{"id":704537,"date":"2024-01-26T00:57:38","date_gmt":"2024-01-26T08:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/?p=704537"},"modified":"2024-02-03T06:38:29","modified_gmt":"2024-02-03T14:38:29","slug":"%e3%80%90cdt%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%e6%b1%87%e3%80%91%e5%af%b9%e4%bb%98%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af%e6%88%98%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%b0%e6%b9%be%e7%bb%8f%e9%aa%8c-%e7%94%a8%e6%95%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/704537.html","title":{"rendered":"\u3010CDT\u62a5\u544a\u6c47\u3011\u5bf9\u4ed8\u4e2d\u56fd\u4fe1\u606f\u6218\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u2014\u2014\u7528\u6570\u5b57\u6c11\u4e3b\u5bf9\u6297\u6570\u5b57\u6781\u6743\uff08\u5916\u4e8c\u7bc7\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"\u3010CDT\u62a5\u544a\u6c47\u3011\u5bf9\u4ed8\u4e2d\u56fd\u4fe1\u606f\u6218\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u2014\u2014\u7528\u6570\u5b57\u6c11\u4e3b\u5bf9\u6297\u6570\u5b57\u6781\u6743\uff08\u5916\u4e8c\u7bc7\uff09\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/wiRG-7fCrsk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align:center;margin-top:26px;margin-bottom:26px\">\n\n<!-- iframe plugin v.6.0 wordpress.org\/plugins\/iframe\/ -->\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.firstory.me\/embed\/story\/cls66i8d405pd01utczm5bdfu\" height=\"180\" width=\"700\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u7f16\u8005\u6309\uff1a\u300aCDT\u62a5\u544a\u6c47\u300b\u680f\u76ee\u6536\u5f55\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/space\/\u8a00\u8bba\u81ea\u7531\">\u8a00\u8bba\u81ea\u7531<\/a>\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6743\u95ee\u9898\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u8d44\u8baf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u591a\u79cd\u591a\u6837\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u673a\u6784\u8c03\u67e5\u3001\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u548c\u7f51\u6c11\u6c47\u96c6\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4e5f\u6b22\u8fce\u8bfb\u8005\u5411\u6211\u4eec<a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/telegrambot\">\u63a8\u8350<\/a>\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div style=\"width:42%;float:right;padding-left:20px\">\n<div class=\"su-spoiler su-spoiler-style-fancy su-spoiler-icon-chevron-circle su-spoiler-closed\" data-scroll-offset=\"0\" data-anchor-in-url=\"no\"><div class=\"su-spoiler-title\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\"><span class=\"su-spoiler-icon\"><\/span>CDT \u6863\u6848\u5361<\/div><div class=\"su-spoiler-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim\">\n<strong>\u6807\u9898\uff1a<\/strong>\u3010CDT\u62a5\u544a\u6c47\u3011CSIS\u8c03\u67e5\uff1a\u591a\u6570\u7f8e\u53f0\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u6e7e\uff08\u5916\u4e8c\u7bc7\uff09<br \/>\n<strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3<br \/>\n<strong>\u53d1\u8868\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/strong>2023.1.26<br \/>\n<strong>\u4e3b\u9898\u5f52\u7c7b\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/space\/\u53f0\u6e7e\" target=\"_blank\">\u53f0\u6e7e<\/a><br>\n<strong>CDS\u6536\u85cf\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/space\/%E5%85%AC%E6%B0%91%E9%A6%86\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u516c\u6c11\u9986<\/a><br>\n<strong>\u7248\u6743\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/strong>\u8be5\u4f5c\u54c1\u7248\u6743\u5f52\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u6709\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3\u4ec5\u5bf9\u539f\u4f5c\u8fdb\u884c\u5b58\u6863\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5ba1\u67e5\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/copyright\">\u8be6\u7ec6\u7248\u6743\u8bf4\u660e<\/a>\u3002\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3\u672c\u5468\u63a8\u8350\u5a92\u4f53\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/29principles.uk\/zh-hans\/lawyer_database\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7ef4\u6743\u5f8b\u5e08\u8d44\u6599\u5e93<\/a>\uff1a\u6536\u5f55\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u88ab\u6355\u7ef4\u6743\u5f8b\u5e08\u7684\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u8bbe\u7acb\u5728\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u201c29\u539f\u5219\u201d(THE 29 PRINCIPLES) \u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002\u201c29\u539f\u5219\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bbe\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u652f\u63f4\u9762\u4e34\u4eba\u6743\u538b\u8feb\u5f8b\u5e08\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5173\u4e8e\u5f8b\u5e08\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5219\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>\u4e00\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u900f\u660e\u548c\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u6253\u8d62\u201c\u865a\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u6218\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6cd5\u5b9d<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u671f\u520a\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98 (the diplomat) <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2024\/01\/confronting-digital-authoritarianism-through-digital-democracy-lessons-from-taiwan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8fd1\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u57282024\u5e74\u53f0\u6e7e\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u94fa\u5929\u76d6\u5730\u7684\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u529f\u62b5\u5fa1\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u8ba4\u77e5\u4f5c\u6218\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u53f0\u6e7e\u5f53\u5c40\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u6cbb\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u548c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5927\u9009\u5e74\u6765\u4e34\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2024\/01\/\u53f0\u6e7e\u6570\u5b57\u6c11\u4e3b.png\" alt=\"img\" \/><p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u6587\u7ae0\u622a\u56fe<\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u5f15\u7528\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5\u7ec4\u7ec7 