{"id":720876,"date":"2025-09-01T02:57:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T09:57:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/?p=720876"},"modified":"2025-09-01T05:04:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T12:04:34","slug":"%e6%a1%83%e6%9e%97%ef%bd%9c%e4%b8%80%e7%af%87%e6%9c%89%e6%b7%b1%e5%ba%a6%e7%9a%84%e9%a5%a5%e8%8d%92%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a19591961%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e9%a5%a5%e8%8d%92","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/720876.html","title":{"rendered":"\u6843\u6797\uff5c\u4e00\u7bc7\u6709\u6df1\u5ea6\u7684\u9965\u8352\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff1a1959~1961\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u9965\u8352\u7684\u56de\u987e\u53ca\u542f\u793a"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u8282\u9009\u81ea\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u9648\u7855\u5148\u751f\u6df1\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u5173\u9965\u8352\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u300a1959~1961\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u9965\u8352\u7684\u56de\u987e\u53ca\u542f\u793a\u300b\uff0c\u539f\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u300b2011\u5e74\u7b2c4\u671f\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u4ec5\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f\u4f20\u64ad\u4e4b\u6240\u9700\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u81f4\u4ee5\u5d07\u9ad8\u7684\u656c\u610f\u3002 \u2014\u2014\u7f16\u8005\u6309<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2025\/09\/image-1756728113268.png\" alt=\"file\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u3001\u5185\u5bb9\u63d0\u8981<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9965\u8352\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u3001\u6218\u4e89(\u51b2\u7a81)\u7b49\u707e\u96be\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65e5\u76ca\u6210\u4e3a\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u652f\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u707e\u96be\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u63a8\u8bba(descrip-tive inference)\u548c\u63a2\u7d22\u707e\u96be\u6210\u56e0\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u63a8\u8bba(causal inference)\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762,\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5bf91959~1961\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u9965\u8352\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u9014\u5f84\u5c55\u5f00:\u7b2c\u4e00,\u5bf9\u9965\u8352\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u53ca\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u63cf\u8ff0;\u7b2c\u4e8c,\u5bf9\u9965\u8352\u4ea7\u751f\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u5206\u6790;\u7b2c\u4e09,\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u9886\u57df,\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u6b21\u9965\u8352\u9020\u6210\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u53ca\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<div style=\"width:42%;float:right;padding-left:20px;\">\n<div class=\"su-spoiler su-spoiler-style-fancy su-spoiler-icon-chevron-circle\" data-scroll-offset=\"0\" data-anchor-in-url=\"no\"><div class=\"su-spoiler-title\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\"><span class=\"su-spoiler-icon\"><\/span>CDT \u6863\u6848\u5361<\/div><div class=\"su-spoiler-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim\">\n<strong>\u6807\u9898\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e00\u7bc7\u6709\u6df1\u5ea6\u7684\u9965\u8352\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff1a1959~1961\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u9965\u8352\u7684\u56de\u987e\u53ca\u542f\u793a<br \/>\n<strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/space\/\u6843\u6797\" target=\"_blank\">\u6843\u6797<\/a><br>\n<strong>\u53d1\u8868\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/strong>2025.9.1<br \/>\n<strong>\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/*\/https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/FmXPtJcQubYQvW_rGJhfhA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u201c\u6843\u6797\u201d<\/a><br>\n<strong>\u4e3b\u9898\u5f52\u7c7b\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/space\/\u4e09\u5e74\u56f0\u96be\u65f6\u671f\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e09\u5e74\u56f0\u96be\u65f6\u671f<\/a><br>\n<strong>CDS\u6536\u85cf\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/space\/%E5%85%AC%E6%B0%91%E9%A6%86\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u516c\u6c11\u9986<\/a><br>\n<strong>\u7248\u6743\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/strong>\u8be5\u4f5c\u54c1\u7248\u6743\u5f52\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u6709\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6570\u5b57\u65f6\u4ee3\u4ec5\u5bf9\u539f\u4f5c\u8fdb\u884c\u5b58\u6863\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5ba1\u67e5\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/copyright\">\u8be6\u7ec6\u7248\u6743\u8bf4\u660e<\/a>\u3002\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u9965\u8352\u53d1\u751f\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd0\u52a8<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u6307\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u4e94\u5e74\u8ba1\u5212(1958~1962\u5e74)\u7684\u524d3\u5e74\u3002\u6b64\u524d,\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u524d\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0b\u4e8e1957\u5e74\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e94\u5e74\u8ba1\u5212\u30021955\u5e74\u5e95,\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u5feb\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u6539\u9020\u548c\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5efa\u8bbe(\u8584\u4e00\u6ce2,1997)\u30021956\u5e744\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u8bba\u5341\u5927\u5173\u7cfb\u300b\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c6\u4f5c\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u9053\u8def\u6709\u522b\u4e8e\u524d\u82cf\u8054\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8868\u8ff0(L iebertha,l 1995)\u3002\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u57281958\u5e743\u6708\u6210\u90fd\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u5e76\u5728\u540c\u5e745\u6708\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u516b\u5927\u4e8c\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u6b63\u5f0f\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u201c<strong>\u9f13\u8db3\u5e72\u52b2,\u529b\u4e89\u4e0a\u6e38,\u591a\u5feb\u597d\u7701\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong>\u201d\u7684\u603b\u8def\u7ebf,\u8be5\u65b9\u9488\u5177\u6709\u663e\u8457\u7684\u975e\u8ba1\u5212\u8272\u5f69\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4,\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u5316\u7684\u8fdb\u5ea6\u515a\u5185\u5b58\u5728\u601d\u60f3\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5206\u6b67,\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5206\u6b67\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u201c\u5192\u8fdb\u201d\u3001\u201c\u53cd\u2018\u5192\u8fdb\u201d\u3001\u201c\u53cd\u2018\u53cd\u5192\u8fdb\u201d\u7b49\u53cd\u590d\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d,\u6700\u7ec8\u4ee5\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd0\u52a8\u7ed3\u675f\u30021958\u5e743\u6708\u4ee5\u540e\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u8ba1\u5212\u51b3\u7b56\u6240\u4f9d\u9760\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u90e8\u95e8\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e0d\u80fd\u6b63\u5e38\u8fdb\u884c,\u57fa\u672c\u4e3a\u9ad8\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u9996\u5148\u4ece\u519c\u6751\u5f00\u59cb,\u5728\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u63a8\u8fdb\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u519c\u7530\u6c34\u5229\u5efa\u8bbe\u3002\u5728\u519c\u4e1a\u8ba1\u5212\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u65b9\u9762,\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e1957\u5e743700\u4ebf\u65a4\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf,1958\u5e74\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4ea7\u91cf\u6700\u521d\u4e3a4316\u4ebf\u65a4,\u8be5\u6570\u5b57\u57281958\u5e749\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5317\u6234\u6cb3\u4f1a\u8bae\u516c\u62a5\u4e0a\u88ab\u4fee\u8ba2\u4e3a6000~7000\u4ebf\u65a4,\u5176\u540e\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u516b\u5c4a\u516d\u4e2d\u5168\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6700\u7ec8\u88ab\u63d0\u9ad8\u52307500\u4ebf\u65a4(\u8584\u4e00\u6ce2,1997)\u3002\u5728\u519c\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u5316\u9886\u57df,\u5efa\u7acb\u89c4\u6a21\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u516c\u793e\u6765\u53d6\u4ee3\u539f\u5148\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u793e,\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u52a8\u5458\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4ece\u4e8b\u519c\u7530\u6c34\u5229\u548c\u94a2\u94c1\u51b6\u70bc;\u4e3a\u4e86\u589e\u52a0\u52b3\u52a8\u4f9b\u7ed9,\u5728\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