原作者：
来源Insight – North Korea leans on China to make economic zones work | Reuters
译者狭叶柴胡
(Reuters) – Hermit North Korea is trying a new pitch to attract foreign investors into one of the world’s most closed, and impoverished, economies. This time it might even work.
路透社——神秘的朝鲜正在尝试采取新一轮行动，以吸引外国投资者到这片世界上最封闭、最不发达的经济体来。这次可能会起些作用。
What makes this attempt a bit more credible is that world no. 2 economy China is scaling up support for its heavily sanctioned ally and neighbor which has long made a point of avoiding contact with the outside world.
使这项尝试更可靠的保证是，世界的第二大经济体中国，加大了对它的这个一直强调避免与外界接触的重要盟友和邻居的支持。
Unlike the past when that support came only from the local and regional level, now China’s central leadership is backing Pyongyang’s latest effort: the construction of two liberalized “special economic zones” in the east and west.
不像过去那些仅来自于地方和区域层面的支持，现在是中国的核心领导团队正在支持着平壤最新的努力：在东部和西部建立两个自由化的“经济特区”。
Michael Hay, a British lawyer and business consultant based in Pyongyang, said Asian companies, mostly from China, are showing the most interest in entering the destitute state and forming joint ventures.
Michael Hay是一位英国律师，也是驻朝鲜的商业顾问，他说，亚洲的公司，大部分是中国的公司，对进入这个贫民国家来合作投资表现出了浓厚的兴趣。
There has been a perceptible increase in trademark filings and registrations, indicating “that some countries and major companies are gearing up for a possible improvement in the political climate which has a knock-on effect on the business and legal climate,” he told Reuters.
他对路透社说，在商标备案和注册的数量上已经有了显而易见的增长，这标志着“一些国家和主要公司正在努力促成一次可能的政治气候上的进步，而这种进步会对商业和法律环境有冲击性的作用。”
The North’s push to make the zones work coincides with an easing in tensions on the divided peninsula and tentative signs of detente between Pyongyang and Washington.
朝鲜努力使经济特区得以运作，这可以缓解朝鲜半岛的紧张局势，同时也是在试探性地缓和平壤和华盛顿间的关系。
United Nations data shows Chinese investment in North Korea grew from $1.5 million in 2002 to about $42 million in 2008. China’s official data from early 2008 show 84 Chinese investment streams in North Korea with a total value of $440 million.
联合国的数据显示，中国对朝鲜的投资从2002年的150万美元增长到了2008年的4200万美元。中国2008年年初的官方数据显示，有84笔中国投资流入了朝鲜，总额达4亿4000万美元。
Analysts say the North wants something to show for its self-acclaimed rise as a “strong and powerful nation” to mark the 100th anniversary of founder Kim Il-sung’s birth next year.
分析学家说，朝鲜希望能有什么东西可以展示其作为一个“强大国家”那自我感觉良好的进步，作为明年金日成诞辰100周年的标志。
Experts caution against reading too much into the latest drive to woo foreign capital, saying Pyongyang has embarked on such projects before, including talk back in 1991 of constructing an economic zone in the northeast.
专家们说人们过于关注最近的朝鲜追求外资的举动了，平壤在之前已经实施过多次类似的方案，包括1991年对于在东北部建立经济特区的回应。
“If the past is an indicator, the chances of success are not high,” Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, wrote on the East Asia Forum website.
“如果过去可以作为借鉴的话，那么这次成功的把握并不是很大。”首尔国民大学的朝鲜问题专家Andrei Lankov在东亚论坛网站上写道。
In the past, the door was often quickly shut by an authoritarian leadership fearful that engaging the outside world was anathema to its ‘juche’ policy of economic self-reliance and a threat to its dynastic rule.
在过去，对外开放的大门往往会被独裁的领导者很快关闭，因为他们惧怕外面那迷人的世界会威胁到它以经济自足为基础的“独立自主”的政治，还会威胁到其家族的统治。
SEZ SOLUTION
【经济特区方案】
The North’s 10-year economic plan, announced in January, focuses on developing its poor infrastructure, seen by investors as one of the biggest turn-offs to doing business there.
朝鲜于一月宣布了它的10年经济计划，集中在发展它落后的基础设施，这在投资者看来是在这里进行商业活动的最不受欢迎的事情之一。
In June, within days of Kim Jong-il’s return from his third trip to China in a year, Beijing and Pyongyang declared they would work together to make the special economic zones work.
六月，在金正日从他本年的第三次中国之行回国后的几天中，北京和平壤宣布他们将合作运营经济特区。
There are two SEZs, one at the small port of the Rason on the east coast near China and Russia, and the other in the west at Hwanggumpyong island near the Chinese city of Dandong.
朝鲜有两个经济特区，其中一个是临近中国和俄罗斯的东海岸小港口罗先，另一个是在西部临近中国丹东市的黄金坪岛上建立的。
“The North Korean government obviously hopes that small areas of controlled capitalism will generate enough income to make a difference — or at least to keep afloat the long-decaying economy,” said Lankov.
“朝鲜政府明显希望，小规模的受约束的资本主义地带可以产生足以称为‘有重大意义’的收益，或至少可以维持那长期落后的经济不至于崩溃。”Lankov说。
Experts see Rason as the most viable project, mainly because of China’s considerable interest in ensuring it is successful. The opening of an SEZ seaport will provide a valuable transport link for Chinese companies in landlocked areas in the northeast.
