{"id":230290,"date":"2021-04-15T16:20:15","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T23:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/?p=230290"},"modified":"2022-09-09T18:17:06","modified_gmt":"2022-09-10T01:17:06","slug":"taiwan-under-threat-but-is-war-really-imminent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2021\/04\/taiwan-under-threat-but-is-war-really-imminent\/","title":{"rendered":"Taiwan Under Threat\u2026 But Is War Really Imminent?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In response to the Biden administration\u2019s diplomatic overtures to Taiwan, the Chinese People\u2019s Liberation Army Air Force made repeated incursions into Taiwanese airspace, raising hackles across both the Strait and the Pacific. The tensions began last week after the State Department relaxed rules limiting official visits to Taiwan\u2014a policy first implemented by Trump-era Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, but initially ignored by the Biden team. At The Financial Times, Demetri Sevastopulo wrote about what the new regulations mean for how American officials can, and cannot, engage with Taiwan<\/strong><\/a>:<\/p>\n

Under the new guidelines, US officials will be able to regularly host Taiwanese officials at federal government buildings. They will also be permitted to meet their counterparts at Taiwan\u2019s economic and cultural offices, which serve as de facto embassies and consulates.<\/p>\n

US officials will also be able to attend events at Twin Oaks, a 17-acre estate in Washington that served as the residence of the Republic of China (Taiwan) ambassador until the US switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing.<\/p>\n

But the US official said there would still be some \u201cguard rails\u201d, such as not allowing officials to attend functions at Twin Oaks on major Taiwanese holidays that might complicate the One China policy. Another will be a prohibition on displaying the Taiwanese flag when US officials meet their counterparts. [Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Although Chinese military pressure on Taiwan is not new \u2014warplanes simulated an attack on a U.S. aircraft carrier near Taiwan in the early days of the Biden administration<\/a>\u2014the size and frequency of the recent incursions are unprecedented. After the announcement, the Chinese military flew \u201c14 J-16 and four J-10 fighters[\u2026] four H-6K bombers, which can carry nuclear weapons, two anti-submarine aircraft and an early warning aircraft\u201d over Taiwan, according to Al Jazeera<\/a>. Afterwards, a spokesman for China\u2019s Taiwan Affairs Office called the flights \u201ccombat exercises,\u201d adding that “It is a solemn response to external forces’ interference and provocations by Taiwan independence,\u201d according to Reuters<\/a>. In what it deemed to be a \u201croutine\u2026 transit,\u201d the United States deployed an aircraft carrier to the Taiwan Strait<\/a>, an action which the Chinese government claimed \u201cwillfully disrupted the regional situation.\u201d The following day, the Chinese navy deployed the Liaoning<\/a>, the country\u2019s first aircraft carrier, to the Strait as well. The maneuvering was accompanied by social media posturing: Chinese state media released a number of fighter jet videos<\/a> and the United States Navy released a photograph<\/a> of two officers nonchalantly observing a Chinese carrier across the water. Despite the martial buildup, war remains unlikely<\/strong><\/a> reported Erin Hale for Al Jazeera:<\/p>\n

\u201cThis challenge is nothing new. Rather, it reflects an updated threat perception of the CCP and PLA in the context of US strategic competition with China,\u201d [said Eric Lee, a research associate at the Project 2049 Institute in Arlington, Virginia.]<\/p>\n

[\u2026 An invasion of Taiwan carries significant risks for China.] First, its forces would have to cross the 180km (100-mile) Taiwan Strait with more than 100,000 soldiers and supplies, according to Michael Tsai, who served as Taiwan\u2019s vice minister of defence and then minister of defence between 2004 and 2008.<\/p>\n

En route, they would face aerial and naval bombardment and, if they managed to land, strong local resistance.<\/p>\n

[\u2026] For Taiwan expert and historian Bill Sharp, a former visiting scholar at National Taiwan University, such a manoeuvre would be \u201cmore difficult than a D-Day Landing\u201d due to Taiwan\u2019s geography, rough waters, and unreliable weather patterns. Its coastline also offers few suitable beaches, he said, for landing \u201carmoured personnel carriers, tanks, artillery, or large numbers of invading troops.\u201d [Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n

There\u2019s a rather anxious, thousand person room on Clubhouse with Hong Kongers, Taiwanese, and Chinese \u2014 flipping between Mandarin and Cantonese \u2014 discussing whether\/when China will invade Taiwan. \ud83d\ude2c<\/p>\n

— Melissa Chan (@melissakchan) April 10, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n