5efa\u7acb\u516c\u5171\u98df\u5802\u4ee5\u6b64\u5c06\u5987\u5973\u4ece\u5bb6\u52a1\u4e2d\u89e3\u653e\u51fa\u6765(Chen,2008)\u3002\u5de5\u4e1a\u65b9\u9762\u5178\u578b\u7684\u8dc3\u8fdb\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u94a2\u94c1\u7b49\u91cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u9886\u57df,\u94a2\u94c1\u4ea7\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u4e5f\u548c\u7cae\u98df\u8ba1\u5212\u4e00\u6837\u88ab\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u5411\u4e0a\u4fee\u6b63,1958\u5e74\u300a\u4eba\u6c11\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u5143\u65e6\u793e\u8bba\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u94a2\u94c1\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u91cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u54c1\u4ea7\u91cf\u8981\u201c\u8d85\u82f1\u8d76\u7f8e\u201d\u7684\u53e3\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u6307\u6807\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e0a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f20\u7edf\u8ba1\u5212\u90e8\u95e8\u901a\u8fc7\u7f16\u5236\u8ba1\u5212\u3001\u5236\u5b9a\u9884\u7b97\u3001\u5b9e\u65bd\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0d\u518d\u9002\u7528\u3002\u5728\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u52a8\u7684\u5927\u70bc\u94a2\u94c1\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bf4\u660e\u4f01\u4e1a\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u6210\u4e2d\u592e\u5317\u6234\u6cb3\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u5236\u5b9a\u76841070\u4e07\u5428\u94a2\u94c1\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u9ad8\u6307\u6807,\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e94\u5e74\u8ba1\u5212\u4e2d\u5efa\u6210\u5e76\u7eb3\u5165\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u94a2\u94c1\u5382\u4ea7\u91cf\u6709\u9650\uff1a\u4e00\u4e94\u671f\u95f4\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u70bc\u94a2\u80fd\u529b\u4e3a281.6\u4e07\u5428,\u6574\u4e2a\u4e00\u4e94\u671f\u95f4\u4ea7\u94a21656\u4e07\u5428,\u5176\u4e2d1957\u5e74\u4ea7\u94a2535\u4e07\u5428(\u4f59\u626c\u658c,2009)\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u201c\u6bdb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u611f\u5230\u8ba1\u5212\u6709\u5b8c\u4e0d\u6210\u7684\u5371\u9669,\u51b3\u5b9a\u5927\u641e\u7fa4\u4f17\u8fd0\u52a8,\u5b9e\u884c\u4e66\u8bb0\u6302\u5e05,\u5168\u515a\u5168\u6c11\u529e\u94a2\u94c1\u201d(\u8584\u4e00\u6ce2,1997)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0,\u5efa\u56fd\u521d\u671f\u7684\u515a\u653f\u4e0d\u5206\u6216\u8005\u4ee5\u515a\u4ee3\u653f\u4f7f\u5f97\u515a\u4f1a\u8f83\u591a\u5730\u4f9d\u9760\u53d1\u52a8\u7fa4\u4f17\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe,\u800c\u8f83\u5c11\u5730\u53d7\u5230\u6765\u81ea\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u5982\u9884\u7b97\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u7b49\u7684\u9650\u5236,\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u671f\u95f4\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u5408\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u9ad8\u6307\u6807\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u6d6e\u5938\u98ce\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e09\u3001\u9965\u8352\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u53e3\u53ca\u5206\u5e03\u7279\u5f81<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2025\/09\/post-720876-68b58bd250c83.png\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">1954~1966\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90: 5\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u5e02\u3001\u81ea\u6cbb\u533a\u3001\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u5386\u53f2\u7edf\u8ba1\u8d44\u6599\u6c47\u7f16 ( 1949~ 1989) 6 ( 1990), \u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c31\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185,\u9965\u8352\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u57281959\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0,\u8be5\u5e74\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4e3a14.59\u2030,\u6bd41955~1957\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387(11.49\u2030)\u9ad83.10\u2030\u3002\u9965\u8352\u57281960\u5e74\u6700\u4e25\u91cd,\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e74\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8625.43\u2030\u30021961\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d,1962\u5e74\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6b21\u9965\u8352\u4e2d\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u4eba\u53e3\u635f\u5931,\u5b66\u8005\u6839\u636e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1,\u7ed3\u8bba\u5b58\u5728\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u848b\u6b63\u534e\u4e0e\u674e\u5357(1988\u30011996)\u5bf9\u4e8e\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a1700\u4e07\u4eba,\u6b64\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u4e00\u822c\u88ab\u5b66\u754c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u53e3\u635f\u5931\u7684\u4e0b\u9650;\u5176\u4ed6\u5177\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6570\u5b57\u6709:Peng(1987)\u4e3a2300\u4e07,Coale(1981)\u4e3a2700\u4e07,Ashton\u7b49(1984)\u4e3a2950\u4e07,\u66f9\u6811\u57fa(2005,a\u3001b)\u4e3a3246\u4e07\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2025\/09\/post-720876-68b58bd259728.png\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u88681\uff1a\u5206\u5730\u533a\u4eba\u53e3\u51c0\u635f\u5931<\/p>  <\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u660e: \u4f5c\u8005\u4ee5 1957\u5e74\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u671f\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408 1955~ 1957 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u4eba\u53e3\u81ea\u7136\u589e\u957f\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u5230\u7684 1961\u5e74\u5168\u56fd\u5e94\u6709\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u4e3a 68902\u4e07\u4eba, \u5219\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u4eba\u53e3\u51c0\u635f\u5931\u4e3a 3860\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u8d1f\u6570\u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u8be5\u7701\u4eba\u53e3\u5728\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90: \u5168\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u5e02\u3001\u81ea\u6cbb\u533a\u3001\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u5386\u53f2\u7edf\u8ba1\u8d44\u6599\u6c47\u7f16 ( 1949- 1989) \u00a0 ( 1990), \u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u51fa\u7248\u793e<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u6b21\u9965\u8352\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u5176\u5206\u5e03\u5177\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5730\u533a\u5dee\u522b,\u88681\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u4efd\u7684\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u4eba\u53e3\u51c0\u635f\u5931,\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u8868\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u51c0\u635f\u5931\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u4e0b\u9650\u662f2400\u4e07,\u4e0a\u9650\u662f3860\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\u4ece\u7edd\u5bf9\u6570\u6765\u770b,\u56db\u5ddd\u7701\u5728\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u4eba\u53e3\u51c0\u635f\u5931\u6570\u4e3a1150\u4e07\u4eba,\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u603b\u635f\u5931\u768438.34%\u3002\u4ece\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u6765\u770b,\u53d7\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7701\u4efd\u662f\u5b89\u5fbd,\u8be5\u77011960\u5e74\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4e3a56.87\u2030(\u5b89\u5fbd\u77011955~1957\u5e74\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u662f11.73\u2030,1960\u5e74\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u662f68.60\u2030)\u3002\u800c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u91cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u7701\u4efd\u8fbd\u5b81,1960\u5e74\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u662f2.23\u2030,\u4ec5\u4e3a\u524d\u8005\u76841\/25\u3002\u5c31\u57ce\u4e61\u5dee\u5f02\u770b,\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a(Lin and Yang,2000;Kung and Lin,2003)\u3002\u4ee5\u9965\u8352\u6700\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\u76841960\u5e74\u4e3a\u4f8b,\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4e3a28\u2030,\u800c\u57ce\u5e02\u4ec5\u4e3a13.73\u2030\u3002\u4ece\u88681\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u5317\u4eac\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u548c\u5929\u6d25\u57fa\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u4e09\u4e2a\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u5728\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u662f7.13\u2030,\u800c\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u662f6.96\u2030\u3002\u4eba\u53e3\u635f\u5931\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u5206\u5e03\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u63a2\u7d22\u9965\u8352\u6210\u56e0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5730\u533a\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u56db\u3001\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ca\u6210\u56e0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>(\u4e00)\u5173\u4e8e\u9965\u8352\u6210\u56e0\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u963f\u9a6c\u8482\u4e9a-\u68ee\u4e4b\u524d,\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u9965\u8352\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4ecd\u505c\u7559\u5728\u9a6c\u5c14\u8428\u65af\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u8be5\u89c2\u70b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6,\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd,\u63a7\u5236\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u7684\u673a\u5236\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u73b0\u5b9e\u6027\u6291\u5236(positive