Prospects for Taiwan’s Upcoming Presidential Election – Dafydd Fell

From The Brookings Institution’s website:

In March 2008 Taiwan will hold its fourth direct presidential election. Although the election is still nine months away the campaign for nomination is well over two years old. By late May 2007, the nomination process for the two main parties was completed. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will be represented by former premier and Kaohsiung mayor, Frank Hsieh, while the Kuomintang (KMT) has nominated former party chairman and Taipei mayor Ma Ying-jeou.

In the autumn of 2006, it looked a foregone conclusion that Ma would be the next president. President Chen Shui-bian was facing the huge “Red Shirt” anti-corruption protests and an unprecedented series of KMT initiated recall votes in the legislature. The corruption attacks were centered on his son in law’s insider trading case, and allegations that he and the First Lady had misused the special presidential allowance fund. Earlier corruption scandals had contributed to a landslide KMT victory in the 2005 local executive elections. Following those elections, Ma’s public satisfaction rate stood at 80% compared to only 10% for President Chen. The DPP’s unpopularity was reflected in a mid 2006 party identification survey that gave the KMT a twenty percent lead over the DPP. [Full Text]

Dr Dafydd Fell is the coordinator of the SOAS Taiwan Studies Programme.

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