译者 道势资本
President Obama weighed in on the dispute over the correct exchange rate of the Chinese renminbi during last week’s trip to Asia, saying “enough is enough” in regard to China’s policy of slow currency appreciation against the dollar.
在上周亚洲之行中就人民币恰当汇率水平之争，针对中国人民币兑美元缓步升值政策，
奥巴马总统称：“受够了。”
But despite Obama’s strong words, currency strategists say that very slow appreciation is likely as the Chinese government deals with a slowdown in the economy. A key factor will be what happens with inflation.
尽管奥巴马措词强硬，但是货币策略分析师称，人民币缓步升值政策乃是中国政府应对经济减速的措施，通胀水平趋向是关键因素。
Daniel Hui, senior currency strategist at HSBC Holdings in Hong Kong, says says two groups within the Chinese government are arguing over the exchange rate. One is the People’s Bank of China, which wants a more flexible rate and more-liberalized markets, and the other is the export lobby’s supporters, who favor a cheaper renminbi.
汇丰银行驻香港货币策略分析师丹尼尔•辉说，中国政府内部有两派在争论人民币汇率水平。一派是央行，希望更富弹性的汇率和更自由的市场。另一派是出口游说团体的支持者，偏好更便宜的汇率。
“At times when there is more inflation pressure, the politburo is primarily concerned about inflation,” Hui says. “That’s when those arguing for more flexibility tend to win out.”
“当前通胀压力较大，中央政治局主要关注通胀水平。”辉说，“因此期望汇率更富弹性的一方胜出。”
In fact, inflation in China has slowed recently. The country reported that its consumer price index rose 5.5 percent on an annualized basis in October, down from 6.1 percent in September. Food prices, which have been a matter of concern for Chinese authorities, rose 11.9 percent on an annualized basis, down from 13.4 percent a month earlier.
实际上最近通胀水平已经缓慢下降。据官方报告十月份CPI同比上涨5.5%，比九月份的6.1%已经降低了。政府高层关注的食品价格同比上涨11.9%，相比早些时候的13.4%也已下降。
The renminbi, currently trading at about 6.32 to the dollar, has appreciated about 5 percent so far this year.
当前人民币兑美元汇率为6.32，今年以来升值5%.
Robert Minikin, senior foreign exchange analyst at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong, expects the slow appreciation to continue through the end of next year.
香港渣打银行外汇分析师罗伯特•米尼金预计直到明年年底人民币汇率将继续缓慢升值。
“Our view is that there may be upward pressure on the dollar, but further out we still expect the dollar to weaken and the renminbi to appreciate all the way through next year,” Minikin says.
米尼金说：“我们认为美元可能有上行压力，但从长期看我们依然预计美元将会走弱，因此来年人民币会一直升值。”
He notes that the renminbi, which tends to increase rapidly after international events such as the recent Group of 20 meeting and the summit of Asian leaders in Bali, could be vulnerable to short-term weakening because of deterioration China’s balance of payments caused by a slowdown in exports.
他指出，在诸如G20峰会和巴厘岛东亚峰会这类国际事件之后人民币迅速蹿升的势头将会因为由出口下滑导致的国际收支平衡恶化而减弱。
“I think that argues for some rebound in the dollar in the short term, even as we expect the renminbi to appreciate in the medium term,” Minikin says.
米尼金说：“正如我们预料人民币将会升值至合适区间一样，我们认为短期内美元会有反弹。”
Some investors predict that China will cut interest rates in an effort to boost its economy because exports have slowed to both Europe and the U.S., where the economies are relatively anemic.
某些投资者预测由于欧美出口下滑，经济相当脆弱，中国将降息以刺激经济。
There even have been some calls for China to devalue the renminbi because of capital outflows. Fan Jianping, chief economist at the State Information Center, a Chinese government think tank, says Beijing should let the renminbi weaken because other emerging-markets currencies have fallen.
甚至有人呼吁中国让人民币贬值，原因是资本外流。中国官方智囊团国家信息中心首席经济学家范剑平称中国应当让人民币走弱，因为其他新兴市场国家货币已经在贬值。
Fan says capital outflows have already caused big depreciations in places like Russia and Brazil. “If we also face similar outflows, then we should have the conditions for depreciation,” he says. Chinese foreign exchange reserves declined by $61 billion in September, though they are still a very high $3 trillion.
范称资本外流已经让俄罗斯和巴西货币大幅贬值。他说，“如果我们也同样面临资本外流人民币当然应该贬值。”九月份中国新增外汇储备减至610亿元，不过总数依然有3万亿之巨。
HSBC’s Hui says he doubts the Chinese will pursue a devaluation because the country “will lose a lot if they deliberately destabilize the currency market.” Not only are offshore investors long the renminbi, he says, but domestic Chinese investors also believe the currency is on a course for slow appreciation, and a devaluation would be destabilizing at home too.
汇丰银行的辉称，他质疑中国让人民币贬值的说法，因为“如果他们蓄意破坏人民币汇率的稳定性”则国家“将损失巨大”。他说，不但海外投资者做多人民币，就是国内投资者也相信人民币会缓慢升值，如果贬值那将是破坏性的。
According to Hui, Chinese officials no longer believe the renminbi is greatly undervalued. However, U.S. officials and academics believe it is undervalued by as much as 40 percent.
据辉看来，中国官方不再认为人民币被严重低估。然而，美国官方和学术界认为人民币汇率低估程度多达40%。
本文由自动聚合程序取自网络，内容和观点不代表数字时代立场