check)\uff1a\u5f53\u7cae\u98df\u751f\u4ea7\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ddf\u4e0a\u4eba\u53e3\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6216\u7531\u4e8e\u5929\u6c14\u3001\u751f\u7269\u707e\u5bb3\u800c\u51cf\u4ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u9965\u8352\u5c31\u6210\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u6291\u5236\u7684\u5178\u578b\u8868\u73b0(Malthu1798)\u3002\u7cae\u98df\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u4f9b\u5e94\u662f\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u8003\u5bdf\u7684\u91cd\u70b9,\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7cae\u98df\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u4e0b\u964d\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u9965\u8352\u3002\u9965\u8352\u56e0\u6b64\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u201c\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u3001\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u98df\u7269\u532e\u4e4f\u201d(Ravallion,1997)\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7406\u8bba\u88ab\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u98df\u7269\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u201d(\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0FAD\u7406\u8bba)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u68ee(Sen,1981)\u5728\u8003\u5bdf\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9965\u8352\u6848\u4f8b\u540e,\u53d1\u73b0\u9965\u8352\u5728\u7cae\u98df\u603b\u4ea7\u91cf\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7167\u6837\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f,\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u57281974\u5e74\u7684\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u9965\u8352\u4e2d\u5c24\u5176\u663e\u8457\u3002\u68ee\u56e0\u6b64\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9965\u8352\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3,\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u8db3\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u9965\u8352\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765,\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u67d0\u4e2a\u804c\u4e1a(\u9636\u5c42)\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u5316\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5931\u53bb\u6216\u8005\u88ab\u5265\u593a\u4e86\u83b7\u5f97\u7cae\u98df\u7684\u201c\u4ea4\u6362\u6743\u5229(exchange entitlement)\u201d\u624d\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u9965\u8352\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u68ee\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e00\u822c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6743\u5229\u7406\u8bba(entitlement approach)\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u201c\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u3001\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u3001\u5a01\u80c1\u751f\u547d\u7684\u9965\u997f\u201d(Ravallion,1997)\u3002\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1,\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u5b9a\u4e49,\u8be5\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u8981\u66f4\u5e7f,\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6ca1\u6709\u5c06\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9965\u8352\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4fa7\u91cd\u70b9\u4e0d\u540c,\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f7c\u6b64\u5bf9\u7acb\u3002\u9996\u5148,\u4f20\u7edfFAD\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u201c\u6743\u5229\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6bd4\u5982,\u4e2d\u56fd1959~1961\u5e74\u9965\u8352\u548c\u524d\u82cf\u80541932~1933\u5e74\u9965\u8352\u90fd\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e4b\u524d\u6fc0\u8fdb\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u8fd0\u52a8,\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fd0\u52a8\u5747\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u964d(Massmio,1993)\u3002\u800cLin(1993)\u548cMassmio(1993)\u5173\u4e8e\u6fc0\u8fdb\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u8fd0\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u542f\u53d1\u4e86\u4f17\u591a\u540e\u7eed\u7814\u7a76,\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u8fd0\u7528\u201c\u6743\u5229\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u9965\u8352\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5176\u6b21,\u867d\u7136\u6709\u4e9b\u9965\u8352\u6700\u521d\u786e\u5b9e\u6765\u81ea\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7,\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u9965\u8352\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03,\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7fa4\u4f53\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u76f8\u5bf9\u7279\u522b\u5927\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7(\u6ce2\u52a8)\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u201c\u6743\u5229\u5931\u8d25(entitlement failure)\u201d,\u8fdb\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u9965\u8352?\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f15\u8d77\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5177\u6709\u9c9c\u660e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u542b\u4e49\uff1a\u5728\u9965\u8352\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u518d\u5206\u914d\u63aa\u65bd\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u51cf\u7f13\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f20\u7edf\u7684FAD\u7406\u8bba\u5c06\u8003\u5bdf\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u7cae\u98df\u603b\u91cf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53ca\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e0a,\u800c\u201c\u6743\u5229\u201d\u89c2\u70b9\u66f4\u52a0\u4fa7\u91cd\u7cae\u98df\u5728\u5206\u914d\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u8bc6\u522b\u9965\u8352\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u68c0\u9a8c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f83\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8003\u5bdf\u7cae\u98df\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73b0\u7a81\u7136\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u540e\u8005\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u89c2\u5bdf\u906d\u53d7\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u804c\u4e1a(\u9636\u5c42)\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97,1960\u5e74\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u9965\u8352\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u5c31\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u751f\u4ea7\u800c\u8a00,1958\u548c1959\u5e74\u7cae\u98df\u603b\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u4e24\u5e74\u79fb\u52a8\u5747\u503c\u4e3a142.44\u4ebf\u65a4,\u4eba\u5747\u7cae\u98df\u79fb\u52a8\u5747\u503c\u4e3a581.97\u65a4\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u91cf\u6298\u6210\u70ed\u91cf\u540e\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a\u4eba\u5747\u6bcf\u59292710\u5343\u5361,\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7cae\u98df\u53ca\u519c\u4e1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u6700\u4f4e\u6444\u5165\u70ed\u91cf(1900~2400\u5343\u5361)(FAO,2008)\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7cae\u98df\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u5728\u9886\u571f\u5883\u5185\u6309\u4eba\u53e3\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u9965\u8352\u53ef\u80fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u3002\u6b64\u5916,FAD\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u6b21\u9965\u8352\u7684\u6709\u9650\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u8fd8\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u9965\u8352\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u76841962\u5e74\u4eba\u5747\u7cae\u98df\u79fb\u52a8\u5747\u503c\u4e3a465.35\u65a4,\u53cd\u800c\u4f4e\u4e8e3\u5e74\u9965\u8352\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5747\u503c471.78\u65a4\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8bc1\u636e\u90fd\u8868\u660e\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u635f\u5931\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u5168\u90e8\u3002\u5c31\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u4eba\u53e3\u635f\u5931\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9965\u8352\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u4e24\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206,\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u5165\u624b\u7efc\u8ff0\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