Andy Xie: Scare and Dare

From Morgan Stanley:

The market is challenging the US Federal Reserve and China to tighten further. Even though China’s crude imports have been falling and the dollar has rebounded substantially, prices continue to rise. Inflation talk by the Fed and declining imports by China have not scared away speculators. The market is now the hub of financial speculation. The Fed may have to follow through on its rhetoric and raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting to contain speculation, in my view.

Though financial markets have stabilized in the past week, the spring scare is not over, in my view. Both the US and China have to talk down the oil market to prolong their growth cycles. I believe the scare will only end with a collapse of the oil market.

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