Cofacts \u521b\u59cb\u4eba Billion Lee \u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u201c\u53f0\u6e7e\u9009\u4e3e\u524d\u7684\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\u4f1a\u6fc0\u589e\u7ea640%\u201d\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u77e5\u540d\u667a\u5e93V-Dem\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u793e\u4f1a\u9879\u76ee (Digital Society Project) \uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e86 2000 \u5e74\u81f3 2021 \u5e74\u671f\u95f4202\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u522b\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\u64cd\u7eb5\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u662f\u6700\u53d7\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\u653b\u51fb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u53bb\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u6570\u5b57\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u8def\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5f53\u4eca\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u5f00\u653e\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u653f\u5e9c\u5b9e\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u9879 &quot;\u5f00\u653e\u653f\u5e9c\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u52a8\u65b9\u6848&quot;\uff0c\u5c06\u4fc3\u8fdb &quot;\u6570\u636e\u5f00\u653e\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u81ea\u7531 &quot;\u5217\u4e3a\u4e94\u7c7b\u627f\u8bfa\u4e4b\u9996\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u8fd8\u4e8e 2020 \u5e74\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u201c\u5f00\u653e\u8bae\u4f1a\u884c\u52a8\u65b9\u6848\u201d\uff0c\u529b\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u6cbb\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5173\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u5229\u76ca\u8005\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u516c\u5f00\u4fe1\u606f\u67e5\u8be2\u5230\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u62b9\u9ed1\u9020\u8c23\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba9\u53f0\u6e7e\u6253\u8d62\u8ba4\u77e5\u6218\u7684\u5219\u662f\u84ec\u52c3\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8bc4\u4ef7\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u5f70\u663e\u53f0\u6e7e\u62e5\u62b1\u6570\u5b57\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ee5\u62b5\u5fa1\u5916\u56fd\u6570\u5b57\u4e13\u5236\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u516c\u6c11\u79d1\u6280\u793e\u533a\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3e\u63aa\u540c\u6837\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u201c\u6210\u7acb\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5\u4e2d\u5fc3 (Taiwan FactCheck Center) \u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u5176LINE\u804a\u5929\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4fe1\u606f\u63a5\u6536\u5e73\u53f0\u6765\u53cd\u51fb\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6570\u5b57\u7d20\u517b\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u201d\u3002\u201c\u672c\u7740\u5f00\u6e90\u900f\u660e\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u6bcf\u6761\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u4efd\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u6e90\u6750\u6599\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6570\u636e\u6e05\u5355\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8fd8\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u8fa9\u8bba\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u5e9c\u901a\u4fe1\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u5173\u95ed\u6076\u610f\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u5728\u6697\u4e2d\u65bd\u52a0\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2024\/01\/\u53f0\u7063\u4e8b\u5be6\u67e5\u6838\u4e2d\u5fc3-Taiwan-FactCheck-Center-tfc-taiwan.org_.tw_-1.png\" alt=\"img\" \/><p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5\u4e2d\u5fc3 (Taiwan FactCheck Center)<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u7531\u53f0\u6e7e\u516c\u6c11\u79d1\u6280\u754c\u5f00\u53d1\u5e76\u4e3a\u5176\u653f\u5e9c\u6240\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6c11\u4e3b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bfb\u6c42\u904f\u5236\u6570\u5b57\u4e13\u5236\u4e3b\u4e49\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u63d0\u4f9b\u501f\u9274\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u5411\u53f0\u6e7e\u5b66\u4e60\u800c\u4e0d\u7ed9\u4e88\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc5\u987b\u575a\u5b9a\u5730\u505a\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u6269\u5927\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u3001\u53f0\u6d77\u5175\u51f6\u6218\u5371\uff1f\u7f8e\u53f0\u4e13\u5bb6\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e2a\u80fd\u529b<\/h2>\n<p>\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3001\u73b0\u4efb\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u8d56\u6e05\u5fb7\u8d62\u5f97\u53f0\u6e7e\u5927\u9009\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e24\u5cb8\u5175\u51f6\u6218\u5371\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u8fdb\u5165\u5927\u4f17\u89c6\u91ce\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u62c5\u5fc3\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u91c7\u53d6\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u667a\u5e93\u8c03\u67e5\u4e8687\u540d\u9876\u7ea7\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7ed3\u8bba\u5176\u5b9e\u8fdc\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e13\u5bb6\u53c8\u666e\u904d\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u66f4\u52a0\u4e50\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u667a\u5e93\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3 (Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS) \u572822\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/surveying-experts-us-and-taiwan-views-chinas-approach-taiwan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a<\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u5728\u53bb\u5e7411\u6708\u300112\u6708\u5206\u522b\u6536\u96c6\u4e8652 \u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u548c 35 \u540d\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u3002\u8be5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u79f0\uff0c\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5206\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u53f0\u653f\u5e9c\u8d44\u6df1\u4eba\u58eb\u3001\u9876\u7ea7\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u667a\u5e93\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2024\/01\/Surveying-the-Experts_-U.S.