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来源In China, Kim Jong Il studies the reforms he’s spent decades resisting
译者fanhongling
In China, Kim Jong Il studies the reforms he’s spent decades resisting
在中国，金正日考察他数十年来拒绝的改革
TOKYO
— North Korea’s leader traveled through China this week to observe the very economic reforms that he has resisted for decades. Chauffeured in an armored train and convoy of black Audi sedans, Kim Jong Il toured an automobile factory, a solar panel plant and a discount store, where he reportedly inquired about cooking oil but didn’t buy anything.
东京——北朝鲜的领导人本周走遍中国观察他数十年来非常抵制的经济改革。在黑色奥迪轿车车队的护卫下，金正日乘坐装甲列车参观了汽车厂，一个太阳能电池板工厂和一个折扣商店，在那里，据说他询问烹调油，但没有买任何东西。
Kim’s fling with Chinese commercialism — capped by a sit-down Wednesday in Beijing with Chinese President Hu Jintao — fostered the latest hopeful talk that North Korea will open the world’s most controlled economy. For outside analysts, though, the trip revealed the odd stagecraft North Korea must perform as it bluffs interest in reform and then converts China’s approval into the aid and diplomatic support Kim needs to keep his country intact.
金正日扑向中国的商业化—— 通过周三在北京与中国国家主席胡锦涛坐谈——培育了最新的希望。谈话说，北韩希望将开放世界管制最严重的经济。外界分析家认为，旅行透露出金正日对改革表示兴趣，这不过是在表演。是想让中国进行援助和外交支持，金需要国家的稳定。
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To get these things [Kim] may have to mouth platitudes about reform, privately, or maybe even publicly,” Marcus Noland, a Washington-based North Korea economics expert, said in an e-mail. “But I am quite skeptical of either his true interest or even his capacity to implement.”
“要获得这些东西，[金]可能是装腔作势地发出改革的陈词滥调，私下里或者甚至是公开地，”华盛顿的北韩经济专家马库斯诺兰在一封邮件中说。 “但我怀疑他是不是真的感兴趣，甚至怀疑他有没有这个能力来执行。”
Having promised his 25 million people that North Korea will transform by 2012 into a “strong and prosperous” nation, Kim has turned to China, Pyongyang’s most important trade partner and benefactor. Kim, 69, wants to gain Beijing’s backing for plans to pass power to his youngest son, Kim Jong Eun. He also needs increased food aid, with one-quarter of his country vulnerable to shortages, according to a recent U.N. report.
他承诺说，25万人口的朝鲜将在2012年转变成一个“强大和繁荣”的国家，为此，金正日向平壤的最重要的贸易伙伴和恩人中国求助。69岁的金想要获得北京支持将权力交给他的小儿子金正恩的计划。根据联合国最近的报告，他还需要大量的粮食援助，以弥补国家一季度的短缺。
But analysts say that none of this can come at the expense of major market reforms, which would weaken North Korea’s state-controlled system and, in turn, jeopardize the Kim family leadership business.
但分析家说，这一切都可以以主要市场的改革代价，这将削弱朝鲜的国家控制制度，并反过来危及金正日家族的主导企业。
Though Kim’s visits to China usually compel silence from Chinese authorities, Premier Wen Jiabao told South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Sunday that this trip would allow Kim to observe, and potentially adopt, market-oriented reforms. Kim has spent six days on the road amid the highest-profile of his eight trips across the border, traveling more than 2,000 miles. One night, Kim dined at a Holiday Inn. He also met with China’s former president, Jiang Zemin.
虽然金正日访问中国，中国当局通常要求保持沉默，国务院总理温家宝周日还是告诉韩国总统李明博，此行将使金正日观察并有可能采用以市场为导向的改革。金正日在路上花了六天，最高越过边境八次，行驶2000多公里。一天晚上，金正日在假日酒店用餐。他还会见了中国前主席江泽民。
North Korea
experts in Seoul and Washington point out that Kim, for decades, has both marveled at China’s development and rejected its policies. In 1983, Kim — then North Korea’s leader-in-training, with his father, Kim Il Sung, still alive — visited China for the first time. On a train ride from Nanjing to Beijing, he met with reformist Hu Yaobang, who talked about China’s evolving policies. Kim, who took power in 1994, didn’t return to China for almost two decades.
