This week, Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary To Lam wrapped up a three-day visit to China for his first official foreign visit since becoming his country’s top leader. Lam recently replaced his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong, who died last month after more than 13 years in power. The visit was an opportunity to fortify ties with China amid a moment of political transition that created uncertainty regarding the future of Vietnam’s foreign policy.
Lam traveled to Beijing and Guangdong and held talks with Xi Jinping. Liz Lee from Reuters reported that the two leaders signed 14 deals spanning cross-border railways to crocodile exports, in a demonstration of their countries’ growing bilateral trade and investment:
“China has always regarded Vietnam as a priority in its neighbourhood diplomacy, and supports Vietnam in adhering to the Party leadership, taking the socialist path suited to its national conditions, and deepening the cause of reforms and socialist modernisation,” Xi said, underscoring establishing good working relations and a personal friendship with Lam.
Lam described the bilateral ties as a “top priority in Vietnam’s external policy” and called his trip to China “the affirmation of the Party and the Vietnamese government to value the relation with China”.
Lam during the meeting asked China for soft loans and technology to develop his country’s transport infrastructure and agreed with Xi Jinping to boost defence and security ties, according to a statement on Vietnamese government’s website.
The two also agreed to enhance railways and highway connectivity between the two communist-ruled neighbours and Xi pledged to import more Vietnamese farm produce, the statement said. [Source]
David Hutt from DW reported on how to interpret the timing of Lam’s visit to China and its geopolitical significance:
Zachery Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, warns against putting too much weight on the trip.
“All the reports about Vietnam’s lurch to China under To Lam are totally overblown. The trip had been scheduled months ago,” he told DW.
Newly appointed leaders of Vietnam’s Communist Party tend to first visit traditional allies and neighbors, Cambodia or Laos, after taking office.
However, To Lam had already traveled to both countries in July after being elected state president.
“China is always the first stop after a Vietnamese leader travels to Laos and Cambodia,” Abuza added. [Source]
Historical amity and enmity still shape Vietnam’s present-day international relations. Wary of the U.S.’ longstanding opposition to communism, Lam and Xi agreed to ramp up their information exchange and experience sharing on “anti-interference … and prevention of ‘color revolutions’ to jointly maintain political security,” according to the joint declaration. In The Diplomat, Khang Vu argued that Lam’s visit reflects the contrasting positions that China and the U.S. occupy in Vietnam’s foreign policy. For example, in contrast to its relationship with the U.S., Vietnam’s relationship with China draws on geographical proximity and a strong shared alignment on communist governance, which is a unique motivation for China’s interest in robust bilateral relations:
Contrary to some suggestions that political cooperation between China and Vietnam mostly benefits Vietnam, China has much to gain from a politically stable Vietnam as well due to the two nations’ shared land border. It is worth noting that China assisted Vietnam in its wars against France and the United States for that exact reason, because China could not be safe when Vietnam was under attack. Even leaving aside its general aversion to regime change, China is more resistant to advocating for political change in Vietnam compared to the United States due to the different risks that this might pose. The United States will not have to bear the consequences of a politically unstable Vietnam because of its geographic detachment. The same is not true of China. The two countries’ determination to preserve a peaceful land border is clear in their statement, which states that both Hanoi and Beijing will work to strengthen cooperation in the border area and celebrate the 25th anniversary of the 1999 Vietnam-China Land Border Treaty.
Close Vietnam-China political cooperation does not suggest that Vietnam needs China’s support to survive as a communist country, but learning from the Chinese experience definitely helps Vietnam navigate the uncertainty of economic reforms and international integration. It is not a coincidence that during Lam’s visit, Vietnam and China agreed to expand cooperation between the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics and the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party. When visiting the Central Party School, Lam personally remarked that Vietnam could learn from how China trained its Party cadres. [Source]
Under Vietnam’s flexible foreign policy of “bamboo diplomacy,” it has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with China, the U.S., Russia, India, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. Lam is also expected to visit the U.S. in September during the U.N. General Assembly. The Economist speculated about how Lam might continue balancing China and the U.S.:
Mr Lam, having spent a career focused on internal security, could be less attuned to external threats than a rival from the armed forces might have been. He might therefore look toward a fellow communist and authoritarian superpower on Vietnam’s northern border more than to America, even as Chinese and Vietnamese ships occasionally square off in the South China Sea. But Mr Lam will be mindful that the party’s legitimacy also demands that it should defend Vietnam’s sovereignty against aggression from the north. The two fought a brief border war in 1979, and China remains unpopular in Vietnam. Le Kha Phieu, who was general secretary from 1997 to 2001, was removed by the Politburo, in part for getting too close to Beijing. [Source]
Despite their shared politics, China and Vietnam have butted heads in the South China Sea, where conflicting territorial claims have caused tensions. Vietnam’s coast guard visited the Philippines this month for joint maritime drills, and recent reports have shown that Vietnam has copied China’s island-building tactics in order to bolster territorial claims. But Liu Zhen from the South China Morning Post reported that during Lam’s trip to China this week, both countries committed to renew diplomacy over South China Sea disputes and issued a joint declaration pledging “friendly consultations”:
The joint declaration issued after Lam and Xi’s meeting reiterated the “high-level consensus” to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, and mostly repeated the lines of the agreement made last year.
“[The two sides] will continue to actively seek a fundamental and sustainable solution that is acceptable to both sides through friendly consultations,” the declaration said.
[…] “[We] will refrain from actions that will complicate the situation and aggravate disputes,” it said.
The declaration reiterated the need for promoting joint maritime development and accelerating talks on maritime delimitation in the Gulf of Tonkin. [Source]
Meanwhile, Chinese state media were eager to portray Lam’s visit in a positive light. A Global Times editorial trumpeted the solidity of China-Vietnam ties in the context of geopolitical competition with the U.S.:
Some Western media outlets often like to observe the development of China-Vietnam relations through the lens of great power competition or geopolitics, often drawing one-sided and narrow conclusions. The relationship between China and Vietnam, as “comrades and brothers,” transcends geopolitics. These are two socialist countries connected by mountains and rivers, sharing culture, ideals, and a common destiny. In the traditional friendship established by the older generations of leaders of both parties and countries, they have continuously overcome challenges and cooperated to gradually form a close and solid relationship. This kind of relationship will continue to progress in development, fearless of provocation, and able to face challenges head-on. [Source]
