Last weekend’s Munich Security Conference (MSC) unleashed a geopolitical earthquake that may realign Europe’s relationship with the U.S. and China. U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance delivered a conference speech that The Guardian described as a “blistering attack on Europe’s leaders,” after which he declined an expected meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and instead met with the head of Germany’s far-right party. Sun Chenghao, a participant in the Munich Young Leaders program during the conference, said that Vance’s speech and the “shifts in U.S. policy still caught many [European leaders] off guard” and may “signal a fundamental paradigm shift in U.S. domestic politics and foreign policy” vis-a-vis Europe. On Saturday, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg said Europe would not be a part of peace talks with Russia regarding the war in Ukraine. In response to these developments, which Le Monde described as a “fracturing of the transatlantic relationship,” French President Emmanuel Macron organized an “emergency” meeting of European leaders in Paris on Monday.
The Chinese government and state media outlets have sought to capitalize on the disruption. Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a speech immediately after Vance, projecting stability and arguing that “we should work for an equal and orderly multipolar world.” The Global Times amplified this message with the headline, “China’s constructive role in a shifting world evident at MSC: scholars.” Mathieu Duchatel, director of international studies at the French think tank Institut Montaigne, told VOA this week that “China’s posture is about exploiting the perceived mistakes of any U.S. administration” and that the current tension has created an opportunity for Beijing to “weaken the transatlantic alliance on China policy.” Finbarr Bermingham at the South China Morning Post described how China has positioned itself to benefit from these changing geopolitical dynamics:
In a diplomatic blitz, Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his conservative opponent Friedrich Merz, Nato secretary general Mark Rutte, and counterparts from the European Union, Germany, Spain, and France. On each occasion, according to foreign ministry statements, he pitched China as a partner to Europe and a friend of the existing order.
[…] During a meeting with the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas, meanwhile, Wang “emphasised that China supports all efforts conducive to peace and supports Europe’s important role in the peace talks process,” contrasting with Kellogg’s assertions that Europe should not be involved.
[…] While Wang’s language was not new, it was in stark contrast with Vance’s. The clear conclusion for many observers was that China sees an opening to improve ties with Europe and, potentially, drive a new wedge in the already fraught transatlantic alliance.
“On China’s side, there’s a great opportunity now that the ideological-driven alliance between the US and EU is subject to change,” said Li Cheng, the founding director of the Centre on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong, who described the US’ rhetoric at the summit as “astonishing”. [Source]
However, many Europeans still remain skeptical about whether a closer partnership with China is desirable. “Wolf Warrior” Lu Shaye was recently appointed as China’s Special Representative for European Affairs. German media recently revealed that Wu Ken, the former Chinese ambassador to Germany, had met regularly with the head of Germany’s far-right party at Wu’s personal residence. Following the security conference, Germany’s Der Spiegel published a commentary headlined “China will not help Europe,” and another piece in Spain’s El Paiz argued that “China declares itself a supporter of a multilateral world order, but it does not respect that when it comes to the interests of China’s sphere of influence.” Just before the conference, the European Council on Foreign Relations published the results of a public opinion survey that reveals Europeans’ divided opinions over China and the U.S.:
Respondents are more likely to call the US merely a “necessary partner” rather than an “ally”.
[…] Our poll suggests that neither [aligning with the U.S. or China] would enjoy resounding support among Europeans. True, a plurality of respondents agree that China is a “necessary partner” more than an ally, rival or adversary. But the proportions vary greatly, with southern Europeans most positive towards it (perhaps a reflection of perceived economic advantages) and northern Europeans more dubious (perhaps the sign of cautionary lessons learned about interdependence with China, especially in Germany’s and Denmark’s cases.)
Our poll also finds a slight negative shift in views towards China since May 2023 in countries like Denmark, France, Germany and Poland. That appears to reflect Europe’s ongoing reassessment of its relationship with the Asian giant, including a shift in emphasis at the EU level towards “de-risking.” At the World Economic Forum summit in Davos on January 21st, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, advocated “a more balanced relationship with China” overcoming “economic imbalances.”
Yet the poll also points to the challenges in doing so if, for example, Trump pressures Europeans to join the US in ratcheting up pressure on Beijing. Some of the most China-sceptic countries are also some of the most Trump-sceptic (though Germans are also divided internally, reflecting the varying interests and outlooks of the country’s different industrial sectors). Meanwhile some of those states most open to China, particularly in southern and eastern Europe, are most upbeat about Trump. [Source]
Other media pieces published before the conference highlighted these shifting dynamics. In early February, Yun Sun wrote in Foreign Affairs that Beijing “sees Trump’s second term as a potential opportunity for China to expand its influence farther and faster.” Around the same time, in his latest edition of Watching China in Europe, Noah Barkin discussed how U.S. tariff threats might incentivize a European pivot toward China:
Europe is tentatively preparing to pivot. I was told that early versions of von der Leyen’s speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos in late January were quite hawkish on China. At the last minute, however, she decided to include a sentence describing this year’s 50th anniversary of EU relations with the People’s Republic of China as "an opportunity to engage and deepen our relationship with China—and where possible even to expand our trade and investment ties". The change in tone took some senior officials in Brussels by surprise. But Šefčovič repeated the line at a hearing of the European Parliament’s trade committee last week, a signal that the softer messaging may be here to stay. “We are not going to fight a two-front trade war,” one EU diplomat said, when explaining the new language on China. A Commission official added: “We have to work with the two legs of the triangle. We are not saying we will jump back into bed with China. But it is a signal to the US that they can lose Europe.” If the Trump administration isn’t careful, Europe could come to view Washington as a greater threat than Beijing. [Source]
