Global tributes poured in following the death of Pope Francis on Monday, as world leaders and admirers of all faiths mourn a figure of peace in a time of growing conflict. However, as Italy’s Corriere della Sera bitterly noted, Chinese media largely ignored the pope’s death, with most Chinese newspapers relegating that news to short briefs buried behind front pages saturated in Xi Jinping hagiography. Nectar Gan at CNN described how the China’s muted official response to Pope Francis’ death reflects its historically tense relationship with the Vatican:

Chinese state-controlled media’s coverage on his death has been terse. The Chinese government extended its condolences nearly 24 hours after the Vatican’s announcement of the pope’s death – when asked about it at a regular news conference at its foreign ministry.

“In recent years, China and the Vatican have maintained constructive contact and engaged in beneficial exchanges. The Chinese side is willing to work together with the Vatican to promote the continued improvement of China-Vatican relations,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the ministry, told reporters on Tuesday.

China’s minimalist response underscores the sensitivity of ties between the atheist ruling Communist Party and the Holy See. [Source]

After the death of Pope John Paul II in 2005, the Chinese government did not send a representative to his funeral and instead criticized then-Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian’s planned trip to the Vatican as a separatist move. The Vatican is one of 11 countries worldwide and the only country in Europe that officially recognizes Taiwan. This week, current Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te expressed his “sincerest condolences on behalf of the people of Taiwan to the Catholic community and everyone mourning the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis,” adding, “We will continue to draw inspiration from his lifelong commitment to peace, global solidarity, and caring for those in need.” Taiwan reportedly hopes to send President Lai to attend Pope Francis’ funeral, and is awaiting a response from the Vatican. Hong Kong’s Catholic Church and religious leaders also expressed their “deepest condolences.” The Dalai Lama stated, “His Holiness Pope Francis dedicated himself to the service of others, […] consistently revealing by his own actions how to live a simple, but meaningful life. The best tribute we can pay to him is to be a warm-hearted person, serving others wherever and in whatever way we can.”

Unlike many of his predecessors, Pope Francis never met with the Dalai Lama, as he tried to thread the needle of the Vatican’s sensitive relationship with China. The Chinese government’s restrictions on Catholicism have produced a decades-long split among the 10-12 million Catholics in China, between the state-controlled Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association churches and persecuted underground churches that profess loyalty to the pope. Pope Francis reached a landmark agreement with the government in 2018—which was renewed in 2020 and 2022, and renewed again last October for another four years—that ostensibly recognizes the pope as the religious authority of all Chinese Catholics, gives the pope the power to veto appointments of all new bishops nominated by Beijing, and legitimizes those that had been appointed by Beijing without prior papal approval.

Details of the agreement have remained secret. Critics lament that in reality the Chinese government has over the past few years made several high-profile, unilateral appointments that forced the pope to retrospectively ratify in order to maintain the Church’s formal position in China. The Vatican’s muted reaction to Hong Kong’s arrest of Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun in May 2022, just months before the agreement with China was renewed, added to the controversy. And despite these agreements, religious persecution and Sinicization campaigns have only grown under Xi Jinping.

Laura Zhou, Shi Jiangtao, and Lawrence Chung at the South China Morning Post reported how China’s ties with the Vatican might change under a new pope:

“It depends on who will succeed him,” said Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre think tank in Washington.

“If it is a more conservative and orthodox pope, the Vatican will be likely to withdraw some of Pope Francis’ engagement, outreach and pragmatic approach to China, such as the authority to appoint bishops.”

[...] “This issue is not likely to be resolved, whoever will represent the Vatican in this relationship going forward,” [a] specialist on Sino-Christian studies said.

“Beijing will remain pragmatic, the question is to what extent pragmatism will serve the Holy See and China’s Catholic Church.”

[...] “Beijing is unlikely to pay too much attention to the China policy of the Vatican, because China’s position has been consistent and will not be changed because of a new pope,” said Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor of the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper Study Times.

“But of course Beijing would be keen to see a successor who is friendly to China, and who will not have a too close relationship with Taiwan.” [Source]

Pope Francis’ efforts to bridge the Vatican and China will likely not be the last. “The next pope may not be as gifted or confident with Chinese or Asian situations, but it’s going to remain a priority,” Dr. Michel Chambon, a Catholic theologian at the National University of Singapore, told The Sydney Morning Herald. “The next election [for pope] will be probably the first time that, when they select candidates, they will check his view on China. It will be a key criteria that he has a subtle, constructive view on how to engage China.” At Le Monde, Frédéric Lemaître described how, despite the limitations of Pope Francis’ approach, the Vatican is pursuing a realist and long-term strategy:

This key man in Vatican diplomacy[, Benoît Vermander, a Jesuit who teaches philosophy at Fudan University in Shanghai,] is in favor of the agreement, but noted that many Catholics feel that the price to be paid to move toward this greater unity of the Church is high. While Pope Francis was very discreet about human rights abuses in China – only once was he heard praying for "the poor Uyghurs" – Xi clearly has no intention of granting greater autonomy to the Churches. Quite the contrary, in fact. Since 2017, he has been insisting on the Sinicization of religions, a term which means that they must in effect accept the primacy of the Chinese Communist Party. In an interview with the American Catholic channel EWTN News in March 2023, Paul Richard Gallagher, the Vatican’s secretary for relations with states, acknowledged that this 2020 agreement is "certainly not the best deal possible."

"Everything is done obviously in the context of Chinese domestic politics (…) And therefore, we can only achieve so much," Gallagher said. "But one of the things that the Chinese and the Catholic Church and the Holy See have in common is that we don’t think in months, or even in years. We’re thinking in terms of a much longer time. And we hope that, in time, the relations between the Catholic Church in China will be shall we say much more ‘normal,’ much more fluid, much more fruitful." While Francis may have been a visionary, it has to be said that he was up against a formidable tactician determined to do him no favors. [Source]