In the International Herald Tribune, Yun-han Chu and Andrew J. Nathan write about the potential outcomes of the upcoming legislative and presidential elections in Taiwan and what it means for cross-Straits ties:
Yet the most important result of the elections is all but predetermined: Taiwan’s next president will be a relative moderate on cross-strait issues.
The key to this surprising development is a shift in the mood of Taiwan voters. Chen’s efforts over the past eight years to open up more international space for Taiwan hardened Beijing’s position while producing a loss of support for Taiwan in Washington. The economy went through a recession in 2001 and has not strongly recovered. A stream of corruption scandals engulfed high-ranking officials of the governing Democratic Progressive Party and the presidential family.
The voters understand the dangerous situation the island is in. As a result, few respondents in public opinion polls insist on either unification or independence; most are open to different outcomes depending on which can be achieved peacefully. [Full text]