6b21\u9965\u8352\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5e94\u8be5\u6ce8\u610f\u5230,\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7\u7684\u539f\u56e0,\u800c\u540e\u8005\u5219\u7740\u529b\u5206\u6790\u5f71\u54cd\u57ce\u4e61\u53ca\u5206\u5730\u533a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>(\u4e8c)\u5173\u4e8eFAD\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9965\u8352\u5728\u7cae\u98df\u6ca1\u6709\u6062\u590d\u5230\u707e\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f,\u8fd9\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u707e\u540e\u653f\u5e9c\u76f8\u5bf9\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u5206\u914d\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\u7cae\u98df\u603b\u4ea7\u91cf\u57281959\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u964d\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u4e89\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u8be5\u5e74\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e3a17000\u4e07\u5428,\u8f83\u4e0a\u5e74\u4e0b\u964d15%\uff0c1960\u5e74\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u53c8\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u51cf\u4ea716%\u3002Lin(1990)\u3001Li\u548cYang(2005)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65e8\u5728\u53d1\u73b0\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6b64\u5916,\u7cae\u98df\u7684\u8fc7\u91cf\u6d88\u8d39\u540c\u6837\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u5e93\u5b58,Yang(1996)\u3001Chang\u548cWen(1997)\u56e0\u6b64\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u671f\u95f4\u5728\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u666e\u904d\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u98df\u5802\u5236\u5ea6\u5bf9\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Lin\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u91c7\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c2\u70b9\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u56fd\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u3002Lin(1990)\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u5728\u519c\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u5316\u4ee5\u540e\u964d\u4f4e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002Lin\u5728\u8be5\u6587\u4e2d\u68c0\u89c6\u4e863\u4e2a\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u9965\u8352\u6210\u56e0:(1)\u8fde\u7eed3\u5e74\u7684\u574f\u5929\u6c14(\u9965\u8352\u524d\u540e\u7531\u5929\u6c14\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u53d7\u707e\u60c5\u51b5\u89c1\u56fe2)\uff1b(2)\u516c\u793e\u7ba1\u7406\u5931\u8d25\uff1b(3)\u8fc7\u5927\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u7ec4\u7ec7\u89c4\u6a21\u5bfc\u81f4\u6fc0\u52b1\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u548c\u4f4e\u6548\u7387\u5e76\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u5bfc\u81f4\u6548\u7387\u635f\u5931\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u662f1958\u5e74\u79cb\u5929\u519c\u6c11\u9000\u793e\u6743\u7684\u4e27\u5931\uff1b\u8be5\u6743\u5229\u7684\u4e27\u5931\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u5077\u61d2\u7684\u793e\u5458\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u793e\u6210\u5458\u65e0\u6cd5\u9009\u62e9\u9000\u793e\u6765\u4fdd\u8bc1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u6210\u679c\u4e0d\u88ab\u4fb5\u8680\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u52b3\u52a8\u6295\u5165\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e861958\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b64\u540e\u6574\u4e2a\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u671f\u95f4\u519c\u4e1a\u52b3\u52a8\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u7684\u5f98\u5f8a\u4e0d\u524d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9000\u51fa\u6743\u4e27\u5931\u662f\u5426\u771f\u6b63\u662f\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u4e89\u8bba\u3002Kung(1993)\u8d28\u7591\u9000\u51fa\u6743\u662f\u5426\u771f\u6b63\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u51cf\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u7531\u6709\u4e24\u70b9\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00,\u6309\u7167Lin\u7684\u903b\u8f91,\u57281958\u5e74\u79cb\u4e4b\u524d\u7531\u4e8e\u793e\u5458\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u9000\u51fa\u6743\u4e92\u76f8\u5236\u7ea6,\u56e0\u6b64\u8be5\u9636\u6bb5\u5bf9\u76d1\u7763\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u5e76\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002Kung\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e0e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0d\u7b26:\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u9000\u51fa\u9ad8\u7ea7\u793e\u65f6,\u9ad8\u7ea7\u793e\u5b9e\u884c\u7684\u5374\u662f\u8981\u6c42\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u76d1\u7763\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u8ba1\u4ef6\u5de5\u8d44(piece rate),\u800c\u4e4b\u540e\u6070\u6070\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u5bb9\u6613\u65bd\u884c\u7684\u8ba1\u65f6\u5de5\u8d44(tmie rate)\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c,\u867d\u71361958\u5e74\u79cb\u5929\u4e4b\u524d\u519c\u6c11\u6709\u6743\u5229\u9009\u62e9\u9000\u51fa\u9ad8\u7ea7\u793e\uff0c\u5373\u5236\u5ea6\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316,\u4f46\u8fd9\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u540d\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684,\u771f\u6b63\u9000\u793e\u7684\u6210\u672c\u6781\u5176\u9ad8\u6602,\u519c\u6c11\u5728\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6743\u5229\u3002\u56e0\u6b64,\u5728Kung\u770b\u6765,\u9000\u51fa\u6743\u57281958\u5e74\u524d\u540e\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u53d8\u5316,\u56e0\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2025\/09\/post-720876-68b58bd26143b.png\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">1956~ 1966\u5e74\u5168\u56fd\u53d7\u707e\u9762\u79ef\u6bd4\u91cd (% )<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90: 51949- 1995 \u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u62a5\u544a6 ( 1995) , \u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u51fa\u7248\u793e;1949- 1988\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u6c34\u5229\u5efa\u8bbe\u6210\u5c316 ( 1989), \u6c34\u5229\u90e8\u8ba1\u5212\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Li\u548cYang(2005)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7\u505a\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8003\u5bdf\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b,\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6025\u4e8e\u52a0\u5feb\u53d1\u5c55\u6b65\u4f10\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u5b98\u5458\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u519c\u4e1a\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u83b7\u53d6\u519c\u4e1a\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u9020\u6210\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u6ed1\u5761\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u641c\u96c6\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u63cf\u8ff0\u4ee5\u53ca\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5f81\u8c03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u8fd0\u75281952~1977\u5e74\u7684\u7701\u7ea7\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e,\u8be5\u6587\u53d1\u73b0\u5bf9\u519c\u6751\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u6c72\u53d6\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u9965\u8352\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20,\u8be5\u53d8\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca33%\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7;\u5bf9\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u7684\u9ad8\u5f81\u8d2d\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20,\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca28.3%\u7684\u51cf\u4ea7;\u800c\u574f\u5929\u6c14\u4ec5\u4ec5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e8612.9%\u3002Li\u548cYang\u6700\u7ec8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u707e\u60c5\u5e94\u5f53\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b8c\u5168\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4f5c\u8005\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u5206\u89e3\u51fa\u519c\u4e1a\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u539f\u56e0,\u4f46\u662f\u5c06\u519c\u4e1a\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u5374\u503c\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u601d\u8003\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u672c\u6587\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u8282\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0,\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd0\u52a8\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8bd5\u56fe\u7ed5\u5f00\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u82cf\u8054\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f6c\u800c\u4f9d\u9760\u53d1\u52a8\u7fa4\u4f17\u6765\u5b9e\u65bd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u5efa\u7acb\u81ea\u6211\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u516c\u793e\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u51b2\u51fb\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u5927\u70bc\u94a2\u94c1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u8db3\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u8ba1\u5212\u5b98\u5458\u5728\u90a3\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u906d\u53d7\u4e25\u91cd\u51b2\u51fb\u751a\u81f3\u201c\u9760\u8fb9\u7ad9\u201d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u9700\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662f,\u5efa\u56fd\u540e\u52301978\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u4e2d\u56fd\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u65f6\u4ee3,\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u51fa\u73b0\u519c\u4e1a\u707e\u96be?