Petar Kujundzic /路透 周五在北京，警察封锁了刘晓波的妻子刘霞所居住的小区入口。
简介
诺贝尔和平奖被授予刘晓波 ，中国最着名的持不同政见者，谁是目前正在监狱服刑的一个颠覆罪11年。他20多年来一直主张和平的政治变革，公民自由和司法独立。 中共政府立即封锁了刘晓波获奖的消息，称该决定是“亵渎”和平奖。
这个奖项会发挥作用吗？如果对中方政府没有，那对那些与中国打交道的国家呢？ 在中国我们可能看到什么样的影响，例如使国际关注会持伤害不同政见者的运动吗？
What Best Serves the Communist Party 对共产党最有利的
Updated October 9, 2010, 01:15 AM
Perry Link is Chancellorial Chair in Teaching Across Disciplines at the University of California, Riverside, and author of “Evening Chats in Beijing,” as well as co-editor of “The Tiananmen Papers.”（林培瑞 加州大学滨河校区教务长，着有《北京夜话》同时是《天安门文件》的编辑者之一）
The Chinese government addresses such issues strictly in terms of one question: What serves the Communist Party’s monopoly grip on power?中国政府处理问题严格依照的标准是：如何有利于共产党对权力的垄断控制？
In the short term, the government’s response to Liu Xiaobo’s peace prize will certainly be to try to expunge all mention of it from the media and the Internet. And insofar as the news does leak out, government leaders will try to stimulate and exploit nationalist sentiment by charging that foreigners are meddling in China’s affairs and that Liu has lost face for the motherland — for whom we, the Communist Party, are the sole legitimate representative. There is no doubt that this will be the short-term response. Indeed the first signs are already visible. 从短期来看，政府的回应刘晓波获得和平奖的方式肯定是尽力抹去在所有的媒体和互联网上的相关消息。这个新闻在一定程度上已经传播开来，政府领导人将试图通过宣传“外国人干涉中国的事务，刘让祖国丢脸”来鼓励和利用民族主义情绪，而因为我们共产党，才是唯一的合法代表。 毫无疑问，这将是短期反应。事实上，最初迹象已经显现。
In the long run, though, the government authorities must decide if the perpetual international embarrassment is worth keeping one bookish free-thinker behind bars. They will have to calculate whether their power is better served by releasing Liu and subjecting him to the garden-variety harassment and control that other dissidents routinely endure. 从长远看，政府当局必须决定这个永远的国际笑话，是否继续关押这位带有书生气的自由思想家。 他们也将不得不计算释放刘晓波先生和使他受到其他异见人士通常所遇到的骚扰和控制，是否对他们的政权更有利。
The big question is not the government’s reaction but the long-term reaction of China’s people. In my view, the prize will add considerable prestige and weight to alternate visions of China’s future that originate with those outside of the government. 最大的问题不是政府的反应，而是中国人民的长期反应。 在我看来，诺贝尔和平奖将巨大增加民间所提出的未来中国愿景的威望和可选择的份量。
The prize will help Chinese people to see and feel that they have choices in what they pin their Chinese identity on. “China” in the 21st-century can be something bigger than, better than, and healthier than a crusty old-fashioned authoritarian governmen此奖将帮助中国民众感受到他们对自己的中国特征是有选择的。“中国”在21世纪可能会比顽固的老式独裁政府变得更大，更好，更健康。
Galvanizing Other Nations 激发其他国家
Updated October 9, 2010, 01:08 AM
Bei Ling, a poet and essayist, is the editor of Tendency, an exile literary journal, and the founder of Independent Chinese PEN Center. 贝岭 诗人散文家 流亡文学杂志《趋势》的编辑 独立中文笔会的创始人
The peace prize being given to Liu gives opposition activities across the world more courage and strength to advocate for human rights and freedom in China. 刘晓波获得和平奖让世界各地的反对活动有更多的勇气和力量倡导中国人权和自由。
The Chinese government won’t change much because of the peace prize. It will continue to suppress pro-democracy voices and activities. But I think this award can galvanize other nations to demand more of China on human rights issues. This may allow them to be more direct in confronting China, perhaps even with economic and trade concerns. 中国政府将不会因为和平奖而改变。它将继续压制民主的声音和活动。 但我认为这个奖能够激发其他国家在人权问题上对中国要求更多。这可能使他们更直接造成与中国的对立，甚至可能会发生经济和贸易问题。
China is tight with its censorship, but it cannot control everything. And while it will almost certainly try to increase controls, human rights activities within China are equally likely to become broader and more intense. I hope new international attention will help Liu and other activists like Hu Jia and Gao Zhisheng and other less well known political prisoners in China regain their freedom. 中国采取严格审查，但它无法控制一切。虽然它几乎肯定会设法加强控制，在中国的人权活动也同样可能成为更广泛和更激烈。我希望新的国际关注能帮助刘晓波和其他像其他象胡佳和高智晟这样的活跃人士以及其他更少被人们关注的中国政治犯重获自由。
China’s Bitter Response中国的痛苦回应
Updated October 9, 2010, 01:08 AM
Richard McGregor is the deputy news editor of the Financial Times and the author of “The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers.” 马德利《金融时报》副主编 着有《党：中国共产党统治者的秘密世界》
