{"id":697070,"date":"2024-02-01T21:19:06","date_gmt":"2024-02-02T05:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/?p=697070"},"modified":"2024-02-06T16:44:16","modified_gmt":"2024-02-07T00:44:16","slug":"2016-article-predicting-that-china-will-be-high-income-by-2024-deleted-from-peoples-daily-online","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinadigitaltimes.net\/2024\/02\/2016-article-predicting-that-china-will-be-high-income-by-2024-deleted-from-peoples-daily-online\/","title":{"rendered":"2016 Article Predicting That China Will Be \u201cHigh-Income\u201d by 2024 Deleted from People\u2019s Daily Online"},"content":{"rendered":"
A 2016 People\u2019s Daily article predicting that China would enter the club of \u201chigh-income\u201d nations by 2024 was recently deleted from People\u2019s Daily Online. The deletion was likely due to the article being \u201c<\/span>maliciously<\/span><\/a> reposted\u201d by a Weibo user, who prefaced it with the sardonic comment, \u201cI found something to brighten up my Lunar New Year\u2019s celebration \u2026.\u201d Before the article was censored, it was widely shared online and drew a bevy of similarly withering comments. CDT editors have <\/span>archived a copy of the article<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>republished it in full<\/span><\/a>, along with a selection of comments from Weibo users.<\/span><\/p>\n Titled \u201cChina is Expected to Enter Its \u2018High-Income Phase\u2019 in 2024,\u201d the article was written by <\/span>economist Zheng Bingwen (\u90d1\u79c9\u6587)<\/span><\/a>, director of the Centre for International Social Security Studies (CISS) at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), who specializes in studying market failures in Western economies, national innovation, and social security systems, among other topics. The text itself is not particularly controversial: it describes the challenge of avoiding the \u201c<\/span>middle-income trap<\/span><\/a>\u201d as China moves from an \u201cupper-middle-income economy\u201d to an \u201cupper-income economy\u201d (<\/span>as defined by the World Bank<\/span><\/a>). Zheng recounts the experiences of other countries that have managed to leapfrog\u00a0 the \u201cmiddle-income trap,\u201d and recommends three measures to smooth the transition: improve total factor productivity, continue opening up to the outside world, and implement a market economy. Interestingly, the author cites the experiences of the “<\/span>four Asian tigers<\/span><\/a>“\u2014 the high-growth economies of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea. But Zheng also cautions that simply entering the ranks of upper-income countries is not the same as being a \u201cdeveloped nation,\u201d and writes that <\/span>even after China attains upper-income status, it should still be considered a \u201cmoderately developed nation\u201d<\/strong><\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n After crossing the high-income threshold, China will transition to being a \u201cmoderately developed nation\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n After decades of sustained and rapid development, we have ample confidence in the future: barring any major political upheavals, devastating blows to the economy, or institutional or systemic collapse, there is little doubt that in another six or seven years, China will have successfully leapfrogged over the \u201cmiddle-income trap.\u201d By then, the <\/span>First Centenary Goal<\/span><\/a>\u2014building a moderately prosperous society in all respects\u2014will have been achieved.<\/span> [<\/span>Chinese<\/strong><\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n In the interim between the publication and the censorship of this article, China did of course suffer devastating economic blows and systemic discontinuities due to the global pandemic, three years of inflexible domestic \u201czero-COVID\u201d policies, and precipitous drops in trade, tourism, manufacturing, and other forms of economic activity. Even since COVID controls were lifted, CDT editors have noted <\/span>an uptick in the censorship of <\/span>frank articles and discussion about the economy<\/span><\/a>, amid concerns about China\u2019s <\/span>fragile economic recovery<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>troubled property market<\/span><\/a>, and <\/span>moribund stock