-and-Taiwan-Views-on-Chinas-Approach-to-T_-www.csis_.org_.png\" alt=\"img\" \/><p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u62a5\u544a\u622a\u56fe<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u53ea\u670927%\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u548c17%\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u53d1\u52a8\u4e24\u6816\u767b\u9646\u4f5c\u6218 (Amphibious invasion of Taiwan)\uff0c\u5373\u6d3e\u5175\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u6e7e\u3002\u800c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4f1a\u987e\u53ca\u7f8e\u519b\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u76f4\u63a5\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u670996%\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4e2d\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u7f8e\u519b\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u5219\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u901a\u8fc7\u6d77\u8b66\u9694\u79bb\u53f0\u6e7e (Law enforcement-led quarantine of Taiwan) \u6216\u8005\u7531\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5c01\u9501\u53f0\u6e7e (People&#8217;s Liberation Army-led blockade of Taiwan)\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u533a\u522b\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u662f\u53ea\u9488\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u975e\u519b\u4e8b\u7684\u6709\u9650\u5c01\u9501\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5219\u662f\u5168\u9762\u5c01\u9501\u3002\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e13\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u66f4\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u53ea\u670960%\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5168\u9762\u5c01\u9501\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u768480%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u5c01\u9501\u201d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u201c\u5165\u4fb5\u201d\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u201c\u4e24\u6816\u5165\u4fb5\u9700\u8981\u6bd4\u9694\u79bb\u6216\u5c01\u9501\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e13\u5bb6\u8981\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u66f4\u52a0\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u65e0\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/h2>\n<p>\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56 (Foreign Policy) \u572823\u53f7\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u3001\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/01\/23\/china-decline-economy-demographics-geopolitics-growth\/#cookie_message_anchor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u00b7\u5f17\u4f26\u5947 (Howard W. French) \u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u867d\u7136\u5904\u5728\u8870\u843d\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u5c40\u5374\u65e0\u529b\u56de\u5929\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6839\u6e90\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u5728\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u8ba9\u6b65\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7ade\u4e89\u8017\u8d44\u5de8\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u201c\u67aa\u70ae\u548c\u9ec4\u6cb9\u201d (guns and butter) \u7684\u8270\u96be\u6289\u62e9\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u4ee3\u8868\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6c11\u751f\u7684\u201c\u9ec4\u6cb9\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u201c\u4e00\u5e26\u4e00\u8def\u201d\u548c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6269\u5145\u519b\u5907\u7684\u201c\u67aa\u70ae\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2024\/01\/Why-China-Cant-Stop-Its-Decline-foreignpolicy.com_.png\" alt=\"img\" \/><p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u6587\u7ae0\u622a\u56fe<\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u9996\u5148\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9762\u4e34\u8870\u843d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e4e\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u538b\u5236 (financial repression)\uff08\u7f16\u8005\u6ce8\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u538b\u5236\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4e3a\u538b\u4f4e\u5e02\u573a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8ba9\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u8865\u8d34\u503a\u52a1\u4eba\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\u8d44\u91d1\u88ab\u56fd\u5bb6\u652b\u53d6\u6216\u8005\u6c11\u4f17\u7531\u4e8e\u62c5\u5fc3\u751f\u75c5\u517b\u8001\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4eba\u4e3a\u538b\u4f4e\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8001\u767e\u59d3\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6295\u8d44\u6e20\u9053\u7b49\uff09\u4e5f\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u5916\u754c\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u66fe\u7ecf\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5947\u8ff9\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u968f\u7740\u6295\u8d44\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u5217\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6bd2\u836f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8870\u843d\u548c\u5176\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5916\u754c\u90fd\u6709\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u5c40\u660e\u77e5\u9053\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u597d\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u6539\u53d8\u8fd9\u4e00\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u5916\u754c\u5374\u6709\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc (Paul Robin Krugman) \u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u3002\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8584\u5f31\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b89\u5168\u7f51 (social safety net)\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u8981\u201c\u53d6\u4e4b\u4e8e\u6c11\uff0c\u7528\u4e4b\u4e8e\u6c11\u201d\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6c11\u4f17\u7f13\u89e3\u517b\u8001\u3001\u533b\u7597\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u751f\u80b2\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u5f20\u66ff\u6c11\u4f17\u201c\u515c\u5e95\u201d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b89\u5168\u7f51\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u91d1\u878d\u538b\u5236\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8ba9\u6c11\u4f17\u6562\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d70\u4e0a\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u201c\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u5e26\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u201d\u7684\u826f\u6027\u9053\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2024\/01\/post-704537-65b373e84b4fb.\" alt=\"img\" \/><p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc\u6307\u51fa\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u5c40\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u798f\u5229\u201d (anti-welfare) \u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u91c7\u53d6\u8fd9\u4e00\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3\u7f16\u8f91\u67e5\u9605\u8d44\u6599\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/communist-party-priorities-complicate-plans-to-revive-chinas-economy-84a156d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6301\u6709\u548c\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<\/a>\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u5c40\u867d\u7136\u81ea\u79f0\u201c\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u515a\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5374\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u5bf9\u5de6\u7ffc\u653f\u515a\u4e3b\u5f20\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u201d\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5374\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\u601d\u60f3\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u627f\uff0c\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u4e0a\u8d70\u4e0a\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u201c\u5c0f\u653f\u5e9c\u201d\u7684\u9053\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5374\u5bf9\u6b64\u6709\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u53cd\u798f\u5229\u201d\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u201c\u67aa\u70ae\u201d\u548c\u201c\u9ec4\u6cb9\u201d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u60f3\u8981\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5927\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u201d\uff0c\u6311\u6218\u73b0\u6709\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u603b\u9700\u8981\u6709\u4eba\u51fa\u94b1\u4e70\u5355\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u9009\u62e9\u62ff\u7740\u6709\u9650\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d44\u6e90\u652f\u6301\u201c\u4e00\u5e26\u4e00\u8def\u201d\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u5f53\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u7a97\u53e3\u201d\uff0c\u673a\u4e0d\u53ef\u5931\uff0c\u5931\u4e0d\u518d\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8868\u793a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u673a\u4f1a\u4e4b\u7a97\u5c06\u5728 2030 \u5e74\u4ee3\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u5173\u95ed\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u4e4b\u7a97\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u5c0f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u9762\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u94fa\u5929\u76d6\u5730\u7684\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u6210\u529f\u62b5\u5fa1\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u8ba4\u77e5\u4f5c\u6218\u201d\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u53f0\u6e7e\u5f53\u5c40\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u6cbb\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u548c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5927\u9009\u5e74\u6765\u4e34\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1091,"featured_media":704538,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ampforwp-amp-on-off":"hide-amp","home_featured":"top","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[43682,41492,45438,28589,43365],"tags":[8639,47975,9552,12116,12246,15526,33175],"class_list":["post-704537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podcast","category-twitter","category-citizen","category-28589","category-cdt","tag-8639","tag-47975","tag-9552","tag-12116","tag-12246","tag-15526","tag-33175","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/704537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1091"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=704537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/704537\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/704538"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=704537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=704537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=704537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}