{"id":585047,"date":"2018-05-19T18:19:48","date_gmt":"2018-05-20T01:19:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/?p=585047"},"modified":"2018-05-19T18:49:49","modified_gmt":"2018-05-20T01:49:49","slug":"%e5%9b%9e%e5%bd%a2%e9%92%88paperclip-%e5%90%b4%e6%9d%be%e7%a3%8a%ef%bc%9a%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e5%9c%b0%e6%b6%88%e7%81%ad%e6%95%8f%e6%84%9f%e5%86%85%e5%ae%b9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/585047.html","title":{"rendered":"\u56de\u5f62\u9488PaperClip | \u5434\u677e\u78ca\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u6d88\u706d\u654f\u611f\u5185\u5bb9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"[\u56de\u5f62\u9488PaperClip]\u5982\u4f55\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u6d88\u706d\u654f\u611f\u5185\u5bb9\uff1f \u539f\u521b\uff1a\u5434\u677e\u78ca\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/URjXiLEfFdo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; 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wp-image-585048\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2018\/05\/Screen-Shot-2018-05-19-at-9.14.25-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"563\" height=\"318\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2018\/05\/Screen-Shot-2018-05-19-at-9.14.25-PM.png 563w, https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2018\/05\/Screen-Shot-2018-05-19-at-9.14.25-PM-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 563px) 100vw, 563px\" 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\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\uff08Thomas Bayes\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u5df2\u77e5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u8ba1\u7b97\u672a\u77e5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u201c\u91d1\u6b63\u7537\u673a\u573a\u9047\u523a\u201d\u4e3e\u4f8b\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u62bd\u53d6\u5341\u4e07\u6761\u5305\u542b\u201c\u673a\u573a\u201d\u7684\u6587\u672c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e03\u4e07\u6761\u4e3a\u6b63\u5e38\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4e09\u4e07\u6761\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u6e05\u9664\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u6b63\u5e38\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u6982\u7387 P(g)=70%\uff0c\u654f\u611f\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u6982\u7387 P(b)=30%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u6587\u672c\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u8bcd\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8bcd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u201c\u9047\u523a\u201d\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u4e03\u4e07\u6761\u6b63\u5e38\u5185\u5bb9\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e03\u5341\u6761\u201c\u9047\u523a\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u51fa\u73b0\u6982\u7387\u6982\u7387 P(W|g)\u4e3a 0.1%\uff1b\u800c\u4e09\u4e07\u6761\u654f\u611f\u5185\u5bb9\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u767e\u6761\u201c\u9047\u523a\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u51fa\u73b0\u6982\u7387 P(W|b) \u4e3a 1%\u3002\u201c\u9047\u523a\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u603b\u6982\u7387 P(W) \u4e3a 0.37\uff05\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-585049\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2018\/05\/Screen-Shot-2018-05-19-at-9.16.54-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"565\" height=\"318\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2018\/05\/Screen-Shot-2018-05-19-at-9.16.54-PM.png 565w, https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2018\/05\/Screen-Shot-2018-05-19-at-9.16.54-PM-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 565px) 100vw, 565px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e00\u6761\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u673a\u573a\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u91cc\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u201c\u9047\u523a\u201d\uff0c\u8be5\u5185\u5bb9\u662f\u654f\u611f\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u6982\u7387 P(b|W) \u662f\u591a\u5927\u5462\uff1f\u5c06\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5e26\u5165\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u51fa\u6982\u7387\u4e3a P(b|W) = P(W|b)P(b) \/ P(W) = 81.1\uff05\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u6b64\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8bcd\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u8be5\u6587\u672c\u4e3a\u654f\u611f\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u518d\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u8bbe\u5b9a\u9608\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u201c\u91d1\u5927\u80d6\u5728\u673a\u573a\u9047\u523a\u201d\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u300c\u91d1\u5927\u80d6\u300d\u3001\u300c\u673a\u573a\u300d\u548c\u300c\u9047\u523a\u300d\u4e09\u4e2a\u8bcd\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u662f\u654f\u611f\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 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