Based on past experience and the early response out of Beijing, China will react in a number of ways to bestowal of the prize on Liu Xiaobo. 根据以前的经验和北京早期反应观察，中国将会对刘晓波获奖作出许多反应的方式。
At home, they will seek to minimize any publicity in the mainstream media and on the Internet. Most Chinese will never have heard of Liu and the government does not want to stoke their curiosity. Nor does it want anybody who doesn’t know about Charter ’08 — the pro-democracy petition that got Liu into such trouble — to develop an interest in it. Depriving dissidents of the oxygen of publicity is a tried and true approach for the ruling Communist Party. Liu’s Nobel prize will ironically make him a better known figure overseas than he is at home. 在家里，他们将设法尽量减少在主流媒体和互联网上的宣传。大多数中国人不会听到刘晓波，同时政府不想激起他们的好奇心。它也不希望任何不知道08宪章的人产生兴趣：08宪章是一份民主请愿书，它使刘晓波陷入现在的麻烦。剥夺持不同政见者的话语权是共产党执政的一种已经尝试过的真实方法。 具有讽刺意味的是：刘晓波获得诺贝尔奖让他在海外比他在家里更为人所知。
For consumption abroad, the government has issued a boilerplate vituperative statement, labeling the award an “obscenity,” a message to the world that the Chinese government will not be influenced by foreign criticism. China cares deeply about its image overseas but it worries much more about being seen to bend to foreign pressure. Anyone seen to do so within the Chinese system is extremely vulnerable to harsh political attacks.政府已对海外发出一份固有模式的谴责声明，给此奖打上“亵渎”的标签，这向世界表态，中国政府将不会受到外国批评的影响。 中国关注自身在海外的形象，但它更多担心的是被视为屈服于外国压力。中国任何想这样行动的人极易受到激烈地政治攻击
There may be some tactical concessions — Liu’s wife may be able to visit him and pass on the news. Otherwise, China is in a stronger position than ever to resist Western pressure on human rights. In that respect, it is hard to see how the peace prize will help Liu and other dissidents. For all the extraordinary stirrings of political change in China, the award, in the short-term, sadly, may make things worse. 可能会有一些战术上的让步：刘晓波的妻子也许可以探望他，把这个消息告诉他。中国目前处在一个比以往更有利的地位，可以抵制西方的人权压力。在这方面，很难看到和平奖将帮助刘晓波和其他持不同政见者。 悲观地说，对于一切中国政治改革不平常的萌芽，这个奖在短期内可能会使事情变得更糟。
Pressure From Abroad 来自海外的压力
Updated October 9, 2010, 01:08 AM
Yang Jianli is a former prisoner of conscience in China and one of Liu’s Xiaobo’s international team of human rights specialists. He now resides in the U.S. and is the president of Initiatives for China. 杨建利 是中国以前的良心犯。刘晓波国际团队中的一名人权领域专家。 他现居住在美国，是公民力量主席。
The presentation of the Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo represents an incredible opportunity to bring the public’s awareness of democratization and human rights issues in China to another level. 和平奖颁给刘晓波代表一个令人难以置信的机会，可以使公众对中国的民主化和人权问题的认识提高到了另一个层次。
Combined with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s recent statements about the need for political reforms, this event could well encourage more Chinese citizens to join the democratic forces under the banner of Charter ’08, the reform manifesto which Liu helped create. 结合温家宝总理最近关于需要进行政治改革的声明，这一事件很可能鼓励更多的中国公民在08宪章的旗帜下，参与到民主力量中。刘晓波帮助建立了这份改革宣言。
I believe we can expect interesting and significant changes both in and out the government. As I said long ago, to effect a real change in China, three conditions must be present at the same time: crises (now mounting in many ways among ordinary citizens), viable opposition and international support. These three factors are emerging with greater force.我相信我能能够期待政府内外都会有一个重大的改变。正如我早就说过的，为了实现中国的真正变化，必须同时具备三个条件：危机（现在普通公民的许多方面目前正在增加），可行的反对力量和国际支持。 这三个因素是正在渐渐壮大。
The media blackouts in China of Liu’s award are regrettable, and the government’s restrictions on Liu Xiaobo’s wife, Liu Xia, are downright shameful. But it’s not surprising that the authorities’ first response is to tighten control because that is the only thing they know. With the international spotlight on Liu, the authorities will pay a heavier price than ever before for their heavy-handed policies. 中国媒体对刘获奖的封锁令人遗憾，政府的限制刘晓波的妻子刘霞是彻头彻尾的耻辱。但是，这并不奇怪，当局的第一反应是加强控制，因为这是他们唯一知道。随着刘晓波的国际关注度增加，当局将为他们的严厉政策付出比以往任何时候更大的代价。
Power in a Symbol 符号中的权力
Updated October 9, 2010, 09:37 PM
