49132\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\u624d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n
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