From Global Insight’ website:
China’s manufacturing sector has been growing so quickly in recent years that the size of its output is set to exceed output in the U.S. manufacturing sector in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the exact time frame for this change in ranking depends on how we measure the size of output.
Indeed, when sales revenues (gross output) that are earned by the manufacturing sector are used to measure the size of output, China will grow to outrank the United States as early as 2008. If, however, the value added of the manufacturing sector is used to measure relative size, China will not outrank the United States until 2013. Furthermore, when output is measured using real (inflation-adjusted) “1997 U.S. dollars,” then the manufacturing value added in China will not exceed that of the United States until after 2020. [Full Text]