Jeffrey N. Wasserstrom is a professor of history at University of California, Irvine, a co-founder of “The China Beat” blog, and editor of the Journal of Asian Studies. He is the author of “China in the 21st Century: What Everyone Needs to Know.” 杰弗里 沃塞斯特罗姆 是加州欧文分校的历史系教授，“中国节拍”的联合创办人，《亚洲研究》编辑着有《21世纪的中国：人人都须知道的》
It would be foolish to think that this prize will have a dramatic and direct effect on Chinese political arrangements, in part because the government will try to control and spin the news that gets to ordinary citizens. Nonetheless, it does matter.认为这个奖将对中国的政治进程产生戏剧性的直接效果，这将是愚蠢的。部分原因是政府将会努力控制和干扰普通公民得到此消息。 尽管如此，这奖也非常重要
It will, at the very least, be a shot in the arm to many different kinds of activists working for change within the country, for whether or not they have any link to Liu Xiaobo (and most do not), they are likely to see him as a symbol for all efforts to increase respect for rights in China. And they will see his win as an indication that the world at large cares about these efforts.最起码，对许多正从事不同的工作来改变国家的行动者，它会是一个强心针，无论他们是否和刘晓波有任何联系（也许完全没有），他们很可能会将他看作为一切努力增加尊重中国人权的象征。 他们将看到一个标志：他的胜利是整个世界对这些努力的关心。
Perhaps the most significant aspect of the award is the way it challenges central aspects of what I see as the Chinese government’s ongoing “re-branding” drive. It aims to foster an image of China as a place that has found an appealing way to combine humanistic traditions (represented by Confucius, now back in favor) with impressive strides toward economic modernity. 也许这个奖最重要的一面是它根本上挑战了政府正在进行的我视为中国 “重塑品牌”的活动。它的目的是培养一种中国想象：中国已经找到一种结合人文主义传统（以孔子为代表，现在重新支持）和在经济现代化中大步前进。
One reason that Beijing has been so frustrated with Liu Xiaobo is that his writings eloquently expose the weakness behind the re-branding, namely that the expansion of civil rights lags dramatically behind the expansion of economic choices, and that government corruption remains endemic.北京如此沮丧的一个重要原因是，刘晓波的着作雄辩地揭露了中国重塑品牌背后的弱点，即公民权利的扩张大大落后于经济发展，而政府的腐败仍然流行。
Liu’s award has to be seen by Beijing as an obstacle to its re-branding campaign, which have included the image of the country presented during the opening ceremonies of the Olympics and the establishment of government-funded “Confucius Institutes” around the world. All these efforts strive to differentiate today’s China from the China of Mao’s day, the Communism of the Soviet Union, and from nakedly repressive neighbors like Burma and North Korea. 刘晓波获奖被北京视为品牌重塑活动的障碍，这活动包括奥运会期间的开幕式和在世界各地政府资助建立的“孔子学院”， 所有这些努力奋斗，想让今天的中国形象区别于毛泽东治下的中国社会和共产主义苏联，以及实行赤裸裸镇压的邻居缅甸和朝鲜。
Liu Xiaobo and the other framers of the “Charter ‘08”Internet petition went against the grain of these re-branding exercises by highlighting the degree to which China remains subject to exactly the sort of political critique that the Czech crafters of Charter 77 (on which the Chinese charter was based) made of the Communist Central European regime. For him to be awarded the prize won by Aung San Suu Kyi, while she was under house arrest, will undermine the notion that China and Burma are totally dissimilar. 刘晓波和其他 “宪章’08”起草者的互联网联署活动与这些品牌塑造活动格格不如，它突出显示了中国仍然和捷克斯洛伐克的77宪章（它是中国08宪章的来源之一）时的专制社会相似精准的压制政治上的反对派。对于他被授予的诺贝尔和平奖，昂山素季也曾是该奖得主，她得奖时正被软禁在家，这将破坏中国和缅甸是完全不一样的概念。
The Chinese government claims, of course, that to achieve economic growth and development has required a society that is “stable” and “harmonious,” and that acts of dissent often endanger this stability. 当然中国政府声称：要实现经济增长和发展需要社会“稳定”和“和谐”，而持不同政见者的行为往往危及这种稳定。
It should be hard to make this argument stick when leveled at Liu Xiaobo. His writings have often stressed the need for compromise and he’s often championed the idea that change should come with a minimum of confrontation. And he was, after all, someone who both supported the 1989 protesters and counseled them to be moderate in their demands and tactics when possible.当批判刘晓波时，这种争论很难继续下去。 他的作品往往需要强调的妥协，他的想法常常倡导的改变都应该有一个最低的对话。 而他至少在1989年时是支持和建议反对者们在适当的时候提出温和要求。
Unfortunately, few Chinese citizens are familiar with Liu’s actions and writings. It is good that the Nobel prize, in addition to making these better known globally, should raise their profile at least a bit inside China. 不幸的是，只有很少的中国公民了解刘晓波的行动和着作。 令人高兴的是，诺贝尔奖，除了使世界更好地了解他之外，他在中国的知名度也会得到提升。
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