The decision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran’s nuclear programme to the UN Security Council has thrown into sharp focus relations between Iran and Russia. Moscow may soon have to choose whether to back Iran or align itself with the US and the European Union (EU) in reining in Iran’s nuclear intentions.
Russia appears ready to co-operate with both the USA and Iran in order to boost its trade relations with the two countries. Although Russia is also a leading oil exporter and therefore unlikely to be intimidated by Iranian threats to reduce oil sales, the Russian nuclear industry is dependent on the completion of Iran’s USD1 billion Bushehr project, which Moscow hopes will be followed by future billion-dollar contracts. Russia’s defence industries, also badly in need of an economic boost through exports, have also been selling weapons systems and aircraft to Iran.
Meanwhile, China is becoming even more dependent on Iran for energy. A November 2004 deal to supply China with gas worth USD100 billion is likely rise to a total of USD200 billion after a similar oil agreement is finalised. Iran will export 10 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually for 25 years in return for Chinese investment in exploration and drilling. This energy co-operation is rendering the US administration’s economic sanctions on Iran ineffective. However, the Russians must now assess the likelihood of being supplanted by China if they appear willing to trade favours with Washington and lose the confidence of Tehran. Iran may yet emerge as a leading member of a post-Cold War alliance which will work to undermine US regional objectives.
