This week, Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held their first formal bilateral meeting in five years, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. India and China have been locked in a tense standoff, fueled by deadly military skirmishes along their border. Their leaders now appear to have finally brokered an agreement to resolve the border crisis, although it remains unclear how extensive the plan is and whether it will lead to a sustained improvement in their bilateral relations. Al Jazeera reported on the official statements at the meeting, which demonstrated mutual goodwill on both sides:
The Chinese leader said the two countries were at a crucial stage of development and “should carefully handle differences and disagreements and facilitate each other’s pursuit of development aspirations.”
“It’s important for both sides to shoulder our international responsibilities, set an example for boosting the strength and unity of the developing countries, and contribute to promoting multi-polarisation and democracy in international relations,” Xi said.
“The two leaders affirmed that stable, predictable, and amicable bilateral relations between India and China, as two neighbours and the two largest nations on earth, will have a positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity,” India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told reporters after the meeting. [Source]
Swift fallout followed a military confrontation in 2020 in the western Himalayas that left 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead. Both countries sent tens of thousands of troops to the border to bolster their respective positions, expelled one another’s journalists, and whipped up nationalist xenophobia. India banned dozens of Chinese apps, and China beefed up military support for Pakistan, India’s rival. During this period, the U.S. increased military collaboration with India in mutual competition against China. The new “détente,” wrote The Economist this week, “could shake up regional geopolitics again.” At Reuters, Krishn Kaushik and Ethan Wang plotted the timeline of India and China’s years of diplomatic antagonism:
Modi and Xi had not held formal bilateral talks since [the 2020 border clash], although both participated in multilateral events. Their last bilateral summit talks were held in October 2019 in the southern Indian town of Mamallapuram.
The two spoke briefly on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali in November 2022. They spoke again on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023 but released different versions of the conversation, suggesting they didn’t see eye to eye.
Xi skipped the G20 summit hosted by New Delhi the following month, a decision seen as another setback to relations.
Diplomatic efforts gained momentum in recent months after the two countries’ foreign ministers met in July and agreed to step up talks to ease the border tensions. [Source]
Listing numerous positive outcomes of the recent Xi-Modi meeting in his Tracking People’s Daily substack, Manoj Kewalramani stated, “This is the first step on a long road to re-engaging, building trust and potential normalisation. A lot has to happen still; and a lot can impede this process still.” He told CNN, “There are many other issues of de-induction and de-mobilization of troops on both sides; infrastructure that has been built, etc. These issues will take time.” Amit Ranjan and Genevieve Donnellon-May echoed these points in the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “Amid the continued cooperation-competition cycle between New Delhi and Beijing, it would be hasty to draw concrete conclusions on the trajectory of the bilateral relationship.”
Other analysts took a more critical stance. Namrata Hasija, a research fellow at the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy in New Delhi, expressed skepticism: “I think it will be India’s major mistake if we feel that the India-China relationship will be back to where it was pre-Galwan just by having this agreement on patrolling,” adding, “China is very good at optics.” Bharat Karnad, a national security expert affiliated with the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, cautioned that the deal was not a breakthrough: “China is stringing India along by agreeing in principle. It will take years by the usual Chinese timetable to negotiate the modalities of patrolling.” Ashok Sharma from the Associated Press described what part of the border might be covered by China and India’s agreement:
[India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram] Misri said the pact would lead to the “disengagement” of troops at the Line of Actual Control, the long Himalayan border shared by the two Asian giants. Misri did not specify whether it means the withdrawal of the tens of thousands of additional troops stationed by the two countries along their disputed border in the northern Ladakh region after their armies clashed in 2020.
Both India and China have withdrawn troops from face-off sites on the northern and southern banks of Pangong Tso, Gogra and Galwan Valley, but they continued to maintain extra troops at Demchok and Depsang Plains.
The two sides have deployed troops in the forward areas of Ladakh for a fifth consecutive winter in freezing temperatures. [Source]
