Analysts at the Rand Corp. think-tank have scoured Chinese military sources to see what the People’s Liberation Army strategy might be if it ever goes to war with a country that “isn’t explicitly named but is unmistakably the U.S.,” according to the Air Force Times. Such a conflict would likely be sparked by differences over Taiwan.
China’s experts concede its army would lose a head-on fight, with one senior colonel comparing such a scenario to “throwing an egg against a rock.” Instead, the Chinese would attempt what Rand calls an “anti-access” strategy: slowing the deployment of U.S. forces to the Pacific theater, damaging operations within the region and forcing the U.S. to fight from a distance. . . .
U.S. facilities in South Korea and Japan, even far-south Okinawa, sit within what Rand calls the “Dragon’s Lair”: a swath of land and sea along China’s coast. This is an area reachable by cruise missiles, jet-borne precision bombs and local covert operatives. Air Force bases within this area include Osan and Kunsan in South Korea, as well as Misawa, Yokota and Kadena in Japan. And in a conflict over Taiwan, any nation allowing “an intervening superpower” such as the U.S. to operate inside its territory can expect a Chinese attack, according to China’s defense experts. [Full text]
The full report and a summary are available as free downloads on Rand’s web site here.