market<\/span><\/a>. And just as Zheng Bingwen\u2019s slightly outdated and relatively innocuous People\u2019s Daily article was being censored, that same news outlet was publishing effusive coverage of a Politburo study session on \u201c<\/span>new productive forces<\/span><\/a>\u201d (\u65b0\u8d28\u751f\u4ea7\u529b, <\/span>x\u012bn zh\u00ec sh\u0113ngch\u01cenl\u00ec<\/span><\/em>) and promoting a series of articles on <\/span>key concepts from the Central Economic Work Conference<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n In some ways, Zheng\u2019s article was not too far off the mark. As of 2024, China is considered by the World Bank to be an upper-middle-income economy, denoting a <\/span>Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of between <\/span>$4,466 and $13,845 U.S. dollars. (World Bank figures for 2022 peg <\/span>China\u2019s GNI per capita at $12,850<\/span><\/a>, and high-income economies are classified as having a GNI per capita of $13,846 or more.)\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n But it is telling that many Chinese workers of all ages have not regained their confidence in the economy, and do not feel better off than they were several years ago. As reflected in many of the Weibo comments about the People\u2019s Daily article, a sense of disaffectedness prevails. Youth unemployment, for example, is so high that for a time, <\/span>China\u2019s National Bureau of Statistics stopped publishing statistics on it<\/span><\/a>. When the statistics reappeared this month, under a puzzling new methodology, youth unemployment figures appeared to have \u201c<\/span>miraculously\u201d improved<\/span><\/a>. Young workers continue to face employment challenges, fueling bleak memes such as the impoverished scholar \u201c<\/span>Kong Yiji<\/span><\/a>,\u201d the oft-harvested \u201c<\/span>cut chives<\/span><\/a>,\u201d and the resource-exhausted \u201c<\/span>huminerals<\/span><\/a>.\u201d Such pessimism, along with social and demographic changes, has led to a <\/span>falling birthrate<\/span><\/a>, with many women and young couples remaining reluctant to have children, unmoved by <\/span>local government incentives to encourage more births<\/span><\/a>, and professing a willingness to be the \u201c<\/span>last generation<\/span><\/a>,\u201d if it comes to that. [For more background on terms such as “Kong Yiji,” “cut chives,” “huminerals,” “the last generation,” “driving in reverse,” and many more, please see our new ebook, “China Digital Times Lexicon, 20th Anniversary Edition<\/a>.”]<\/span><\/p>\n CDT editors have selected and translated some of the <\/span>Weibo comments on the re-posted (and later censored) 2016 article<\/strong><\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n ic\u8717\u725b\u4e5f\u662f\u725b\uff1a<\/span>Housing\u2019s collapsed, stocks have collapsed, but incomes have increased.<\/span><\/p>\n \u901a\u6d32\u63a2\u82b1\uff1a<\/span>Does this \u201chigh-income\u201d bracket include personal income?<\/span><\/p>\n Cor-Universe\uff1a<\/span>Just look at this pie, getting bigger and bigger.<\/span><\/p>\n i\u6211\u662f\u4e00\u5934\u732a\uff1a<\/span>The good days are behind us, that\u2019s for sure.<\/span><\/p>\n 8\u5e26\u523a\u76845\u73ab\u74708\uff1a<\/span>If you never become middle-income, how can you get caught in a \u201cmiddle-income trap\u201d?<\/span><\/p>\n \u4f4e\u8c03\u7684\u6e7f\u6ed1\uff1a<\/span>No matter how impoverished you are, the National Bureau of Statistics will help to overstate your income.<\/span><\/p>\n \u704c\u8f38\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u53d7\u5bb3\u8005\uff1a<\/span>So poverty was eradicated years ago?<\/span><\/p>\n \u53f2\u80432020\uff1a<\/span>This \u201chigh-income\u201d thing is real, but you and I have no share in it.<\/span><\/p>\n 6kj6a0dj0yce16p\uff1a<\/span>If you can\u2019t meet the threshold, why not just lower it? Reclassify everyone with incomes above 1000 yuan as \u201chigh-income population.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n excited404\uff1a<\/span>Isn\u2019t China currently caught in the \u201cmiddle-income trap\u201d right now?<\/span><\/p>\n Wngjil908981589\uff1a<\/span>Eight years ago, the People\u2019s Daily couldn\u2019t have known that the \u201c<\/span>driving-in-reverse Emperor<\/span><\/a>\u201d would throw the car into reverse and put the pedal to the metal.<\/span><\/p>\n