专家们将罗先视为最可行的方案，主要是因为中国对于确保它的成功具有浓厚的兴趣。这个开放的经济特区海港将为处在东北部内陆的中国公司提供一条有价值的运输路线。
“Rason has become more important to China because of the Northeast development policy and the need to find alternative access to the sea,” says Roger Barrett, head of Beijing-based Korea Business Consultants who takes investors to Pyongyang.
“罗先对于中国来说变得更重要了，原因在于中国促进东北地区发展的政策以及它要寻找通往海洋的另一条通路。”Roger Barrett说。他是驻北京的朝鲜商业顾问团队（这个团队负责将投资者领入朝鲜）的领导。
The North has set it sights high, declaring last month the zone could one day become a worldwide trade and investment center linking Northeast Asia with Europe and North America.
朝鲜将它的眼光放得很高，于上个月宣布这个特区终有一天会成为一个连接东北亚、欧洲和北美的世界性的商业和投资中心。
Hwanggumpyong’s future as a tourism, logistics and production center is less certain, experts agree.
专家们认为，黄金坪岛作为一个观光、后勤和生产中心的未来还没有确定。
DEJA VU
【似曾相识】
Investors have heard it all before. Over the past decade, they have had their hopes raised by two summits between the Koreas and Pyongyang’s signing of denuclearisation deals.
投资者在很久之前就知道这一信息了。在过去的十年中，他们的期望值因为韩国和朝鲜领导层签署了弃核协议而有所升高。
In that time, investors mostly from South Korea poured hundreds of millions of dollars into building scores of factories and a tourist resort in the North with the backing of the government in Seoul.
在那段时期，投资者主要来自韩国，他们在首尔政府的支持下，为朝鲜的工厂建设和旅游业注入了上亿美元的资金。
But the political mood can change abruptly in the North, and the investment appetite fell off as the North tested nuclear devices and missiles, carried out a series of attacks against its neighbor and abandoned its dabble with marketisation.
但是政治情绪在朝鲜可以突然发生转变。随着朝鲜进行核试验和试射导弹，投资的热度有所下降，这给它的邻国造成了一连串的打击，并抛弃了它进行市场化的尝试。
“One ignores the political situation at one’s peril,” said Hay, who has worked out of his office off Kim Il-sung square in central Pyongyang for the past seven years.
“忽视政治环境会造成危险。”Hay说。他在平壤中心的金日成广场对面开办的办公室工作了七年。
The election of a hardline president in Seoul in 2008 all but ended trade between the two Koreas, with the exception of business at the special economic zone in Kaesong.
2008年，走强硬路线的韩国总统当选，差一点儿完全中止韩国和朝鲜间的贸易，只有开城经济特区的商业活动得以保留。
“This slack appears to have merely left room for a large number of Chinese companies that are now seeing the benefits of, for example, tapping into the DPRK’s (North Korea’s) rich natural resources while also benefiting from labor costs that are undercutting those prevailing in the arguably overheated Chinese economy,” Hay said.
“这各空档给了很多中国公司机会。它们看中了可以从开采朝鲜丰富的自然资源，以及相对于经济过热的国内更具有优势的廉价劳动力等资源中获得的利益。”Hay说。
Experts say the North’s mineral reserves are estimated to be worth $2 trillion. Beijing is driven by strategic interests to cash in on the North’s untapped natural and human resources and resources such as coal, iron ore, limestone and magnesite are the primary targets of major Chinese investments, they say.
专家说，朝鲜的矿石储量估计价值为2万亿美元。北京方面受战略利益的驱使，要利用朝鲜尚未开发的自然和人力资源。煤矿、铁矿、石灰矿和菱镁矿等资源是那些中国的主要投资的目标。
South Korea said its neighbor’s trade with China last year increased nearly 30 percent from a year earlier to $3.47 billion, compared to inter-Korean trade of $1.91 billion.
韩国说，去年朝鲜与中国的贸易额与年初相比增长了近30％，达到了34.7亿美元。而与韩国的贸易额仅为19.1亿美元。
With the opening of the two trade zones, Beijing is encouraging companies to go behind the border fence, and get a foothold in the market before other countries.
随着两个商贸区域的开放，北京正在鼓励公司越过国境线，在其它国家之前抢占市场。
“Investment in China’s northeast and the handful of small-scale Chinese investments in North Korea reveal an array of Chinese actors with a common strategy to position themselves for a future opening of the DPRK,” Drew Thompson wrote in a report for the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
“在中国东北地区的投资和在朝鲜的少量小规模的中国投资，暴露出了一群中国的投资者。他们有着共同的战略，以在未来开放的朝鲜民主主义人民共和国中立足。”Drew Thompson在一份为约翰·霍普金斯大学美韩研究所撰写的报告中写道。
China’s gravest fear is the scenario in which North Korea collapses, allowing U.S. troops stationed in the South access right up to its border. It thus wants to keep the status quo.
中国最大的担心在于朝鲜崩溃，这将使得美国在韩国的驻军夺取控制权而威胁到中国的边境。因此中国希望维持现状。
Beijing has encouraged the North to follow its path of “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” or controlled capitalism, but analysts say that replicating such reforms would be suicide for North Korea’s leadership.
北京一直在鼓励朝鲜参考“中国特色的社会主义道路”，或者发展有限的资本主义。但分析学家说，对于中国那种改革的复制，对于朝鲜领导者来说无异于是自杀行为。
Lankov said that copying China’s formula would only result in a relaxation of societal controls. “The net result of these changes would likely be a grave crisis in the regime’s legitimacy and, perhaps, its complete collapse.”
Lankov说，复制中国经验将只会放宽对社会的管制。“而这些改变可能会通过连锁反应最终导致一场有关朝鲜政权合法性的危机，甚至有可能导致它的完全崩溃。”
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