Wang Yi’s New-Year Trip Underlines Stability of China-Africa Relationship

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded a week-long trip to Namibia, the Republic of Congo, Chad, and Nigeria, as part of a 35-year tradition of China’s foreign minister visiting Africa at the start of each new year. Some of the notable outcomes from the trip are China Development Bank’s release of a $255 million loan to support Nigeria’s Kaduna-Kano railway, and Wang’s pledge for China to provide African countries with 1 billion RMB in grants for military assistance to fight terrorism, including training for 6,000 military personnel and 1,000 police law enforcement. (Hours after Wang met with Chad’s president in N’Djamena on Wednesday, 19 people were killed in an attack on the presidential office.) Wang’s trip and the turn of the year gave analysts an occasion to reflect on the trajectory of China-Africa relations in 2025.

There was much discussion about the significance of the trip itself. Michael Dillon, a history professor affiliated with the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, told RFI, “It is consistency, building up a long-term relationship, which is what the Chinese have always insisted on,” adding, “The Africans don’t like people who come in and make promises and then go out again. They want people who are prepared to take the rough with the smooth and to accept that a long-term relationship is the only way of developing mutual interest.” Cobus van Staden at the China-Global South Project (CGSP) told VOA, “It’s always a mix of big states and small ones. The main point of all of this is to show that China is a non-discriminatory partner; that it doesn’t have ‘important countries,’ the way Western powers would tend to cherry pick.” In an article for the CGSP that included an interactive map of Africa showing every new-year visit by China’s foreign minister since 1991, Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu wrote that Beijing’s motivation for which countries to visit “likely lies in a mix of factors, including practical and symbolic considerations, but it is also rooted in pure diplomacy.”

Cliff Mboya, a research fellow at the Ghana-based Afro-Sino Center of International Relations, told DW, “Africa’s long-term development plans are being put into consideration. We are seeing China aligning with the Agenda 2063, proposed by the African Union, for example. […] We are seeing an emphasis on sustainability and green development. Last year’s FOCAC was very pivotal because Africa came out very strongly to make clear what they expect from China. And we saw China responding with these promises and this plan.” This emphasis can be seen already in China’s expanding production of electric vehicles in and for African markets, particularly as Western countries raise tariffs and decouple technology sectors. In an episode of the China in Africa Podcast unpacking Wang’s visit, Ovigwe Eguegu, an analyst who focuses on China-Africa relations, shared his forecast for Chinese engagement with Africa in 2025, highlighting the importance of green-energy supply chains:

I think it’s very, very clear for anyone following China-Africa relations that energy is [a] big issue but it’s going to be front and center. When I mean energy, we’re looking [at] both traditional hydrocarbons, renewable energy, just investment, but also tying that to green development. If you recall, the ninth article on the list of 10 in the Beijing Action Plan has green development as being a priority. And there will be a lot of movement in that direction because it ties to even another action plan, which is the industrial [supply] chain cooperation. Knowing fully well that with Trump’s administration pressure was going to build on China, [China may try] to invest in certain areas in Africa more, at least prioritizing those investments, to offset any loss that will be coming in their engagement with United States, possibly even Europe.

[…] I also think the issue of infrastructure development and finance is still going to be prioritized because it still remains part of the commitment, at least in the messaging we’re hearing from China. It might not be those multi-billion-dollar investments, the money might not come as quickly as they used to, but that is still going to be part of the conversation because, whether we like it or not, apart from the fact that the need is there and there’s common understanding with both sides, those set of projects make China-Africa relationship look very, very good. [Source]

Paul Nantulya at the African Center for Strategic Studies outlined several major objectives that Chinese and African actors will likely pursue in 2025. The Chinese side, he argued, will seek to implement the FOCAC Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027), secure global energy supply chains, consolidate ties with African state and party actors, and advance military modernization and outreach. On the African side, important goals include rebalancing trade, securing infrastructure projects, and increasing transparency. Nantulya also highlighted the growing role of independent China watchers seeking to enhance African governments’ policy:

An emerging dimension of Africa-China relations is the growing relevance of independent African communities-of-interest in China. These thought leaders represent an expanding professional cadre of African expertise to advise African governments on China policy to foster more balance, awareness, and accountability in the Africa-China relationship.

Top objectives for these independent China watchers include:

  • Establishing a system to track FOCAC commitments
  • Promoting financial transparency, particularly in extractives
  • Pushing for greater coherence in African strategies toward China
  • Advancing new models for debt sustainability

[…] China’s Africa policy is part of a global strategy to create dependencies and interdependencies that make countries and regions more inclined to support China’s global ambitions. African countries, in contrast, do not have a written strategy toward China. Yet, African interests are still discernible and, at times, not aligned with those of China. Measures of progress for 2025 will be whether momentum to clearly articulate African interests can be sustained, African ownership of Chinese-funded capacity building can be institutionalized, and a system to systematically track FOCAC commitments while maximizing benefits to the continent can be established. [Source]

In his Africanist Perspective Substack, Ken Opalo made a list of predictions about the major trends on the African continent in 2025. He wrote, “The most important thing to watch this year regarding Africa-China relations will be growth in Africa’s agriculture exports and the extent to which the Continent’s economies exploit tariff-free access to the Chinese market.” (Last September, China announced it would eliminate tariffs for goods from 33 least-developed countries in Africa.) This week, Development Reimagined, a China-Africa consultancy, published an infographic outlining the growth prospects for the African continent in 2025, noting that serious debt issues from the global financial architecture continue to constrain many African countries. The consultancy’s founder Hannah Ryder told Reuters that “China has become central to Africa’s policy, as an actor and an inspiration,” referring to how candidates vying to chair the African Union Commission that will be elected in February have talked up Beijing’s potential to support African economies.

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