\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc1\u636e\u5747\u8bf4\u660e,\u5c06\u9965\u8352\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u7b3c\u7edf\u7684\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0e\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0d\u76f8\u7b26\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2025\/09\/post-720876-68b58bd269082.png\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u88682\uff1a\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u671f\u95f4\u57fa\u5c42\u98df\u5802\u8fd0\u884c\u60c5\u51b5<\/p>  <\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u660e: \u4ece 1958\u5e74 7\u6708\u5230 12\u6708, 24\u4e2a\u7701\u4efd\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u515a\u62a5\u5171\u6709 120\u6761\u5173\u4e8e\u98df\u5802\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90: \u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u6280\u5927\u5b66\u793e \u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u90e8 Kung,Kai- sa ,i James\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e,<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6587\u732e\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5c31\u7cae\u98df\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6765\u8bf4,\u5bf9\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u671f\u95f4\u5728\u519c\u6751\u666e\u904d\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u6d88\u8d39\u7ec4\u7ec7\u2014\u2014\u516c\u5171\u98df\u5802\u662f\u5426\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u9965\u8352\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0,\u5b66\u754c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u98df\u5802\u4e2d\u7684\u98df\u7269\u6d88\u8d39\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u53e3\u53f7\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5c42\u9762\u662f\u201c\u655e\u5f00\u5403\u996d\u201d,\u56e0\u6b64\u8be5\u73b0\u8c61\u4e3a\u68c0\u9a8cHardin(1968)\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u516c\u5730\u60b2\u5267\u201d\u8457\u540d\u5047\u8bbe\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u673a\u4f1a\u3002Yang(1996)\u5229\u7528\u5404\u7701\u53c2\u52a0\u98df\u5802\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u91cd\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\u98df\u5802\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb,\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u98df\u5802\u663e\u8457\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3002\u6b64\u5916,Chang\u548cWen(1997)\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u7cfb\u7edf\u8003\u5bdf\u98df\u5802\u5728\u9965\u8352\u4e2d\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f,\u622a\u81f31958\u5e74\u79cb\u5929,\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5927\u7ea6\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86265\u4e07\u4e2a\u98df\u5802,\u523010\u6708\u5e95,\u670970%~90%\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u7ecf\u52a0\u5165\u98df\u5802\u3002\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u98df\u7269\u6d88\u8d39\u4f7f\u5f97\u5728\u77ed\u77ed20\u5929\u5185\u5c31\u6d88\u8017\u5b8c\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u50a8\u5907,\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u79cb\u5b63\u4e30\u6536\u4e4b\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u7ef4\u6301\u751f\u5b58(Potter and 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u82f1\u4e0e\u5b5f\u4ee4\u6770(2006)\u4ece\u7f3a\u7cae\u533a\u7684\u5212\u5206\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5206\u7701\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4ece\u201c\u6743\u5229\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u89d2\u5ea6,\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u6837\u672c\u5206\u4e3a\u57ce\u5e02\u3001\u4f20\u7edf\u4ea7\u7cae\u533a\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f3a\u7cae\u533a\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u9965\u8352\u4e2d\u4f20\u7edf\u7f3a\u7cae\u533a\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u7cae\u98df\u8fd4\u9500\u53cd\u800c\u707e\u60c5\u8f83\u8f7b\u3002\u8be5\u7ed3\u8bba\u88abMeng\u7b49(2010)\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc1\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7814\u7a76\u5747\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u5728\u5404\u7701\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02,\u5e76\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bfb\u627e\u9020\u6210\u8be5\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\u68ee\u7684\u9965\u8352\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9002\u7528\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf,\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u533a\u5206\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u548c\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387,\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4f7f\u5f97\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u5177\u6709\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4ece\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u6548\u7387\u3002\u540c\u65f6,\u73b0\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u53d1\u73b0\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u4e0b\u9762\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u707e\u60c5\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u65e0\u52a8\u4e8e\u8877,\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u5730\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u5e76\u6536\u655b\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6(\u5468\u98de\u821f,2003)\u3002\u56e0\u6b64,\u653f\u7b56\u6216\u8005\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u9965\u8352\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4f1a\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u8054\u7acb\u5185\u751f\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5f71\u54cd,\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u7cfb\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u653f\u6cbb\u6fc0\u8fdb\u53d8\u91cf\u5728Kung\u548cLin(2003)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u88ab\u5f53\u505a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd0\u52a8\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5178\u578b\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6c1b\u56f4,\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u53ca\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8def\u7ebf\u5206\u6b67\u4e0a,\u6bd4\u5982Chang(1975)\u548cMacFarquhar(1974)\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u4e24\u6761\u8def\u7ebf\u201d\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Bachman(1991)\u8fd0\u7528\u201c\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u7684\u5206\u6790\u67b6\u6784\u7814\u7a76\u5b98\u5458\u96c6\u56e2\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u90e8\u95e8\u5229\u76ca,\u7279\u522b\u662f\u201c\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u91cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u90e8\u95e8\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5dee\u522b,\u4e00\u4e9b\u90e8\u95e8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u8eab\u90e8\u95e8\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u8bc9\u6c42\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b9e\u65bd\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u8bc1\u636e,\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7814\u7a76\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u800c\u975e\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u8bba\u3002\u540c\u65f6,\u4ece\u56e0\u679c\u8bc6\u522b\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bf4,\u4e0a\u8ff0\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u592e\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u5404\u4e2a\u7701\u4efd\u5728\u63a8\u884c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u4e9b\u6587\u732e\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u4e2a\u522b\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6d3b\u8dc3\u8868\u73b0,\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u5c06\u5176\u5f52\u548e\u4e3a\u8be5\u7701\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u6027\u683c\u53ca\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982Yang(1996)\u3001Teiwes\u548cSun(1998)\u8ba4\u4e3a:\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7701\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u786e\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u8be5\u7701\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u653f\u7b56\u3002Chen(2011)\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5b89\u5fbd\u548c\u6c5f\u897f\u4e24\u7701,\u4ed6\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