{"id":546761,"date":"2016-12-15T22:36:47","date_gmt":"2016-12-16T06:36:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/?p=546761"},"modified":"2016-12-15T22:23:34","modified_gmt":"2016-12-16T06:23:34","slug":"%e6%94%bf%e8%a7%81%ef%bd%9c%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e7%8b%ac%e8%a3%81%e8%80%85%e4%b9%9f%e8%a6%81%e6%90%9e%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/546761.html","title":{"rendered":"\u653f\u89c1\uff5c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4e5f\u8981\u641e\u9009\u4e3e\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote style=\"width:68%;\"><p>\u76f8\u5173\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/2016\/11\/%e3%80%90%e7%ab%8b%e6%ad%a4%e5%ad%98%e7%85%a7%e3%80%91%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%e8%a6%81%e6%98%af%e8%bf%99%e6%a0%b7%e5%a4%9a%e5%a5%bd\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u3010\u7acb\u6b64\u5b58\u7167\u3011\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u8981\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u591a\u597d<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2016\/12\/\u72ec\u88c1\u8005.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-546762\" src=\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2016\/12\/\u72ec\u88c1\u8005.jpeg\" alt=\"%e7%8b%ac%e8%a3%81%e8%80%85\" width=\"550\" height=\"316\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2016\/12\/\u72ec\u88c1\u8005.jpeg 566w, https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2016\/12\/\u72ec\u88c1\u8005-300x172.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>\u6458\u8981<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u5141\u8bb8\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff1f\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u80fd\u4ece\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u4ec0\u4e48\u597d\u5904\uff1f\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u4fe1\u4efb\u5a01\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\uff1f<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong><em>\u738b\u4e5f \/ \u653f\u89c1\u89c2\u5bdf\u5458<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728 2012 \u5e74\u4e0a\u6620\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u5927\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u843d\u96be\u8bb0\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u8428\u6c99\u00b7\u62dc\u4f26\u00b7\u79d1\u6069\u9970\u6f14\u7684\u963f\u62c9\u4e01\u4e00\u89d2\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5fc3\u76ee\u4e2d\u5bf9\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\uff1a\u9a84\u5962\u6deb\u9038\uff0c\u8086\u610f\u5984\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u8d5b\u8dd1\u4e2d\u4f1a\u51b7\u4e0d\u4e01\u638f\u51fa\u624b\u67aa\uff0c\u628a\u5176\u4ed6\u53c2\u8d5b\u9009\u624b\u4e00\u4e00\u51fb\u6bd9\uff0c\u8ddf\u9996\u5e2d\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e00\u8a00\u4e0d\u5408\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u628a\u4ed6\u62d6\u51fa\u53bb\u5904\u51b3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u963f\u62c9\u4e01\u8fd9\u6837\u62e5\u6709\u65e0\u9650\u6743\u529b\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u5e76\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u5f00\u59cb\u5411\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u6240\u79f0\u7684 \u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\uff08Competitive Authoritarianism\uff09\u201d \u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6c\u578b\uff1a\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u88ab\u5141\u8bb8\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u6709\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u4e3e\u53d6\u5f97\u6743\u529b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u81ea\u5df1\u624d\u662f\u6700\u540e\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002\u6709\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u5c3c\u52a0\u62c9\u74dc\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005 Anastasio Somoza DeBayle \u66fe\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u4e4b\u540e\u544a\u8bc9\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u9886\u8896\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u6b21\u662f\u4f60\u8d62\u4e86\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u6211\u8d62\u4e86\u8ba1\u7968\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u8001\u53f8\u673a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u7ffb\u8f66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u641e\u51fa\u8fc7 \u201c\u667a\u5229\u5947\u8ff9\u201d \u7684\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u5c06\u519b\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u4e00\u4f17\u540c\u884c\u53ef\u8c13\u9ad8\u5230\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u54ea\u91cc\u53bb\u4e86\uff1b\u53ef\u60dc 1988 \u5e74\u4e00\u4e0d\u7559\u795e\uff0c\u5728\u516c\u6295\u4e2d\u5f97\u7968\u6ca1\u6709\u8fc7\u534a\uff0c\u53ea\u5f97\u4e56\u4e56\u9000\u4f4d\u8ba9\u8d24\uff0c\u56de\u5bb6\u517b\u8001\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65e2\u7136\u6709\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u5c06\u519b\u7684\u524d\u8f66\u4e4b\u9274\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4eec\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd8\u613f\u610f\u5192\u7740\u653f\u6743\u88ab\u98a0\u8986\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5411 \u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u201d \u9760\u62e2\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\u9009\u4e3e\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd \u201c\u7ef4\u7a33\u201d \u624b\u6bb5<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\n\u5728 2011 \u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b63\u520a\u300b\uff08Quarterly Journal of Economics\uff09\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6 James Fearon \u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u9009\u4e3e\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u548c\u6c11\u4f17\u53cc\u65b9\u63d0\u4f9b\u5173\u4e8e\u73b0\u72b6\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u8fd8\u662f\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u597d\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5e76\u4e0d\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4ece\u6c11\u4f17\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u53ea\u80fd\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u798f\u5229\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u63a8\u65ad\u5728\u4f4d\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u662f\u5426\u5c3d\u804c\u3002\u800c\u5373\u4f7f\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u641e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u518d\u5f3a\uff0c\u518d\u5927\u516c\u65e0\u79c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u6ee1\u8db3\u6240\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u603b\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u6709\u6fc0\u52b1\u63ed\u7aff\u800c\u8d77\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u52a8\u8361\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u4e00\u65e6\u9009\u4e3e\u4e3e\u884c\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u4e2a\u4f53\u798f\u5229\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u5c31\u88ab\u52a0\u603b\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u5171\u4fe1\u53f7\u2014\u2014\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u7684\u5f97\u7968\u4efd\u989d\uff1b\u8fd9\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5168\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u73b0\u72b6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6c11\u4f17\u786e\u5b9e\u5bf9\u73b0\u653f\u6743\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9769\u547d\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7206\u53d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4f17\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u6709\u6548\u5730\u514b\u670d\u4e86 