China’s National Rejuvenation Now 65.3% Complete

China’s National Rejuvenation Now 65.3% Complete

Following an update to China’s unofficial rejuvenation index, Josh Chin examines the formula used to calculate it. From China Real Time:

“I would like to ask, how was this little number calculated?” asked one user of Sina Corp.’s Weibo microblogging service, putting the question more politely than most.

[…] Also unclear is what it will mean for China to have achieved 100% rejuvenation – a question Mr. Xi himself has so far not been able to answer with much precision. Does it mean a return to the prestige China enjoyed at the height of its last dynasty, the Qing, when the country was ruled by Manchus and encompassed vastly more territory? Or is a better standard perhaps the Tang, when ruled an empire that was the center of global commerce and innovation?

Mr. Yang insists that rejuvenation, despite its connotations, doesn’t imply a return to some past glory. Instead, he writes, it means “a ‘recovering’ of a completely new” concept of China that includes a fully developed, sustainable economy and the ability to “contribute greatly to world and .” [Source]

Chin notes that the rate of rejuvenation has slowed since a boom between 2005 and 2010, from an average of 3.34% per annum then to just 1.3% from 2011-12. At this reduced rate, full rejuvenation will not be attained until late 2038. The current pace still exceeds the historical average of a suspiciously neat 1% per year identified by an Anhui government advisor, however. From Jamil Anderlini at The Financial Times:

Mr Zhou worked out the number of days between 1949 and 2049 – 100 years from the founding of the ’s Republic of China – then calculated the proportion of days that had passed by the start of July , when Mr Yang first published his rejuvenation index for the year 2010.

The result was 62.74 per cent of the 100 years had passed by then – exactly the same level of rejuvenation that Mr Yang said had been achieved in China by the end of 2010. [Source]

But one weibo poster suggested last year that Yang had miscalculated, and that the national rejuvenation had fatally stalled at 89.64%.

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