7701\u4efd\u5728\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u663e\u8457\u5dee\u522b\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u5f52\u7ed3\u5230\u4e24\u7701\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u4e0a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u53f2\u5b9e\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5f53\u65f6\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u7406\u89e3,\u4f46\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u6fc0\u8fdb\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u6027\u683c\u6216\u8005\u4fe1\u4ef0\u65e0\u7591\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f,\u6b64\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c31\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5404\u7701\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5dee\u5f02\u505a\u51fa\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kung\u548cChen(2011)\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u8d85\u989d\u51c0\u5f81\u6536\u7387\u201d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u53d8\u91cf,\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u7d22\u653f\u6cbb\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5728\u7701\u4e0e\u7701\u4e4b\u95f4\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6210\u56e0\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7701\u59d4\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u884c\u4e3a\u6e90\u4e8e\u4f53\u5236\u5185\u8574\u542b\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236:\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u88ab\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b,\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u592e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5019\u8865\u59d4\u5458\u7684\u7701\u59d4\u4e66\u8bb0\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6b63\u5f0f\u59d4\u5458\u7684\u7701\u59d4\u4e66\u8bb0\u66f4\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u901a\u8fc7\u63a8\u884c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u653f\u7b56\u8c0b\u6c42\u664b\u5347\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u53ca\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u89d2\u8272\u91cd\u89c6\u7684\u56de\u5e94,\u8be5\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u4e2a\u4eba\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u4f4f\u5404\u4e2a\u7701\u4efd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u53d1\u73b0\u524d\u8ff0\u7ed3\u8bba\u4f9d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u53d8,\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6027\u683c\u3001\u4fe1\u4ef0\u53ca\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7b49\u3002\u5229\u7528\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e,Kung\u548cChen\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6307\u51fa\u57fa\u4e8e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u664b\u5347\u6fc0\u52b1\u540c\u6837\u662f\u6fc0\u8fdb\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u6307\u51fa,\u8be5\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u5728\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u540c\u6837\u5b58\u5728,\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u664b\u5347\u7684\u8003\u6838\u6307\u6807\u7531\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5f81\u6536\u7387\u8f6c\u5230\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u201c\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u53d7\u76ca(all-encompassing)\u201d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f(McGuire and Olson,1996)\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u5bf9\u7406\u89e3\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981,\u5e76\u5728\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u6307\u51fa\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u540c\u6837\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u96c6\u6743\u52a0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6743\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8bbe\u7f6e(regionally decentralized authoritarianism,Xu and Sun,2009)\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u76f8\u5f84\u5ead\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762,\u8be5\u6587\u53d1\u6398\u5e76\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u6d4b\u91cf\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u6bd4\u5982,\u8be5\u6587\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fd4\u9500\u7cae\u7684\u6570\u91cf,\u4ece\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7531\u4e8e\u53cd\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5185\u751f\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u53d7\u707e\u6bd4\u7387\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u9965\u8352\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u6b64\u5916,\u8be5\u6587\u5e94\u7528\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53d8\u91cf\u5982\u53f3\u6d3e\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u201c\u9ad8\u4ea7\u536b\u661f\u201d\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u53c2\u52a0\u98df\u5802\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u7387\u53ca\u519c\u4e1a\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u8fdb\u5ea6\u6765\u7cfb\u7edf\u6d4b\u91cf\u5206\u5730\u533a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5ea6(\u89c1\u88683)\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2025\/09\/post-720876-68b58bd271f27.png\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u88683\uff1a\u5206\u7701\u6fc0\u8fdb\u6307\u6807<\/p>  <\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u660e: \u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u5305\u62ec\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u53ca\u65b0\u7586\u7ef4\u543e\u5c14\u81ea\u6cbb\u533a\u3002\u5982\u9700\u5f15\u7528\u672c\u8868\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u6570\u636e,\u52a1\u5fc5\u540c\u65f6\u6ce8\u660e\u539f\u59cb\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u672c\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90: \u7531\u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u6839\u636e\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\u6574\u7406\u3002\/ \u519c\u4e1a\u9ad8\u4ea7\u536b\u661f0\u6570\u636e\u6458\u81ea5\u4eba\u6c11\u65e5\u62a56 1958\u5e74 6\u6708~ 1960\u5e74 12\u6708; \/ \u52a0\u5165\u98df\u5802\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u91cd0\u4e3a 1959\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u6570\u636e, \u6765\u81ea5\u519c\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u5316\u91cd\u8981\u8d44\u6599\u6c47\u7f16: 1949-1957 (1990)\u4e2d\u592e\u515a\u6821\u51fa\u7248\u793e; \/ \u8d85\u989d\u5f81\u6536\u73870\u4e3a 1959~ 1961\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u5b57, \u6765\u81ea5\u519c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d44\u6599: 1949- 19836 ( 1983)\u519c\u7267\u6e14\u4e1a\u90e8\u8ba1\u5212\u53f8; \/ \u53f3\u6d3e0\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\/ \u5173\u4e8e\u53f3\u6d3e\u5206\u5b50\u6458\u5e3d\u5b50\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u62a5\u544a0 ( 1959), \u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u90e8\u7edf\u6218\u90e8; \u519c\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u793e\u8fdb\u5ea6\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f 1956\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u7684\u60c5\u51b5, \u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea Chung ( 2000)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5173\u4e8e\u9965\u8352\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6587\u732e\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u660e\u663e\u7684\u524d\u540e\u7ee7\u627f\u6027\u3002\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d,\u6587\u732e\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\u4e3b\u8981\u653e\u5728\u9965\u8352\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a,\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u5730\u65b9\u5dee\u5f02\u6765\u63ed\u793a\u9965\u8352\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u3002\u4eceFAD\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b,\u6587\u732e\u53d1\u73b0\u5929\u6c14\u3001\u516c\u5171\u98df\u5802\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u6d6a\u8d39\u3001\u6fc0\u52b1\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u9000\u51fa\u6743\u4e27\u5931\u4ee5\u53ca\u7cae\u98df\u8c03\u51fa\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u8db3\u7b49\u662f\u5f62\u6210\u9965\u8352\u7684\u56e0\u7d20;\u4ece\u201c\u6743\u5229\u201d\u89d2\u5ea6,\u6587\u732e\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u6709\u57ce\u5e02\u504f\u5411\u5236\u5ea6\u5bfc\u81f4\u519c\u6751\u5c45\u6c11\u4f59\u7cae\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u5bf9\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u6c72\u53d6\u3001\u7cae\u98df\u7684\u8fc7\u91cf\u5f81\u8d2d\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd0\u52a8\u671f\u95f4\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6c1b\u56f4\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7\u4e5f\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u5206\u914d\u4e0d\u516c\u3002\u5bf9\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\u89c1\u88684\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u540e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u7d22\u4f