A rapidly growing old-age dependency ratio has many worried about the burden that an enormous elderly population will place on Chinese society. The infamous one-child policy has been blamed for contributing to a future China mired in demographic chaos. An editorial in The Diplomat advocates the speedy dismantling of the controversial policy on the grounds that it contributes to other serious social problems, mentioning that the demographic shift would be occurring even in its absence:
Over 30 years ago, in 1980, China launched its one-child policy. Today, the country’s demographic dividend is spent. Its labor force is set to decline in absolute terms. The old-age dependency ratio (the number of people above the age of 65 for every person of working age) is expected to double over the next two decades, reaching the level of Norway or the Netherlands by 2030. Some observers have put two and two together and argued that the one-child policy has been the reason behind this demographic transition.
But that’s not so. The sharp decline in China’s fertility rate – from 5.9 in 1960 to1965 to near 1.5 today – would probably have occurred anyway. After all, other rapidly growing East Asian countries also have fertility rates that have declined just as fast as China’s, such as Korea, Thailand, and even Indonesia (although Indonesia, with a lower per capita income, is behind by a couple of decades). And none of them had a one-child policy.
[…R]emoving the one-child policy isn’t likely to have any impact on the overall population of China. The government recognizes this and is beginning to dismantle it, albeit slowly. This slow pace is unfortunate for two reasons. First, parents choosing a second child are prevented from having one on account of the policy, and in some cases may be forced to undergo an abortion.
As important, the one-child policy is an important factor contributing to China’s “missing women” – there are over 30 million fewer women in China today than would be the case if its gender balance resembled that of other countries. This has occurred for a number of reasons: sex-selective abortions, infanticide, neglect, or abandonment. Some of this can be attributed to the constraints imposed on families as a result of the one-child policy, and is all the more reason China should accelerate the removal of the one-child policy.
A Bloomberg article looks at the challenges that the rising generation of CCP leadership can expect to face regarding state sanctioned family-planning. The article cites intellectuals and policy experts to the conclusion that the one-child policy won’t disappear in haste:
“A sudden U-turn is not likely,” said Cai Yong, a fellow at the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. “The government is more worried about short-term problems. More and more people see the problem but there’s no urgency to change it because it’s slow burning.”
The policy instead is more likely to be unwound gradually. Some delegates may push for relaxations in the law at the NPC, which starts on March 5, said Wang Feng, a director of the Brookings-Tsinghua center, a venture between China’s Tsinghua University and the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
[…] “China is going to change its one-child policy,” said Ronald Wan, a Hong Kong-based managing director at China Merchants Securities Co. “It won’t be overnight. They will fine-tune bit by bit. Dairy milk and those companies related to children like education, clothing will benefit.”
Also see past CDT coverage of China’s aging population, gender imbalance and much-disputed one-child policy.
