{"id":170048,"date":"2014-03-10T16:48:38","date_gmt":"2014-03-10T23:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/?p=170048"},"modified":"2021-09-14T21:21:20","modified_gmt":"2021-09-15T04:21:20","slug":"lifes-guarantee-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2014\/03\/lifes-guarantee-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Death, Taxes, and 7.5% G.D.P. Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Following\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2014\/03\/flexible-growth-target-signal-end-gdp-worship\/\">Premier\u00a0Li Keqiang&#8217;s economic report at the\u00a0Two Sessions\u00a0meeting<\/a>,\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com\/2014\/03\/10\/lifes-guarantees-death-taxes-and-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth\/?_php=true&amp;_type=blogs&amp;_php=true&amp;_type=blogs&amp;smid=tw-share&amp;_r=1\">Song Li, an economic researcher affiliated with China\u2019s National Development and Reform Commission, announced that\u00a0\u201cthe expected target of about 7.5 percent growth this year is guaranteed&#8221;<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0due to the &#8220;reform dividend&#8221; generated by the Third Plenum&#8217;s\u00a0economic reform measures. The New York Times&#8217; Michael Forsythe reports:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Prime Minister Li Keqiang announced last week at the opening of the annual session of China\u2019s National People\u2019s Congress that the country\u2019s goal for growth was \u201caround\u2019\u2019 7.5 percent this year, the same as last year but lower than past targets of 8 percent annual growth. But he did not guarantee that number, saying it would take \u201carduous efforts\u201d to meet it, and blaming China\u2019s past growth-at-any-cost model of \u201cinefficient and blind development\u201d for the country\u2019s heavy air pollution.<\/p>\n<p>[&#8230;]\u00a0\u201cWhile it\u2019s clear this government wants to deliver meaningful reforms, whether we get a \u2018reform dividend\u2019 in 2014 is an open question,\u2019\u2019 Mr. Green said in an email. \u201cIn contrast, slowing credit growth is going to drag, and the domestic housing market recovery appears to be easing. So it will be tough to hit 7.5% in reality, I think.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Mr. Song\u2019s analysis rings of a mindset that Mr. Li has said he is committed to ending: the push for growth above all else that has helped stoke local debts, wasteful spending and heavy smog. For years, officials at all levels of government followed the mantra\u00a0\u201cprotect the eight\u201d\u00a0(bao ba), which meant doing what it took to make sure the government met its 8 percent growth target. That was the minimum level seen as necessary to create enough jobs for the tens of millions of people migrating from the countryside to the cities and to keep social unrest in check. [<a href=\"http:\/\/sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com\/2014\/03\/10\/lifes-guarantees-death-taxes-and-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth\/?_php=true&amp;_type=blogs&amp;_php=true&amp;_type=blogs&amp;smid=tw-share&amp;_r=1\"><strong>Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>CKGSB finance Professor\u00a0Mei Jianping writes that a\u00a0GDP target of 7.5 percent &#8220;may be possible&#8221; but <a href=\"http:\/\/usa.chinadaily.com.cn\/epaper\/2014-03\/10\/content_17335529.htm\"><strong>a more sustainable model of economic growth will be required for the years ahead<\/strong><\/a>. From China Daily:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>China is at a &#8220;crossroads&#8221; in its economic development, Mei said on Thursday, where quantity of growth is overemphasized compared to quality of growth. Of the major drivers of economic development, China is exhausting labor input and investment, which is a model that &#8220;can&#8217;t go on forever.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In contrast to the US, whose growth is sustained by more efficient use of resources, there is a limit to how much longer China can rely on labor and investment, he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You can see that there are a lot of indications that China has negative resource efficiency, because China right now is using 45 percent of the world&#8217;s resources, but only produces 12 percent of the world&#8217;s GDP,&#8221; Mei explained.<\/p>\n<p>[&#8230;]\u00a0&#8220;For the last 30 years, China has been eating up a lot of capital, but it never seriously goes to the restroom. So one of the most amazing characteristic is the US system was the financial crisis. It&#8217;s bad, but it&#8217;s like somebody going to the restroom. You take a break and get rid of the excesses, then you become healthy. China hasn&#8217;t had a chance to do that,&#8221; he said.\u00a0[<a href=\"http:\/\/usa.chinadaily.com.cn\/epaper\/2014-03\/10\/content_17335529.htm\"><strong>Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Following\u00a0Premier\u00a0Li Keqiang&#8217;s economic report at the\u00a0Two Sessions\u00a0meeting,\u00a0Song Li, an economic researcher affiliated with China\u2019s National Development and Reform Commission, announced that\u00a0\u201cthe expected target of about 7.5 percent growth this year is guaranteed&#8221;\u00a0due to the &#8220;reform dividend&#8221; generated by the Third Plenum&#8217;s\u00a0economic reform measures. The New York Times&#8217; Michael Forsythe reports: Prime Minister Li Keqiang announced [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1088,"featured_media":170049,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2,14744,14745,14746,1051],"tags":[134,1317,1049,5940,5526,4614],"class_list":["post-170048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-level-2-article","category-level-3-article","category-level-4-article","category-top-article","tag-economic-growth","tag-economic-growth-rates","tag-economic-reform","tag-gdp","tag-li-keqiang","tag-two-sessions","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.9 (Yoast SEO v23.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Death, Taxes, and 7.5% G.D.P. Growth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2014\/03\/lifes-guarantee-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Death, Taxes, and 7.5% G.D.P. Growth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Following\u00a0Premier\u00a0Li Keqiang&#8217;s economic report at the\u00a0Two Sessions\u00a0meeting,\u00a0Song Li, an economic researcher affiliated with China\u2019s National Development and Reform Commission, announced that\u00a0\u201cthe expected target of about 7.5 percent growth this year is guaranteed&#8221;\u00a0due to the &#8220;reform dividend&#8221; generated by the Third Plenum&#8217;s\u00a0economic reform measures. The New York Times&#8217; Michael Forsythe reports: Prime Minister Li Keqiang announced [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2014\/03\/lifes-guarantee-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Digital Times (CDT)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ChinaDigitalTimes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-03-10T23:48:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-09-15T04:21:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/ren.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"592\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"395\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Grace\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cdt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cdt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Grace\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2014\/03\/lifes-guarantee-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2014\/03\/lifes-guarantee-7-5-chinese-g-d-p-growth\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Grace\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/#\/schema\/person\/c528efa816f4f8e766bc112a5d478256\"},\"headline\":\"Death, Taxes, and 7.5% G.D.P. 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