5c\u4e3a\u524d\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6fc0\u8fdb\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7814\u7a76\u5747\u91c7\u7528\u7701\u7ea7\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4f4d,\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u7701\u4e0e\u7701\u4e4b\u95f4\u9965\u8352\u548c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5df2\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u53d1\u73b0\u7701\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u540c\u6837\u663e\u8457,\u4f8b\u5982\u540c\u5904\u4e8e\u6cb3\u5357\u7701\u4e14\u5f7c\u6b64\u76f8\u90bb\u7684\u4e24\u53bf,\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u5dee\u522b\u8fbe10\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a(\u66f9\u6811\u57fa\u4e0e\u5ed6\u793c\u83b9,2010)\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u57fa\u4e8e\u7701\u7ea7\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u79cd\u7701\u5185\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u5f02,Bernstein(1984)\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e86\u7cae\u98df\u7edf\u8d2d\u548c\u9965\u8352\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb,\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u57fa\u5c42\u751f\u4ea7\u961f\u5e72\u90e8\u7684\u519c\u6c11\u8eab\u4efd\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u6267\u884c\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u504f\u8892\u519c\u6c11\u3002\u5728\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u5185,\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e72\u90e8\u7279\u8d28\u5177\u6709\u5730\u533a\u5dee\u5f02,\u65e0\u7591\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u9965\u8352\u6216\u8005\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5728\u57fa\u5c42\u51fa\u73b0\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002  <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/chinese\/files\/2025\/09\/post-720876-68b58bd279dcc.png\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<p style=\"font-size: 0.8em;color: #666;display: block;text-align: center;margin-bottom:32px; margin-top: -20px;line-height:22px;\">\u88684\uff1a\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5173\u4e8e\u9965\u8352\u6210\u56e0\u7684\u89c2\u70b9<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e94\u3001\u9965\u8352\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>(\u4e00)\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u5ea6\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u53e3\u65b9\u9762\u5165\u624b\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u6b21\u9965\u8352\u9020\u6210\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002Yang\u548cSu(1998)\u5c06\u9965\u8352\u548c1978\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u519c\u6751\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u9769\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u9996\u5148,\u9965\u8352\u4fc3\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5c061958\u5e74\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u5927\u516c\u793e\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u53d8\u4e3a\u201c<strong>\u4e09\u7ea7\u6240\u6709\u7ed3\u6784,\u751f\u4ea7\u961f\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840<\/strong>\u201d\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7,\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u81ea\u7559\u5730\u3001\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u88ab\u9ed8\u8bb8\u3002\u5176\u6b21,\u5728\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u901d\u4e16\u4e4b\u540e,\u4e2d\u592e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5bf9\u519c\u6751\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5206\u6b67,\u4e3a\u519c\u6751\u57fa\u5c42\u8fdb\u884c\u5236\u5ea6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u6700\u540e,\u9965\u8352\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u707e\u96be,\u4f7f\u5f97\u519c\u6c11\u548c\u5e72\u90e8\u9010\u6e10\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5927\u800c\u5168\u7684\u516c\u793e\u5236\u5ea6\u5185\u5728\u7684\u5f0a\u7aef\u3002\u5bf9\u5236\u5ea6\u504f\u597d\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u519c\u6c11\u6700\u7ec8\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u5730\u653e\u5f03\u4eba\u6c11\u516c\u793e\u5236\u5ea6\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u5bb6\u5ead\u8054\u4ea7\u627f\u5305\u8d23\u4efb\u5236\u3002Yang(1996)\u53d1\u73b0\u90a3\u4e9b\u906d\u53d7\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7701\u4efd\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u65e9\u63a8\u8fdb\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u7684\u7701\u4efd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kung\u548cBai(2010)\u7528\u66f4\u52a0\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6570\u636e\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\u9965\u8352\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0,\u4fc3\u6210\u516c\u793e\u5316\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u7406\u7531\u662f\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\u5730\u52a8\u5458\u519c\u6c11\u4ece\u4e8b\u519c\u7530\u6c34\u5229\u5efa\u8bbe\u4ee5\u62b5\u5fa1\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u540c\u6837\u89c2\u5bdf\u52301978\u5e74\u53bb\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u539f\u56e0\u5374\u662f\u5b89\u5fbd\u7701\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u65f1\u707e\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u540c\u6837\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u622a\u7136\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u9009\u62e9?\u8be5\u6587\u548cYang(1996)\u4e00\u6837,\u53d1\u73b0\u90a3\u4e9b\u9965\u8352\u8d8a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7701\u4efd\u5f00\u5c55\u53bb\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u8fd0\u52a8\u8d8a\u65e9\u3002\u540c\u65f6,\u9965\u8352\u5bf9\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53c8\u968f\u7740\u53bb\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u53d8\u5dee\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u3002\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u51b5\u8d8a\u5dee,\u519c\u6c11\u5bf9\u5229\u7528\u4eba\u6c11\u516c\u793e\u62b5\u5fa1\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5c31\u8d8a\u4e0d\u8db3,\u8fdb\u800c\u8d8a\u63a8\u52a8\u53bb\u96c6\u4f53\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u7684\u7740\u773c\u70b9\u5e76\u4e0d\u5355\u7eaf\u662f\u9965\u8352\u7814\u7a76,\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5177\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u4e14\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898:\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u53ca\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684?\u8be5\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5404\u4e2a\u7701\u4efd\u5f53\u5e74\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9965\u8352\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Yang(1996)\u3001Yang\u548cSu(1998)\u53caKung\u548cBai(2010)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63ed\u793a\u51fa\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8f6c\u53d8\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a81\u7136\u548c\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6,\u5176\u4e2d\u5b55\u80b2\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u53d1\u8f6b\u4e8e60\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u5e76\u4e14\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u7d2f\u79ef\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b,\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd0\u52a8\u548c\u5bf9\u707e\u540e\u7684\u53cd\u601d\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u7a81\u7834\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5185\u5728\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u548c\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>(\u4e8c)\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5229\u7528\u9965\u8352\u68c0\u9a8c\u707e\u5bb3\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd,\u4e25\u683c\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u5e94\u5f53\u4e0d\u88ab\u89c6\u4f5c\u9965\u8352\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u5185\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u662f\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898,\u800c\u975e\u9965\u8352\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3001\u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effect):<strong>\u90a3\u4e9b\u6700\u5f3a\u58ee\u7684\u4eba\u5e78\u5b58\u6982\u7387\u6700\u9ad8,\u56e0\u6b64\u76f4\u63a5\u7528\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u68c0\u9a8c\u9965\u8352\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u4f5c\u7528\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u8be5\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4f4e\u4f30(\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u7684\u4e0b\u9650)\u3002<\/strong>(6)\u7531\u4e8e\u9965\u8352\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6bd4\u5982\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ed3\u679c,\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u9965\u8352\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9965\u8352\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76,Chen\u548cZhou(2007)\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u9965\u8352\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u8eab\u9ad8\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<strong>\u8be5\u6587\u53d1\u73b01955\u30011957\u30011959\u30011960\u548c1962\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u5728\u8eab\u9ad8\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u53ca\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u5747\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u52a3\u52bf,\u5176\u4e2d1959\u30011960\u548c1962\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u52a3\u52bf\u6700\u4e3a\u660e\u663e<\/strong>:\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u975e\u9965\u8352\u65f6\u671f\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53,<strong>\u9965\u8352\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u5728\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e0a\u8981\u77ee3.03\u5398\u7c73<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u8bc6\u522b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a,\u8be5\u6587\u5229\u7528\u9965\u8352\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u51fa\u751f\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5,\u91c7\u7528\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u5206\u65b9\u6cd5(diference