{"id":238666,"date":"2022-03-09T19:54:32","date_gmt":"2022-03-10T03:54:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/?p=238666"},"modified":"2022-04-12T15:29:59","modified_gmt":"2022-04-12T22:29:59","slug":"chinas-silence-on-ukraine-and-europes-resolve-could-remake-sino-eu-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2022\/03\/chinas-silence-on-ukraine-and-europes-resolve-could-remake-sino-eu-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s Silence on Ukraine and Europe’s Resolve Could Remake Sino-EU Relations"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a <\/span>video meeting<\/span><\/a> with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, Xi Jinping urged his French and German counterparts to pursue \u201c<\/span>maximum restraint<\/span><\/a>\u201d in responding to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. The war has forced Beijing into an <\/span>awkward position<\/span><\/a> of hedging between Europe and Russia in an attempt to maintain positive relations with each. But <\/span>China\u2019s reluctance to condemn Russia\u2019s interference in Ukrainian sovereignty<\/span><\/a>, even as the war drags into its third week, has not gone unnoticed in Europe, and appears to have strained Europe-China relations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Finbarr Bermingham at the South China Morning Post described how <\/span>European rage at Russia has fueled suspicion towards China from across the spectrum<\/strong><\/a>:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe world just seems a totally different place than what we thought it was a week ago,\u201d said Pascal Abb, a professor specialising in Chinese foreign policy at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s going to have repercussions beyond this question of how to deal with Russia. It is definitely going to shape our policies towards China as well.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

[…] \u201cChina is calling for de-escalation and dialogue, but has avoided taking sides and will not call Russia\u2019s actions what they are \u2013 unprovoked aggression,\u201d said [Nabila Massrali, EU foreign affairs spokeswoman].<\/span><\/p>\n

[…] \u201cWe have zero expectation of China to deliver on this [diplomatic effort to end the war]. Everything we learned in the last few years through Covid and wider relations means we don\u2019t trust China. And China should be worried, we\u2019ve proven we can move fast. After this crisis, there will be more and more suspicion,\u201d [an anonymous Western European diplomat] said.<\/span><\/p>\n

[…] \u201cXi Jinping should use his leverage vis-a-vis Putin to help stopping this war of aggression. Nations are coming together globally to oppose Putin\u2019s war. China should not be on the wrong side of history. Europe will not forget China\u2019s choice,\u201d said [German lawmaker Reinhard Buetikofer]. [<\/span>Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Leaked censorship instructions<\/span><\/a> from the Cyberspace Administration of China have directed internet companies covering the war to strictly control \u201cincitement of Sino-Russian antagonism\u201d or \u201cviewpoints that support or adulate the United States.\u201d Another <\/span>internal censorship memo leaked from a corporate news outlet<\/span><\/a> directed staff to \u201cnot post anything unfavorable to Russia or pro-Western.\u201d Chris Buckley and Steven Lee Myers from The New York Times reported that <\/span>some Europeans see China as having already chosen sides against them<\/strong><\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s efforts to distance itself from Russia have come too late, said [Sergiy Gerasymchuk, an analyst with Ukrainian Prism, a foreign policy research organization in Kyiv]. He said China would wait to see who prevailed in the war and seek to improve relations with the winner.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cMany decision makers in China began to perceive relations in black and white: either you are a Chinese ally or an American one,\u201d said Mr. Gerasymchuk, who has been spending nights in a bomb shelter. \u201cThey still want to remain sort of neutral, but they bitterly failed.\u201d [<\/span>Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Xue Qing in The Diplomat argued that <\/span>China\u2019s stance will lead to a deterioration of diplomatic ties with Europe in the future<\/strong><\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n

China has always been aware that siding with Russia is not wise, especially in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a region once oppressed by the Russians. Facing the invasion in Ukraine, even the most pro-Kremlin politicians in CEE have turned to condemnation of Russia. China\u2019s lukewarm statements and onlooker role clearly cannot satisfy the CEE governments and publics. Beijing should not be surprised if more of them announce withdrawal from the \u201c17+1\u201d mechanism, China\u2019s platform for CEE cooperation, and turn to Taiwan for closer ties this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

China claims that it is a responsible major power and strives to foster global peace and development; however in the face of aggression, it has been trying to stay detached. European leaders now have reasons to doubt China\u2019s capability to tackle tough international challenges and the credibility of its commitments.\u00a0 […] [With] China-Europe relations already facing such severe challenges, any more challenges will make the already precarious trust frailer, and efforts to improve bilateral relations more difficult.<\/span><\/p>\n

The China-Europe relationship is now being sorely tested by the Russia-Ukraine war. […] [If] China continues to blur its stance and merely watches from the sidelines, Beijing will harvest Russians\u2019 fraternal friendship for sure, but it will also encounter more suspicious and hostile eyes from Europe. [<\/span>Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In his \u201cWatching China in Europe\u201d newsletter, Noah Barkin, a senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund and managing editor at Rhodium Group, described how a <\/span>shift in Germany\u2019s and the EU\u2019s grand strategy may put China under greater scrutiny<\/strong><\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n

[T]here is no question that the conflict and the joint China-Russia declaration of February 4 have strengthened those in Europe who frame the coming geopolitical challenge as one of systemic competition between democracies and authoritarian states. As a second German official put it to me: \u201cToday it\u2019s Russia. Tomorrow it could be China. We can\u2019t be na\u00efve any longer. We need to say goodbye to our old model. It worked for a long time. But not anymore.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

[…] The current crisis comes at a time when the European Commission is putting the finishing touches on its Strategic Compass, NATO is working on its Strategic Concept, and the new government in Berlin is embarking on the process of writing a National Security Strategy and a China strategy. All of these strategic documents will be seen in a new light now. The historic policy shifts in Germany in response to Ukraine will resonate across Europe and NATO\u2014and the relationship with China will not be immune.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

[…] A second consequence of this crisis will be a renewed focus on strategic dependencies. In the span of a few weeks, Europe has taken the decision to end its reliance on Russian gas. The next step will be to broaden the dependencies debate to focus on Europe\u2019s vulnerabilities in relation to China.<\/span><\/p>\n

[…] In formulating its China strategy, I am told, Germany\u2019s government could look for ways to address these risks through a combination of carrots and sticks: targeted government incentives for companies to invest in other markets and tighter restrictions on technology transfers, including through export controls and heightened scrutiny of research and development collaboration. [<\/span>Source<\/strong><\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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A confidential report from the German embassy in Beijing urges the GIZ development agency to take a new approach w\/China: \u201cWhereas in the past the PRC was seen primarily as a partner, it has long turned into a serious economic competitor and increasingly also a systemic rival\u201d \ud83d\udc47 https:\/\/t.co\/PzAW94NM7m<\/a><\/p>\n

— Noah Barkin \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@noahbarkin) March 9, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n