Berkeley Lab researchers Nan Zhou, David Fridley, Michael McNeil, Nina Zheng, and Jing Ke co-authored the report with Levine. Their study is a \u201cscenario analysis\u201d that forecasts two possible energy futures for China, one an \u201caccelerated improvement scenario\u201d that assumes success for a very aggressive effort to improve energy efficiency, the other a more conservative \u201ccontinued improvement scenario\u201d that meets less ambitious targets. Yet both of these scenarios, at a different pace, show similar moderation effects and a flattening of energy consumption well before 2050.<\/p>\n
Under the more aggressive scenario, energy consumption begins to flatten in 2025, just 14 years from now. The more conservative scenario sees energy consumption rates beginning to taper in 2030. By the mid-century mark, energy consumption under the \u201caccelerated improvement scenario\u201d will be 20 percent below that of the other.<\/p>\n
Scenario analysis is also used in more conventional forecasts, but these are typically based on macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product and population growth. Such scenarios are developed \u201cwithout reference to saturation, efficiency, or usage of energy-using devices, e.g., air conditioners,\u2019\u2019 says the Berkeley Lab report. \u201cFor energy analysts and policymakers, this is a serious omission, in some cases calling into question the very meaning of the scenarios.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n
The new Berkeley Lab forecast also uses the two scenarios to examine CO2<\/sustrong> emissions anticipated through 2050. Under the more aggressive scenario, China\u2019s emissions of the greenhouse gas are predicted to peak in 2027 at 9.7 billion metric tons. From then on, they will fall significantly, to about 7 billion metric tons by 2050. Under the more conservative scenario, CO2<\/sustrong> emissions will reach a plateau of 12 billion metric tons by 2033, and then trail down to 11 billion metric tons at mid-century.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A new study done by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory says that carbon emissions and energy for the U.S. and China will peak and level off in the 2030s. From Reuters: The forecasts, particularly for China, contradict widespread predictions that China’s energy use and emissions would continue to soar until at least mid-century. Still, both […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":88,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[116,132,5],"tags":[2096,5784],"class_list":["post-120740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-world","category-environmental-crisis","category-society","tag-energy-demand","tag-greenhouse-gas-emissions","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"\n
U.S., China Energy Use Predicted to Flatten in Coming Decades<\/title>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n