indifference,DID)\u68c0\u9a8c\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5f71\u54cd:\u5173\u952e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u6807\u8bc6\u51fa\u751f\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u54d1\u53d8\u91cf\u548c1960\u5e74\u7701\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u7684\u4e58\u79ef\u3002\u5728\u4f5c\u8005\u770b\u6765,\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u7701\u7684\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9965\u8352\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u53d8\u91cf\u5e76\u5177\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5916\u751f\u6027\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u95ee\u9898(1)\u548c\u95ee\u9898(2),\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a:\u7b2c\u4e00,\u571f\u6539\u4e4b\u540e\u5730\u4e3b\u548c\u5bcc\u519c\u9636\u7ea7\u88ab\u6d88\u706d,\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u4eba\u6c11\u516c\u793e\u65f6\u671f(1958~1962\u5e74)\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u4ea7\u6743\u88ab\u53d6\u6d88\u5e76\u5168\u90e8\u52a0\u5165\u516c\u793e\u4e14\u5931\u53bb\u9000\u51fa\u6743,\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6240\u6709\u5bb6\u5ead\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5747\u662f\u540c\u8d28\u7684,\u56e0\u6b64\u53cd\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u5f71\u54cd;\u7b2c\u4e8c,\u91c7\u7528DID\u65b9\u6cd5,\u5229\u7528\u5916\u751f\u7684\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u53d8\u91cf,\u8fdb\u800c\u89e3\u51b3\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91c7\u75282000\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e31%\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e,\u540c\u6837\u5c06\u5927\u9965\u8352\u89c6\u4f5c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c,Almond\u7b49(2008)\u53d1\u73b0<strong>\u9965\u8352\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u5728\u8bc6\u5b57\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u53ca\u5a5a\u59fb\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0a\u5747\u5904\u4e8e\u52a3\u52bf\u3002<\/strong>\u8be5\u53d1\u73b0\u88abBrandt\u7b49(2008)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5370\u8bc1\u3002\u540c\u65f6,<strong>\u9965\u8352\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u751f\u5973\u5b69\u7684\u6982\u7387,\u8be5\u4f5c\u7528\u5c06\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u4e24\u4ee3\u4eba:\u88ab\u9965\u8352\u76f4\u63a5\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u7236\u6bcd\u8f88\u548c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u5229\u7528\u9999\u6e2f\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e,\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u9999\u6e2f\u672c\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u548c\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5185\u5730\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u5b69\u5b50,\u53d1\u73b0\u540e\u8005\u5728\u51fa\u751f\u65f6\u4f53\u91cd\u8f7b\u800c\u4e14\u5973\u5b69\u6bd4\u91cd\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u548cFung(2009a\u3001b)\u53caKmi\u548cFle isher(2010)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Girgens\u7b49(2011)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5e78\u5b58\u7fa4\u4f53\u548c\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u9965\u8352\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u5728\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6548\u7528(\u5728\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u770b\u6765,\u672a\u6765\u8eab\u4f53\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u5728\u9965\u8352\u4e2d\u751f\u5b58\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u8f83\u9ad8)\u5bf9\u9965\u8352\u9020\u6210\u7684\u53d1\u80b2\u8fdf\u7f13\u4f5c\u7528(stunting effect)\u7684\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5982\u679c\u8981\u8bc6\u522b\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u6548\u679c,\u5fc5\u987b\u63a7\u5236\u4f4f\u9965\u8352\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6548\u679c\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a,\u51b3\u5b9a\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u9965\u8352\u4e2d\u5e78\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u9057\u4f20\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a,\u53ea\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5b69\u5b50\u7684\u7279\u8d28\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d88\u9664\u9965\u8352\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6548\u679c,\u4ece\u800c\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u9965\u8352\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u6548\u679c(\u8be5\u6587\u5904\u7406\u7684\u662f\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u95ee\u98985)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Meng\u548cQian(2009)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0<strong>\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u9965\u8352\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53,\u90a3\u4e9b\u80ce\u513f\u6216\u8005\u5e7c\u513f\u65f6\u671f\u906d\u53d7\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u5728\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e0a\u8981\u77ee2.8\u5398\u7c73,\u4f53\u91cd\u8f7b1.4\u516c\u65a4,\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u5c110.6\u5e74\u3002<\/strong>\u4ece\u8bc6\u522b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a,\u8be5\u6587\u4e3b\u8981\u9488\u5bf9\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898:\u7b2c\u4e00,\u9965\u8352\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u504f\u8bef\u3002\u5982\u679c\u504f\u8bef\u968f\u673a\u5206\u5e03,\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u9965\u8352\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c,\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u968f\u673a,\u9965\u8352\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5728\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0d\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u9965\u8352\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u865a\u5047\u7684,\u80cc\u540e\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u51fa\u751f\u5730\u533a\u7e41\u8363\u4e0e\u5426\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u514b\u670d\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898,\u4f5c\u8005\u4f9d\u9760\u4e24\u4e2a\u6bd4\u8f83\u5916\u751f\u53d8\u91cf,1997\u5e74\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u73af\u5883\u548c\u64ad\u79cd\u9762\u79ef\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u51fa\u751f\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02(\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u5e74\u9f84\u8d8a\u5c0f,\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8d8a\u5927)\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9965\u8352\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6765\u81ea\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587,\u5728\u90a3\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u4f5c\u8005\u53d1\u73b0<strong>\u4ea7\u7cae\u533a\u906d\u53d7\u9965\u8352\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u4e25\u91cd<\/strong>(Mengeta.l,2010)\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09,\u9965\u8352\u5bf9\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u6548\u7528,\u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u8be5\u6548\u7528\u4f1a\u4f4e\u4f30\u9965\u8352\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898,\u4f5c\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u53bf\u7ea7\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u9965\u8352\u671f\u95f4\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u89c4\u6a21\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u9965\u8352\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u514b\u670d\u9965\u8352\u5bf9\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6548\u7528,\u8be5\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5(quantiles 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