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\u6559\u6388\u548c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7684 Sonin \u6559\u6388\u4e3a \u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u201d 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Gehlbach \u6559\u6388\uff0c\u8036\u9c81\u7684 Svolik \u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Sonin \u6559\u6388\u5bf9\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u4e2d\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\u68b3\u7406\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3e\u884c\u9009\u4e3e\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u52a0\u603b\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u5a01\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6536\u96c6\u6c11\u4f17\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u65ad\u53c8\u628a\u6211\u4eec\u5e26\u56de\u5230\u4e86 Wintrobe \u7ecf\u5178\u7684 \u201c\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u6096\u8bba\u201d \u2014\u2014\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u592a\u5f31\uff0c\u968f\u65f6\u6709\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e0b\u53f0\u7684\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u592a\u5f3a\uff0c\u53c8\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba9\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5371\u9669\u5206\u5b50\u9732\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5f53\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u50cf\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u8fd9\u6837\u548c\u5e73\u8f6c\u79fb\u4e86\u6743\u529b\u7684\uff0c\u540e\u534a\u751f\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u98a0\u6c9b\u6d41\u79bb\u4e2d\u5ea6\u8fc7\u3002\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u665a\u5e74\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u6cbb\u75c5\u7684\u76ae\u5c06\u519b\uff0c\u5728\u770b\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\uff0c\u5378\u4efb\u540e\u8fc7\u7740\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5185\u5fc3\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6cdb\u8d77\u4e00\u4e1d\u7fa1\u6155\u4e4b\u60c5\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u7279\u522b\u611f\u8c22\u7f57\u5146\u5929\u535a\u58eb\u5728\u672c\u6587\u5199\u4f5c\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u534f\u52a9\uff09<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\n<small><span style=\"color: #808080;\">Egorov, G., &amp; Sonin, K. (2014). Incumbency advantage in non-democracies (No. w20519). National Bureau of Economic Research.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #808080;\">Fearon, J. D. (2011). Self-enforcing democracy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(4), 1661-1708.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #808080;\">Gehlbach, S., Sonin, K., &amp; Svolik, M. (2015). Formal Models of Nondemocratic Politics. Annual Review of Political Science, forthcoming.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #808080;\">Luo Z., &amp; Rozenas, A. (2016). Strategies of Election Rigging: Trade-offs, Determinants, and Consequences, working paper.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #808080;\">Tucker, J. A. (2007). Enough! Electoral fraud, collective action problems, and post-communist colored revolutions. Perspectives on Politics, 5(03), 535-551.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #808080;\">Wintrobe, R. (1990). The tinpot and the totalitarian: An economic theory of dictatorship. American Political Science Review, 84(03), 849-872.<\/span><\/small><\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u5b57\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u90dd\u5c0f\u4e66<br \/>\n\u5fae\u4fe1\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u65b9\u7136<br \/>\n\u56fe\u7247\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u6797\u4ea6\u7136<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u81ea\u5df1\u624d\u662f\u6700\u540e\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002\u6709\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u5c3c\u52a0\u62c9\u74dc\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005 Anastasio Somoza DeBayle \u66fe\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u4e4b\u540e\u544a\u8bc9\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u9886\u8896\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u6b21\u662f\u4f60\u8d62\u4e86\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u6211\u8d62\u4e86\u8ba1\u7968\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u8001\u53f8\u673a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u7ffb\u8f66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u641e\u51fa\u8fc7 \u201c\u667a\u5229\u5947\u8ff9\u201d \u7684\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u5c06\u519b\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u4e00\u4f17\u540c\u884c\u53ef\u8c13\u9ad8\u5230\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u54ea\u91cc\u53bb\u4e86\uff1b\u53ef\u60dc 1988 \u5e74\u4e00\u4e0d\u7559\u795e\uff0c\u5728\u516c\u6295\u4e2d\u5f97\u7968\u6ca1\u6709\u8fc7\u534a\uff0c\u53ea\u5f97\u4e56\u4e56\u9000\u4f4d\u8ba9\u8d24\uff0c\u56de\u5bb6\u517b\u8001\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":980,"featured_media":546762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ampforwp-amp-on-off":"","home_featured":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[18271,18269],"tags":[9503,9553,13099,22671,25542],"class_list":["post-546761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-level-2","category-recommend-article","tag-9503","tag-9553","tag-13099","tag-22671","tag-25542","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/980"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=546761"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546761\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/546762"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=546761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=546761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=546761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}