LAST week’s Chinese New Year holiday brought, literally, a rare breath of fresh air to Hong Kong. With thousands of mainland factories temporarily closed, the choking toxic smog that regularly envelops the city cleared briefly. As it did, a question struck me: what if China – or, more precisely, its domestic economy – took an extended holiday?
Granted, a serious setback to Chinese growth does not seem on the cards soon, given its recent strength. Nor, evidently, was the possibility much on the minds of the business leaders who drooled over the Chinese miracle in Davos last month. But it is not inconceivable. Several, internally generated, upsets could precipitate a sharp slowdown: a deflationary spiral caused by the country’s chronic over-investment; a property market crash; or a series of policy blunders.