首尔和华盛顿的朝鲜专家指出，金正日，几十年来，既惊叹于中国的发展，又拒绝其政策。 1983年，金——时为朝鲜准领导人，陪同他还健在的父亲金日成。——第一次访问了中国。在从南京到北京的火车上，他会见了改革派胡耀邦，关于中国的发展政策进行了座谈。金，1994年接任了权力，近二十年没有去过中国。
In Shanghai in 2001, Kim, according to a North Korean news account, toured the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Shanghai subway system, a high-tech park and the international convention center. The Shanghai experience influenced Kim in at least one way: He returned to Pyongyang and called for the education of new architects.
根据朝鲜新闻报道，2001年在上海，金参观了上海证券交易所、上海地铁系统、高科技园区和国际会议中心。上海的经历至少在一方面对金产生了影响：他回到平壤后提出了建筑师教育的要求。
Under Kim, North Korea has instituted fitful economic changes, but those steps have often been followed by swift reversals or counter-policies. Pyongyang authorities have advocated for limited private trade; then they’ve cracked down on it. In 2009, a currency revaluation wiped out the savings of a growing lower-middle class, hurting the burgeoning open markets.
在金正日的统治下，朝鲜已有了断断续续的经济变化，但这些措施往往被迅速逆转或反政策遵循。平壤当局主张有限的私人贸易；随之被取缔。 2009年，货币升值消灭了越来越多中低收入阶层的储蓄，伤害了蓬勃发展的开放的市场。
North Korea
does maintain several joint development projects with China along their shared border. The Chosun Ilbo, a major Seoul daily, reported that the countries will join in two more projects this month. Isolated from much of the international community, and increasingly ignored by South Korea, Pyongyang is “apparently trying to show that effects of economic sanctions by the South can be balanced out by economic cooperation with China,” the paper wrote.
北韩仍保留与中国合作的共同边界上的发展项目。朝鲜日报，一个重要的汉城日报报道，本月，国家将在更多的项目上投入。孤立于国际社会越来越久，越来越受到韩国忽视，朝鲜“显然试图表明，受到南韩经济制裁的影响，可以通过与中国经济合作中弥补过来”，文中写道。
Kim’s trip to China continued as a U.S. State Department team arrived Tuesday in Pyongyang to assess the country’s food situation and explore the resumption of food aid. The United States hasn’t delivered food aid to North Korea since 2009, and critics suggest that there is insufficient transparency to monitor donations.
金正日的中国之行进行时，周二，美国国务院团队抵达平壤，以评估该国的粮食形势，并探讨了粮食援助恢复计划。2009年以来，美国都没有向朝鲜进行粮食援助，评论家认为，监督捐款方面，那里没有充分的透明度。
Last week, four senators wrote to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, expressing skepticism about food aid to the North.
上周，四名参议员致函国务卿希拉里克林顿，表示对北韩粮食援助持怀疑态度。
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It seems that the other central goal of North Korea’s food aid program is to ensure ample food stocks for 2012, when Kim Jong Il’s regime will seek to prove its legitimacy by demonstrating it is a ‘powerful and prosperous country,’ ” said the letter from Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.), James Webb (D-Va.) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.). “This, too, is not an effort that the international community should play any part in bolstering.”
“看来，其他北朝鲜的粮食援助方案的中心目标是确保2012年，有充足的粮食储备。届时，金正日政权将由此证明它的合法性，它是一个‘强大的和繁荣的国家，’”参议员约翰麦凯恩（R-Ariz.），约瑟夫利伯曼一（I-Conn.），詹姆斯韦伯（D-Va.）和凯尔（R-Ariz.）在信中说道。 “这也不应该是国际社会努力增强的一部分。”
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