Viral video and transcripts of two unusually critical speeches about the state of the Chinese economy—by economists Gao Shanwen and Fu Peng, respectively—have been deleted from multiple platforms almost as fast as netizens can share them. In a speech in Shenzhen on December 3, Gao Shanwen (chief economist for SDIC Securities) analyzed concerning regional data on high youth unemployment, pointed to the undercounting of unemployed and discouraged workers, and suggested that China’s GDP growth over the last few years has been significantly overstated. In a closed-door event for HSBC in Shanghai on November 24, Fu Peng (chief economist for brokerage house Northeast Securities) noted that while lower-income workers suffer the most during periods of economic contraction, their travails hardly make a dent in the macro-economic data. Afterward, it was rumored that Fu had been summoned by regulatory authorities displeased with his remarks, but Fu himself denied the rumors. Now it appears that both Gao and Fu’s WeChat accounts have been shut down, likely in retaliation for their frank assessments of the troubled Chinese economy.

In the wake of 2 viral speeches about the grim state of the Chinese economy, the authorities shut down the WeChat accts of the 2 speakers – economists Gao Shanwen 高善文 and Fu Peng 付鹏. In the CCP playbook, censorship can improve the economy, just as it could stop the spreading… pic.twitter.com/3so2yXunEM

— Yaxue Cao (@YaxueCao) December 6, 2024

A video report and longer news article from Bloomberg noted the “unusual candor” of Gao Shanwen’s speech, which highlighted concerns that demographic disparities are dragging down the Chinese economy, as young households curtail consumption in response to low wages and a weak labor market, middle-aged households suffer from layoffs and economic uncertainty, while older households enjoy greater stability and a healthier financial cushion:

“The younger a province’s population is, the slower its consumption growth has been,” Gao said at an investor conference in Shenzhen on Tuesday, citing his analysis of regional data. In public remarks live-streamed on several platforms, he described China’s post-pandemic society as being “full of vibrant old people, lifeless young people and despairing middle-aged people.”

The unsparing remarks quickly drew attention on China’s social media including Weibo, where videos and transcripts of Gao’s speech have been trending. The candor was all the more unusual at a time when local analysts try to moderate their language or even censor certain words such as “deflation,” as officials call for creating a more positive narrative around the economy.

Many of the recordings and notes of Gao’s speech posted on Weibo and WeChat have been removed by Wednesday morning, with some of the pages showing there were complaints that the content violated rules for online public accounts. [Source]

For Nikkei Asia, Stella Yifan Xie reported that Gao and Fu’s candid speeches challenged official government narratives promising “bright prospects” for the Chinese economy:

China likely overstated its gross domestic product by 10 percentage points over the past three years, said Gao Shanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities, who has advised Chinese policymakers in the past. Meanwhile, he said that a total of 47 million people were unable to find formal jobs during the same period, suggesting a massive undercounting of joblessness, according to a transcript of his speech.

[…] Gao is not the only expert to cause a stir recently. Last month, Fu Peng, chief economist at Chinese brokerage Northeast Securities, said the official consumer price index is a poor measure of domestic demand due to the oversized weighting of volatile food prices. Instead, he said that surveying the state of low-skill workers such as delivery people and ride-hailing service drivers would offer a more accurate gauge of the health of the broader economy, adding that he believes a shrinking middle class is the biggest challenge facing the Chinese economy.

"Whenever the economy contracts, it’s those at the bottom who suffer the most at first," Fu said at a closed-door event in Shanghai on Nov. 24, a transcript of which circulated online over the weekend. "However, that barely has any impact on the macro economic data."

Both speeches sparked a buzz on social media, with many praising the economists as "rare" macro analysts with "conscientiousness." One user on Weibo, an X-like social platform in China, wrote that the analysis resonated with the public like "one stone that stirred up a thousand waves."

"They spoke the truth and hit the nail on the head," the user wrote. "It’s time to wake up and stop being intoxicated by the dream of prosperous times." [Source]

A report from Reuters described the online censorship that followed Gao and Fu’s speeches, and the recent shuttering of both economists’ WeChat accounts:

Gao’s speech was shared online and went viral on social media, but access was later blocked. Local online news reports that had carried his comments were also not accessible.

Attempts to follow Gao’s blog on WeChat, or reach him there, were blocked by the platform with a notice that the account had violated rules.

[…] When Reuters checked Fu’s account on Friday, a notice said access had been blocked.

[…] In October, the Cyberspace Administration of China – the country’s cyberspace regulator – said it had launched a special campaign to better regulate online news and information and would "rectify" any illegal conduct, following increased scrutiny over independent content creators online including commentaries. [Source]

Such censorship of economic content reflects the extreme sensitivity of expert opinions that repudiate or deviate from the official government narrative on the economy, or that question official economic statistics or overall management of the economy. Even nationalist pundit Hu Xijin was banned from posting online for a time (he has since been reinstated) due to comments on the private economy that seemingly fell afoul of the Party line following the Third Plenum last summer. CDT editors have archived numerous speeches and articles from prominent Chinese economists, academics, and pundits over the past several years, many of them censored.