In Time Magazine, historians of America and China write about commonalities they see between China today and America in the mid-19th century:
While we’re too aware of how regularly — and speedily — bold forecasts about China are proved wrong to offer one of our own, our research into 19th century America and contemporary China, respectively, leads us to flag a third possibility: China could stumble but keep climbing upward, much like the U.S. did about a century and a half ago. We find today’s China less reminiscent of Japan in the 1980s than it is of the U.S. in the 1850s.
Don’t get us wrong. We don’t expect breakneck growth to continue unabated. China faces daunting challenges, from a rapidly graying workforce to endemic corruption to energy needs that are increasingly hard to satisfy. To say that China faces major challenges, though, doesn’t undermine the American analogy. The same was true of the U.S. circa 1850.
The U.S. was then, as China is now, a predominantly rural country undergoing a massive shift toward an urban, industrial economy. By the 1850s, the U.S. was en route to becoming the workshop of the world, rapidly churning out cheap yet high-quality textiles, clocks, guns and other goods. The British dubbed this miracle the “American system of manufactures,” and it became the envy of the world. Much as China’s capacity for producing seemingly endless quantities of cheap goods is now earning it the ire and admiration of other countries.
