Sir Malcolm Rifkind was British Foreign Secretary, 1995-97. He writes in the Telegraph:
Where China has been unreservedly impressive is in comparison to Russia. No one buys anything from Russia apart from oil, gas and various minerals. Hydrocarbons account for three quarters of Russia’s exports and half of government revenues. This makes the Russian economy more like that of Libya than of America. China, in comparison, is importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods. It is, already, a much bigger player than Russia in the world economy.
So the Americans are right to see China as their most powerful long-term rival. They are correct to identify a China whose foreign policy is already becoming more assertive and which will expect to be treated as an equal by other world powers.
What the Americans do not have to fear, at least for a generation or so, is that China could replace them as the gold medal winner on the podium of global power.
