Political turmoil in Bangladesh reached a climax this month as a student-led protest movement ousted Sheikh Hasina from her 15-year tenure as prime minister. The movement began with peaceful protests against a quota system for public sector jobs amid high youth unemployment and discontent over government corruption. Hasina’s harsh crackdown, in which police killed over a hundred protesters and authorities cut off internet services, transformed the movement into nationwide anti-government riots that forced Hasina to resign and flee the country. An interim government is now overseeing a leadership overhaul of key institutions and preparations for new elections, while students are maintaining order in the streets.
Less than 100 kilometers from Bangladesh’s border, China has been closely monitoring the situation. Geopolitical competition between China and Bangladesh’s mutual neighbor India, domestic reverberations in China, and economic investments in Bangladesh are prime concerns of the Chinese government. So far, it has remained relatively quiet. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson merely stated on August 9 that China “welcomes” the establishment of Bangladesh’s interim government but adheres to the principle of non-interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. Nurul Islam Hasib for the Dhaka Tribune reported on comments on the political situation by Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen on Wednesday:
“Our friendship and cooperation is oriented towards all Bangladeshi people, benefiting all Bangladeshi people, and supported by all Bangladeshi people,” he said after his first meeting with new foreign affairs adviser Md Touhid Hossain on Wednesday at the foreign ministry.
“As a close neighbour and friend of Bangladesh, no matter how the international situation and the domestic situation of Bangladesh change, China will always attach high importance to its relationship with Bangladesh.
“China stands ready to work with Bangladesh to promote bilateral exchanges and cooperation and further advance China-Bangladesh comprehensive strategic Cooperative partnership,” said the ambassador. [Source]
Hasina has been residing in India since fleeing Dhaka. India has historically been the outside power with the most influence in Bangladesh, but the recent changes have generated anxiety in New Delhi about whether China might emerge with better relations with the new Bangladeshi government, given India’s perceived role in supporting Hasina. At The Diplomat last week, Shannon Tiezzi analyzed to what extent might China benefit from the political change in Bangladesh, especially in contrast to India:
“Political turmoil means instability, which is not something China would like to see,” Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, told The Diplomat via email. “It will bring more uncertainty and volatility to Chinese projects in the country.”
[…] China was quite comfortable doing business with Hasina, and in fact the two sides elevated their relationship to the level of a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership” during Hasina’s visit to Beijing in July – less than a month before she fled the country. On the same trip, China and Bangladesh “signed 20+ agreements,” Yun pointed out. “The relationship with China has been doing well during her reign.”
[…] Now, the sense that China was losing ground to India in the competition for influence in Bangladesh under Hasina could turn into a blessing in disguise. New Delhi is widely believed to have supported Hasina, looking the other way as she cracked down on opposition and preventing critics of Hasina’s authoritarian bent – including the U.S. government – from exacting penalties.
[…] With Hasina now gone, India’s all-in approach to [Hasina’s political party] Awami League has turned out to be a bad bet. Beijing will be looking to step in with a larger role as creditor and partner when the next government is formed, pending a fresh round of elections. [Source]
Meanwhile, the political upheaval in Bangladesh has resonated on Chinese social media. Reports that Bangladesh’s stock market made significant gains after Hasina stepped down led some users to draw barbed connections between China’s own political autocracy and economic stagnation. Under a Weibo post from financial news service Cailian (财联社, Cáiliánshè) reporting that Bangladesh’s stock market posted its largest rise in four years, Chinese Weibo users commented, “Now I finally understand why [our] stock market isn’t rising,” and “So that’s the only way to get the stock market to rise.” Cao Li for Nikkei Asia described how some Chinese citizens have seized on the events in Bangladesh to reflect hopes for their own political future:
“China would be the last country to comment on student protests, given its own history,” said Jabin Jacob, an associate professor in the department of international relations and governance studies at India’s Shiv Nadar University.
[…] The Bangladesh protests appear to have resonated with some young Chinese. One university student in Shanghai said he felt a moment of joy when Hasina resigned.
In 2022, he had been locked inside his university dormitory for months under China’s stringent zero-COVID restrictions. When young people in Shanghai started to gather and protest in November that year, calling for an end to the policy, he wanted to join, “but I couldn’t get out of my campus.”
On Chinese social media platforms, the Bangladesh movement has spawned many supportive comments. Some called it a “victory of the people.” One user wrote, “I salute to the brave Bangladesh people.”
Wen Kejian, a Hangzhou-based political researcher, said such voices are “a reflection of the emotions within Chinese society itself being expressed through an external event.” [Source]
Others weighing in on the situation in Bangladesh on Chinese social media highlighted the regret of leaders throughout history, in China and abroad, whose obstinacy in the face of demands for policy change sowed the seeds of their downfall. CDT Chinese archived one essay from the WeChat account 常识流通处 (Chángshí liútōngchù, “General Knowledge Distribution Center”) titled, “Ousted Bangladesh PM Not the Only One to Lament, ‘If Only I’d Known It Would Turn Out This Way, I’d Have Done Things Differently!’”:
Former Prime Minister Hasina, who recently fled Bangladesh, likely shares some of the same regrets as ousted members of other ruling dynasties: “If only I’d known it would turn out this way, I’d have done things differently!” History, however, never gave them the chance.
[…] In this world, when equilibrium is lost, there comes a tipping point. The interests of all stakeholders must be taken into account, and backing people into a corner has consequences. Once political upheaval breaks out, it is too late to offer concessions.
Similar tragedies have occurred throughout history, and will never cease—the cycle will continue. [Chinese]
Chinese state media took a different tune. The Global Times cited Chinese experts who floated the idea that the U.S. government may have been behind the movement to oust Hasina. Another Global Times article detailed how Chinese businesses in Bangladesh rolled out contingency measures to protect its employees and safeguard operations in the country. China has invested about $7.56 billion in Bangladesh since 2005, according to the American Enterprise Institute. Bangladesh-based journalist Redwan Ahmed wrote for the South China Morning Post about the economic issues underpinning the relationship between China and Bangladesh and their potential evolution:
China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totalling 168.4 billion yuan (US$23.6 billion) in 2023, including 161.1 billion yuan of Chinese exports to Bangladesh. Consequently, Bangladesh’s foreign currency reserves face huge pressure due to the trade deficit with China and this in turn has a trickle-down adverse impact on the lives of ordinary Bangladeshis.
Similarly, the leaders will have to relook at the projects built in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative. Bangladesh joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2016, drawn by Chinese loans for big-ticket infrastructure projects it could not afford to pay on its own including roads and railways, power lines and communications grids, seaports and South Asia’s first underwater transport tunnel.
As a result of Bangladesh being the first country in South Asia to join the Belt and Road Initiative, Dhaka was rewarded with a visit by President Xi in 2016. Billions of dollars of project-financing loans to Bangladesh followed, helping to burnish Hasina’s economic credentials.
Speaking at the launch of “The Belt and Road Initiative in Bangladesh” report last September, Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen said China has built “12 roads, 21 bridges and 27 power and energy projects” in Bangladesh while Chinese companies have created more than 550 thousand jobs in the country. [Source]
Translations by Cindy Carter.
